“Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt today trimmed his estimates for Apple’s fiscal Q1 ended last month, after concluding that the iPhone probably sold better than he thought, but that Amazon.com‘s ‘Kindle Fire’ tablet computer probably stole a couple of million units worth of sales from Apple’s iPad,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s. “McCourt maintains an Outperform rating on Apple stock, but he cut his price target to $513 from a prior $530.”
We expect iPad revenues to generate 21.3% of revenues in the Dec. quarter for Apple, up from 17.2% in the year ago period although down from 24.3% in the previous quarter. We are lowering our unit shipment estimates for iPad in the Dec. quarter from 16 million to 13 million. Based on data from Amazon, we believe the Amazon Fire [sic] likely sold 4-5 million units this holiday season, which probably means maybe 1-2 million cannibalized iPad sales at most. – Morgan Keegan analyst Tavis McCourt
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Amazon said they sold “over four million combined sales of the Kindle Fire and Kindle line in December, including the regular touch and e-paper models,” as reported by Electronista on December 29th.
All Kindles, including cheapo $79 black and white e-readers, combined sold “over 4 million units” in December.
That is the only “data” from Amazon that has been released. Kindle Fire was released on November 15, 2011. Unless McCourt has his own private data from Amazon (highly doubtful) which shows that multiple millions of Kindle Fire sales magically transpired during the last two weeks of November, his mistake, if that’s what it is, is blatant and criminally stupid.
If your financial analyst is Morgan Keegan’s Tavis McCourt, you have our pity and some advice: Get a new analyst; preferably one who can read.
Related articles:
Amazon claims over 4 million Kindles sold in December – December 29, 2011
Tablet display shootout: Apple iPad ‘excellent,’ Amazon Kindle Fire ‘major flaws’ – December 20, 2011
If Amazon’s Kindle Fire is so hot, why is it still in stock? – December 19, 2011
‘Kindle Fire: The Missing Manual’ author to return Kindle Fire, keep his ‘years ahead’ Apple iPad 2 – December 15, 2011
Amazon touts Kindle e-reader sales with few details – December 15, 2011
Amazon’s tiny screen Kindle Fire’s big security problem – December 14, 2011
Lack of parental controls on Amazon’s tiny screen Kindle Fire lets kids charge up a storm – December 12, 2011
Disgruntled early adopters of Amazon’s tiny screen Kindle Fire have slew of complaints – December 12, 2011
Amazon’s tiny screen Kindle Fire estimated to play distant second fiddle to Apple’s market-dominating iPad – December 6, 2011
Usability expert Jakob Nielsen tests Amazon’s tiny screen Kindle Fire: ‘A disappointingly poor user experience’ – December 5, 2011
Instapaper creator reviews Amazon’s tiny screen Kindle Fire: Bad game player, bad app platform, bad web browser, bad video player and bad Kindle – November 18, 2011
PCWorld reviews Amazon’s tiny-screen Kindle Fire: Flawed, unimpressive, subpar; can’t hold a candle to iPad – November 16, 2011
Mossberg reviews Amazon’s tiny-screen Kindle Fire: Frustrating, clunky, much less capable and versatile than iPad – November 16, 2011
Apple iPad 2 vs. Amazon Kindle Fire: Bootup, browsing, and Netflix streaming (with video) – November 16, 2011
Wired reviews Amazon’s tiny-screen Kindle Fire: Web browsing sucks, emotionally draining, makes reading a chore – November 14, 2011
NY Times’ Pogue reviews Amazon’s tiny-screen Kindle Fire: Sluggish, ornery, unpolished – November 14, 2011
The Verge reviews Amazon’s tiny-screen Kindle Fire: Uninspired, confusing, incredibly unoriginal – November 14, 2011
Engadget reviews Amazon’s tiny-screen Kindle Fire: Sluggish, clunky, too limiting and restricted – November 14, 2011
PC Magazine reviews Apple iOS 5: The best phone and tablet OS, Editors’ Choice – October 15, 2011
The Guardian reviews Apple iPad 2: Ahead of the pack – March 25, 2011
The Telegraph reviews Apple iPad 2: Does everything better; now’s the perfect time to join the iPad club – March 25, 2011
Computerworld reviews Apple’s iPad 2: ‘The Holy Grail of computing’ – March 16, 2011
Ars Technica reviews Apple iPad 2: Big performance gains in a slimmer package
Associated Press reviews Apple iPad 2: Apple pulls further ahead – March 10, 2011
PC Mag reviews Apple iPad 2: The tablet to get; Editors’ Choice – March 10, 2011
Associated Press reviews Apple iPad 2: Apple pulls further ahead – March 10, 2011
PC Mag reviews Apple iPad 2: The tablet to get; Editors’ Choice – March 10, 2011
Pogue reviews Apple iPad 2: Thinner, lighter, and faster transforms the experience – March 10, 2011
Baig reviews Apple iPad 2: Second to none – March 10, 2011
Anal-yst… if Only Apple would communicate more effectively on a regular basis to put these guys out of business 🙁
“Kindle Fire was released on November 15, 2011. Unless McCourt has his own private data from Amazon (highly doubtful)”
He doesn’t, that’s why he said “which PROBABLY MEANS MAYBE 1- 2 million cannibalized iPad sales, at most”
He is estimating, which is his job to do.. Without hard data, it seems a fair estimate of Kindle Fire sales IMO.
You’re more stupid than even Tavis McCourt. You should be studied in a lab environment as it’s amazing that your brain can even generate involuntary actions like breathing to keep your unnecessary carcass alive.
cute. (and mature) lol
For the sake of mild entertainment, rev up your fused ganglia, if you can, and attempt to explain to us all how McCourt’s numbers, based on an incorrect reading of the Kindle sales data supplied by Amazon, nonetheless miraculously seem to you to be “a fair estimate of Kindle Fire sales.”
na na na na na… you’re wrong, I’m right. Na na na na na..
(sorry, for the adults here.. but I knew logic wouldn’t prevail, so i had to bring things down to a level he might understand.)
Unfortunately, to go along with his rapier-like wit, Superior Being has logic on his side, too.
Obviously, MikeK, you’re incapable of revving up your fused ganglia.
You misread his misreading.
His claim of “probably 1-2 million cannibalized iPad sales, at most” implies that 25-50% of the reported Kindle sales would have otherwise been iPad sales.
But he obviously misread 4-5 million Kindle sales as “4-5 million Kindle FIRE” sales since the other Kindles are nothing but eReaders and couldn’t possibly have cannibalized iPad sales.
If HALF of the total Kindle sales were Fires, then he’s saying that 50-100% of Kindle Fire sales were people who would have otherwise bought an iPad, and THAT is an absurd statement.
There is no hard proof that Kindle Fire sales are cannibalizing iPad sales unless the consumers that bought Kindle Fires actually said they decided to buy the Kindle Fire instead of an iPad. As near as I’ve heard, consumers that are buying Kindle Fires never intended to buy iPads because of the higher price. $199 is very far away from $499 and the capabilities of the Kindle Fire are honestly not that close to the iPad’s capabilities in terms of features or depth of the ecosystem. McCourt idea of cannibalism of iPads is like him saying that consumers buying Nissan Sentras are hurting BMW or Mercedes-Benz sales. Maybe in some very indirect meaning it’s possible, but consumers buying some low-end Nissan doesn’t affect BMW or Mercedes-Benz to any considerable degree. McCourt is making a very huge assumption and I personally think he is wrong.
I don’t have a beef with McCourt because no matter what he says it’s not going to alter Apple’s share price at all. Apple’s share price has already been determined and it will be kept low, much lower than any Apple bulls are willing to accept. Apple is selling the balls off it’s products and the company is doing far better than most any tech company on the planet thanks to disruption of rivals products at so many levels. Wall Street can’t seem to accept that and they’re always looking for ways to devalue Apple’s share price. I’ve already gotten used to this fact and McCourt’s assessment isn’t worth squat.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/315207-apple-analysts-perpetually-clueless
“…which probably means maybe 1-2 million cannibalized iPad sales at most.”
Regardless of whether this guy has his numbers right (doubtful), one company’s sales coming at the expense of another company is not cannibalization. If people were buying iPod touches instead of an iPad, then you could say the iPod was cannibalizing the iPad.
They are just trying to bury their google results of lawsuits, fleeing investors, and losses with Apple link-bait. Oh, and they are apparently for sale.
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/morning_call/2011/12/another-team-of-advisors-leave-morgan.html
Tavis,
What’s an “Amazon Fire”?
As pointed out a few eels ago:
Barron’s new agenda is Apple FUD
“He notes that projected 17% year-over-year growth in [Mac] units for Apple last quarter would actually be better than the expected flat year-over-year performance for the PC industry as a whole. ”
Earth to McCourt: Apple is not the PC industry. Apple is in competition with the PC industry. They TAKE sales from the PC industry. Apple’s number are INVERSELY related to the PC industry numbers. 17%? How about 27%?
all i care about is who makes the money on what they are selling Amazon i understand is loosing money selling these electronic catalogs (thats about all they do) the more they eat soup with a fork the faster these ugly toys will disappear forever next he will tell us about the percentage of market share the free android has ignoring the one company making actual money on phones APPLE lets analyze profit percentage of all moneys spent on phones and pads and see who has 90 + precent