Asymco: Apple estimated to sell 225-280 million iOS devices in 2012

“There are several methods I turn to when estimating device sales,” Horace Deidu reports for Asymco. “The first is to look at so-called top-down views of the demand… This Approach yields an estimate of 225 million iOS devices to be sold in 2012.”

“The second approach is to look at supply,” Deidu reports. “Using this method I currently estimate 260 million iOS units for 2012.”

Deidu reports, “The third approach is to attempt to measure customers’ loyalties and competitiveness of vendors. If we know the probability of upgrades and the historic split between ‘new’ and ‘existing’ users then we can roll the forecast forward… This yields a forecast of 280 million iOS devices to be sold in 2012.”

Much more in the full article, including the usual excellent charts and graphs, here.

MacDailyNews Take: Perhaps this sort of reality check will help to jolt AAPL out of its irrational stupor?


    1. Are you kidding? Microsoft Windows is on about one billion PCs and still growing. iOS will never catch up to Windows as iOS growth rates are already coming to a standstill as Android smartphones continue to flood the market and leaving iOS devices from gaining any more forward momentum. Wall Street is betting on the iPhone and iPads rapid demise now that Steve Jobs is gone. Tim Cook’s next planned device called iToaster selling for $499 isn’t expected to be received well on Wall Street in 2012. Without Steve Jobs, Apple has already run out of ideas to wow consumers.
      I see that Apple shares are up today, so they can be shorted tomorrow. $360 awaits Apple investors.

      1. “Microsoft Windows is on about one billion PCs and still growing”

        Ehhhhh, don’t be too sure about the “growing” part regarding Microsoft, IMO. One thing for sure, Apple’s market share is definitely growing and there’s lots of headroom before AAPL truly encounters the Law of Large Numbers. There’s a major shift in computer use and Apple is reaping the benefits of creating a better system.

    1. Optimistic? You forgot about China. They love Apple there and the company’s barely scratched the surface of the market.

      Look at a globe or map some time and you’ll notice there are other major territories that Apple’s about to get into.

  1. The big growth in the future will be China and, later on, India. Let’s remember that these two nations alone make up nearly one-third of the world’s population. To put things in perspective, the population of China is roughly equal to *two* of United States and *all* of Europe. And India will soon overtake China as the most populous nation in the world.

    Apple still has plenty of room for growth in the developed nations around the world as well but, personally, I highly doubt Apple will gain and maintain majority market share like Windows/Office in the PC market does. And I wouldn’t want that either. Apple would cease to be cool when the market share gets beyond 50%. Just go for the top 30~40% and develop new high-end markets.

    But Apple still has a long way to go to even attain 30% global market share with the iPhone and the Mac – real long way… But I can see Apple maintaining dominance in the tablet market with the iPad but even there I think they’ll eventually fall below majority and give the scraps to bottom feeders like Amazon, Samsung, Dell, Asus, Acer, HP, etc.

    Can you imagine nearly 700 million iOS devices per year in 5 years? Nearly 2 million devices being produced and sold *per day*? Even the current numbers are hard to fathom. Just shows you that the world is actually a lot bigger than we tend to think.

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