UBS: Apple could sell 42.5 million iPhone units in Christmas quarter; ‘Buy’ rating, $510 price target

UBS‘s Maynard Um offers “a rather surprising scenario for iPhone units this quarter to be quite a bit higher than currently expected if Apple’s roll-out of international phone carriers were to proceed,” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s. “And that could add another $3.09 to his current $9.47 per share estimate for EPS:”

In CY3Q the US/Int’l iPhone split was roughly 27.5% US & 72.5% Int’l. For calendar Q4, assuming total US units of ~11.7mn (AT&T 6mn, Verizon 4.5mn, & Sprint 1.2m) and based on our 28m forecast, the implied split would be 42%/58% US/Int’l. While the timing of the 70 (of 105) country launches could have some impact on sales ahead of the launch, the split, and hence, our estimates look conservative. A similar 27.5%/72.5% split from this qtr would imply ~42.5m units in CY4Q or upside of 14.5m iPhones.

Ray reports, “Um maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares and a $510 price target.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Shh, shh, shh! You’re disrupting the AAPL sale, Maynard!

10 Comments

  1. This figure could be easily much overboard; 25 million is more realistic considering manufacturing possibilities.

    UBS plays “Bull” game, so the will make minor shareholders/investors buying the stock and then their “targets” and “estimates” will not be mean, their major clients will fix significant profits.

    1. 42 million iPhones would mean calendar Q4 like $48 billion, which is not realistic yet.

      Apple’s non-iPhone business was about $18 billion in calendar Q3. It will bigger 25% thanks to holiday Q4, equalling about $23 billion. 42 million iPhones would make $25 billion revenue. So you get 23 + 25 = $48 billion.

      1. Well Apple has guided for $37B and, allowing for the usual 12-18% low-balling trick, that gives us a potential upside value of around $44B. But what if it went to an upside of 29%?
        I believe that, this quarter, anything is possible.
        AAPL could do it considering the mix of 3GS, 4 and 4S. Truly, an iPhone for everyone.
        AAPL is truly cheap right now.

        1. If iPhone 3Gs non-contract, unsubsidised price will be indeed low — for now, I can not tell yet — then even 42 million iPhones will be possible. However, I dount that unsubsidised iPhone 3Gs price will drop that much; lets see.

    2. Could you clarify what you’re referring to with “manufacturing possibilities”? With every new iPhone generation Apple has found ways to boost shipment volumes immediately. Hence the staircase shape of the sales curve. This year we even have a situation where not only 1 out of 3 iPhone SKUs but 2 out of 4 SKUs or half the lineup are old models that are in ample supply. I don’t know if 40 million iPhones can be sold, but, at least from the manufacturing point of view, more than 30 million should be no problem.

  2. Why doesn’t that moron just say they will sell 1 million phones. So the new game is to wildly overestimate every qtr as opposed to wildly underestimating qtr. god forbid they go for accuracy!

  3. Crazy iPhone Unit sale and also EPS estimate. After result these same people will say Apple fails to deliver again. They must be trying to increase AAPL share price so they can offload it and buy back after quarterly announcement.

    SMART PLAY

  4. How about this… Lift the sales tax on all apple items for the 2011 Christmas season. When SC has no tax weekends for back to school the stores are mobbed. People will fight each other for a 4 to 7 percent discount. They go nuts if they think they are sticking it to the man. A store would get little response to a 4% sale but no tax? They line up the night before! Apple could cover the tax to each retailer.

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