“Google’s mobile VP Andy Rubin [has] posted word that Android device activations were now up to 700,000 each day,” Electronista reports. “The rate comes after months of the company claiming a flat 550,000 per day. He had no update on the activation growth rate or whether Google had moved significantly beyond the 200 million total devices switched on since Android launched in October 2008.”
“The figure includes only genuinely new devices, not resets or upgrades,” Electronista reports. “These also only include cellular devices, he said, implying that all Wi-Fi tablets and phones without service may boost the real count higher. Google has never broken out activations by device type, but it’s known that phones vastly outnumber slow-selling tablets, MP3 players, and Google TV.”
Electronista reports, “Apple hasn’t updated its activation figures for roughly a year and can’t be directly compared without more information. It still has a larger user base of 250 million or more iOS users.”
Read more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews readers too numerous to mention individually for the heads up.]
There’s over 7 billion turds dropped a day too.
Yes but not too shabby for a stolen product on its cresting craptastic way down the mount. I see precious little Android lovers love to talk up that’s worth the fuss and inferior user experience. Stuff only geeks truly love and BOGOF cheapskates. Excuse me while I have a life instead.
What they will not tell you is that this a fscking major slowdown. In June they announced 500K with 4.4% week on week growth.
A simple calculation suggests that they should have crossed 700K in August already and now should be at 1500K.
Alas, they only now done 700K, a +60 million a quarter.
The iPhone is expecte to cross 30 million units, iPad 13 million and the iPod touch anything from 10 million, not far away from this ‘amazing’ Android number which is an aggregate of hundreds of devices from hundreds of OEMs.
Great point. If Google really wants to impress the world with the number, then the rate of growth matters. So essentially Android is slowing down, which coincides with HTC’s number. Down, there we go, Android, the thief.
It doesn’t make the devices any good and it doesn’t mean the manufacturers are making any real money on them. Sales figures are meaningless beyond having to be big enough to remain relevant. Profit is what matters.
… it doesn’t count the cost (or variety) of those devices. Sure, there are 700k new Android devices registered per day. That’s nearly twice as many as the iOS devices registered per day. But, WAIT! A third of those are the various models from HTC and the rest are various models from lesser manufacturers. Apple’s phones sell nearly twice as often as HTC’s, the largest Android maker.
“Profit is what matters.”
*DING* See my elaboration on this point below…
Yet, I’m still focused on profit share. If you see Horace Dediu’s work, you’ll not that selling the most widgets and making the most money are two very different things…
Apple to Google: “You’re welcome”.
Putting it into perspective, 700k activations a day translates to 21m activations a month. Last quarter Apple sold 17.3m iPhones which is expected to rise to 24m for this quarter. Figures being bandied about of 30m iPhone sales this quarter are completely unrealistic given that the 4S is being rolled out gradually to all markets in a phased schedule.
Andy Rubin is not being straightforward here. 700k is a peak number in the pre-christmas week. You can’t just use as an average going forward. More like 500k. Also as more windows phones come to the market this number will drop to 300k activations a day.
Also the above number is for DEVICES. Apple is expected to sell about 57M IOS devices by Horace Dediu this quarter. This is for iphones, ipads and ipod touches. This is about 636K activations per day. Not bad, huh? This is particularly powerful story for developers. On Android you would have to develop for hundreds of different phones, different manufactures, different app stores with different rules, etc. In the end you also get a budget customer who is much. much less likely to pay for apps.
How about this for a story?
Agred. Good analysis, especially the point about developing apps for a fragmented market and having to contend with a myriad of different devices with inconsistent specifications. Although volume might be greater on paper, in reality the number of devices an app can cover is a smaller subset than the iPhone. This will impact on a developer’s ROI. Given the finite amount of time and resources a developer has to dedicate to developing an app, responding to enquiries, improving the app, iOS would certainly get the lion’s share of development effort.
There’s no doubt in my mind that using a device is an order of magnitude more fluent on the Apple ecosystem than on Android.
Bigger question I have is whether those activations are pure Android devices or if it includes Android-oid devices that cut Google out of the equation, like the Kindle Fire or Color Nook, the Chinese market phones that use Baidu, the Verizon phones that replaced Google with Bing, and the low end feature phones that use an older barely-recognizable-as-Android version of Android?
Of course Rubin is including those un-Android devices! As Dmitri said, Rubin is not being straightforward here.
B.L.Nut: “Figures being bandied about of 30m iPhone sales this quarter are completely unrealistic given that the 4S is being rolled out gradually to all markets in a phased schedule.”
So you seriously doubt that Apple can sell 30m iPhones this quarter? Care to expand on that beyond what you already said? I thought that AT&T and Verizon were selling significantly more than half of that number …
I think the US will make up 40% of iPhone sales this quarter as opposed to 25% in other quarters simply because the iPhone 4S will have been available the longest here. Given that and that 4m iPhones were sold in the first week of release, I’m assuming that since supply constraints are off, either one of two things must have happened. Supply has caught up with demand by ramping up manufacturing or demand has fallen off to match supply. I think the likelier of the two scenarios is more plausible given that Apple would probably be running the same supply lines as the iPhone 4 with minimal retooling and would simply add assembly lines to meet new demand and spread manufacturing across to a second supplier, Pegatron. I doubt Apple will add significant manufacturing capacity as idle lines are expensive. So what Apple will do is increase supply on a graduated basis to meet anticipated demand which may undershoot actual demand.
The question that arises is can Apple maintain a steady demand curve of 30m iPhones per quarter. I don’t think this is feasible at the moment given that the 4S is not a huge redesign over the 4 and Apple is simply selling to 3G and 3GS upgraders rather than targeting new markets. So, if you overshoot supply in one quarter how do you scale back supply in another quarter. I don’t think that’s Apple’s game. Their game is to manage supply and even it out quarter over quarter and so I think 24m is a reasonable number to shoot for.
And so I think US sales will comfortably take up 9.6m of the 24m which will be sold in the proportion of 30% EMEA and 30% Asia for the rest of the world. The critical part of the puzzle that’s missing that will drive sales beyond 24m is China which has not seen the iPhone 4S launch there yet.
So Google says…
I believe it when I see it. So far I can only see iPhones wherever I travel.
He says it doesn’t include resets and software upgrades, but does not mention replacement service handsets.
Everyone loves to say that market share isn’t important, that profits are where it counts, and from one angle, this is true.
However, we need to remember one important thing: what is it that maker a platform attractive to consumers? Among other things a very important one is the abundance of good applications for it. And what attracts developers to a platform? Market share!
Now, obviously, market share alone is obviously NOT enough to convince developers. There are other factors: the quality of that market share (whether those users are thieves/cheapskates who expect everything for free, or get illegal copies), the usability of the platform, the eco-system it comes with, etc. And clearly, these are the reasons why vast majority of developers for mobile continue to develop first for iOS, and then (if at all) for Android, even though its market share against Android has been shrinking for a while.
Make no mistake: market share is a VERY important factor for a platform, and Apple is most certainly aware of this (they’ve already gone through this whole exercise once, remember?).
After reading your comments, I still have one question: are you suggesting that Apple’s current market share is inadequate to maintain an attractive ecosystem? Your comments are generalizations that don’t point to any specific conclusion — other than “market share may matter — but then again, not always.”
I don’t see that market share is much of a concern for the iPhone. Apple is selling every unit it makes, so its market share is limited mainly by the capital investments and production decisions of top management — Steve Jobs and Tim Cook.
I seriously doubt that either would want to increase market share very much, given the likelihood it would undercut the iPhone’s image of exclusivity and lower its profit margins if price cuts were implemented to sell another (say) 10-20 million units per quarter. Their way of increasing sales has been to expand into new markets (China, Brazil, UK, etc.) rather than focus on its share of any given market.
If we could ask Steve Jobs, I bet he would say that Apple languished in the 1980s because of poor management and low product quality (little innovation) rather than its inattention to market share. This perspective differs somewhat from your closing statement, which suggests that Apple’s iPhone strategy should take heed of the Mac’s problems 20 years ago.
And Android’s market share advantage (if it’s even real) is more than overcome by characteristics of the Android market that you mention and more, e.g. fragmentation, lack of centralized marketing and distribution, a pervasive free/open mentality, low/free pricing leading to a high proportion of device sales to users uninterested in smart phone aspects, a more cumbersome development environment, and more.
The result is far lower developer interest in the Android market. That isn’t theory, Pedrag; it’s a sad reality for the Android world that no likely amount of market share will overcome.
I reactivated my motodroidolla Android ice cream cone twice just yesterday.
The above number is for DEVICES and is the average in the pre-christmas week. The average number for this quarter will much less. Max 550k but more likely ~500K.
Apple is expected to sell about 57M IOS devices by Horace Dediu this quarter. This is for iphones, ipads and ipod touches. This is about 636K activations per day.
Do reactivations count? I bet they are counting those.
Learn how to read:
“The figure includes only genuinely new devices, not resets or upgrades,” Electronista reports.
android customers have started to flow to iOS. 1st ten 4G Android sufferers are burning through batteries… and oh sorry you have a 2 year contract on your EVO which is EOL and won’t get upgraded to ice cream sandwich. with Apple iOS is built to be quality user experience up to date through the 2 year contract cycle. burning through droids is bad for the planet, eating up raw materials and creating waste.
Problem with those number is that android is so “open” that it runs in a lot of crap, so many devices are bigger than average phone and lower than the average tablet (ipad) so they count them as phone and also as tablet at the same time.
Also, Android is running in thousands of experimental boards.
And finally, google counts “upgrades’ as “activations”
If you look at the REAL USAGE of android vs iPhone, androids is even lower than Black Berries.
Those are the real numbers they should talk about.
I’ve gone the other way for now. I got the Galaxy Nexus unlocked on AT&T and to be honest I’m really digging it.
I have had an iPhone since the original 4gb all the way up to and including the 4S, which is now back in it’s box in my drawer.
Will I keep using Android? I don’t know yet. I really like it.
That being said, I don’t believe the story about 700k activations, they have to be double or even triple counting there.
Sure, TheVelvetHammer, you bought an iPhone 4S a couple of months ago–complete with multi-year contract–and now you’ve thrown it into a drawer to languish (and continue to cost you every month) while you use your new Nexus. Un-huh…
So tell us what you “really like” about the Nexus compared to the iPhone 4S. Is it the lack of apps, especially quality apps? Is it the gigantic size of the device? Perhaps it’s the pitiful battery life or its occasional unresponsiveness or chunkiness in user interaction? Help us out here…
“I don’t believe the story about 700k activations, they have to be double or even triple counting there”
At least we can agree on that…
just like the days when lots of windows computers were sold but didn’t last as long as a mac, the important thing here is activations minus deactivations because the cheap phones (esp. in china) don’t last very long.
“Apple hasn’t updated its activation figures for roughly a year ”
Activating iPhones? I’m pretty sure they announce iPhone/iOS sales every 3 months, bro. Apple’s a hardware maker.
Not only that, but Apple’s sales numbers are audited, unlike Google’s fabricated “activations” fairy tale.
I know it’s best to make a profit on hardware but…. Here we go again. Isn’t there some way in the beginning of iPhone platform they could have done licensing. Being dominate in volume does count in the end…. I hate to say but look at MicroShaft….
Apple tried that in the 90’s with Mac and they’ll never do it again.
Who cares? As a consumers you get to choose the best product and as a shareholder you get to enjoy massive profits. Be like Microsoft or Google for the sake of market share? No thank you.
To what end?
Is anyone tracking the manner of deactivations? Crushing, drowning, electric shock…
*coughs* B.S.!!! *coughs*. Yes, I’m an Apple devotee who loves their beautiful & simplified products over Android or BB’s any day. However, I’m a 32 yr old female that sees friends go through phones often. The only people my age that I know that DON’T have an iPhone is because they have pre-paid plans to save $/therefore can’t afford the steep price of an unlocked iPhone (the 4S anyhow). The people I know that have BB’s dislike them intensely (all but 1/don’t know why he likes it since it rarely works!!); Android users in general hate their phones (owners I know & ones that I don’t) because they have limited app access compared to Apple/ get a lot more spam etc. Anyone I know would prefer an iPhone if they can afford to be under contract in one/pay those monthly bills. How is it that in this day & age that there are still those that go against Apple (when they CAN afford it) & waste time w/an Android phone or BB?! Makes no sense to me unless you don’t have the $$. I wanted an Android a long time ago too, before I realized that Apple just makes better technology. *no flames please; just IMO!*
You know, I feel the same way. I rarely ever see Android phones in the wild. I am under impression that Google reports activations for selective peak days (e.g., pre-christmass) to improve awareness / attractiveness of Android platform among developers.
“700,000 each day” that equals about 699,990 returns each following day.
Exactly. There’s no mention of deactivations.
Fragdroids grow obsolete within months and a huge number are discarded for cheaper newer models especially with all the bogoffs and fire sales going on.
Hmmm… and Microsoft gets a $5.00 Royalty… If Apple were to do the same at say $10.00, then…
700,000 x $10.00 = $7,000,000 a day, times 360 days is $$2,520,000,000.00…
I’ll take it!!!
There is also no information as to how many Android deactivations there are a day. Considering the level of fragmentation and the fact that there are Android phones being sold right now that can’t run the latest version of the OS I would imagine that the handset turnover rate is vastly higher than that of an IOS device. Great for device makers and carriers bad for consumers.
I have an iPhone and I do have an Android. The Android is pay as you go. Each month I have the option to activate or not, so technically each month I have a new activation. Virgin Mobile gives you that flex on my Motorola Triumph.
QUESTION: How much profit is Google making per Android device activation? Any? If so, how? Via market surveillance of the victims, then selling that data to companies for target advertising? Is that ALL that Android is for? Surveillance and marketing? Is so, no wonder it’s crap.
Correction: IF so, no wonder it’s crap.