“An OS, as a platform, usually has a finite life. It is born, grows and usually reaches a point where it is no longer supported,” Horace Dediu writes for Asymco. “Sometimes, a new platform is born to take its place from the original owner but more often a replacement comes from a new challenger company.”
“If we do think of platforms as finite, then the natural question is what causes an end? We need to look for patterns which may indicate when a platform is reaching end of life,” Dediu writes.
Much more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]
I like Mr. Dediu and his posts are often deceptively insightful, but is it a little bit too early to draw empirical wisdom from OS platforms that have been around only a few decades (as opposed to a century even)?
We have so little data and yet so much to learn.
Thank you for your response; it was a pleasant surprise.
From your post and charts, the obvious conclusion for me is that Windows as a platform is nearing its end (at least in its current form). It would appear that Mozilla Corporation may also have arrived at the same conclusion (spike of lengthy interval before a new release spells quick doom) as yours. That may have prompted them to switch gears to rapid release schedule with rapid version number increments, more in line with Chrome (I see them both as platforms as well).
The question would be, what or who decides the EOF for an OS platform? Is it defined by the abandonment of its developer/maintainer company or developer/maintainer groups/users?
Android, Symbian, Linux etc. are open sourced, and even if their mothers abandon them, user and OEMs may continue to keep them alive in a very realistic way.
Anyway, mine’s a speculative argument while yours a theory drawn from historical perspective. I say, there’s a good chance you’re right, and that would be no less credible than Moor’s Law.
The best telltale sign I can think of is a steep drop off in sales. When your platform isn’t selling, then it’s time to reinvent or die.
RIM, circling the toilet since 2007.
OS 9 is gone; we have to accept that.
Gone but not forgiven.
Ah OS 9, my one and only virus (according to whatever virus software I had.)
A fat slob salesman CEO is always a prime indictor of imminent demise.
*DING* *DING* *DING*
+5
Horace, My hat is off to you. You have an ability to find new metrics that amaze me. Always a pleasure to read your posts.
Another thing that strikes me from the article’s charts are the rapid death rate of mobile device operating systems. It’s clearly a volatile market. I can’t wait to see future data.