10 signs the U.S. double-dip recession has begun

Last week’s “news on GDP shows the double dip has arrived – an expansion of only 1.3% and consumer spending up .1% in the second quarter. Astonishingly low by any account.. The debt ceiling trouble and lack of a longer term resolution to the deficit will make it worse,” Douglas A. McIntyre writes for 24/7 Wall St.

“The US has entered a second recession. It may not be as bad as the first. Economists say that the Great Recession began in December 2007 and lasted until July 2009,” McIntyre writes. “That may be the way that the economy was seen through the eyes of experts, but many Americans do not believe that the 2008-2009 downturn ever ended. A Gallup poll released in April found that 29% of those queried thought the economy was in a ‘depression’ and 26% said that the original recession had persisted into 2011.”

McIntyre writes, “Perhaps the most powerful argument that the recession never ended or that a new one has begun is the persistence of unemployment. Fourteen million people are out of work. A third of those have been jobless for more than a year. May employment data showed the jobless rate rose unexpectedly and that the economy added only 58,000 jobs. Experts believe that the unemployment rate will not improve significantly until the monthly gain in jobs is consistently 300,000 jobs or more. And, at that rate the gains would have to go one for more than two years to bring the economy back to what is traditionally considered a reasonable unemployment figure.”

“There are several signs that a recession is firmly in place again and that the downturn could last for several quarters,” McIntyre writes. “Most are already easy for the average American to see.”

10 signs the U.S. double-dip recession has begun:
1. Inflation: The consumer’s ability to buy even the most basic clothing has been undermined
2. Investments have begun to yield less: The DJIA is up only 1% during the last three months and the S&P 500 is down slightly
3. The auto industry: May sales stalled. GM’s revenue dropped by 1% compared to May of 2010. Ford’s sales were down about as much
4. Oil prices: Recently, crude has moved back above $100
5. The federal budget: The deficit has caused a call for severe austerity measures which have already become part of the economics policies of countries from Greece to the UK to Japan. Job cuts in the U.S. will not be restricted to the federal level
6. China Economy Slows: US exports to China are key to the health of many American businesses
7. Unemployment: Unemployment creates two immediate problems. People without jobs drastically curtail their spending, which will ultimately affect GDP growth. The second is the need for tens of billions of dollars every year in government aid to keep the unemployed from becoming destitute.
8. Debt Ceiling: The United States debt ceiling,currently at $14.294 trillion, will probably be raised before the government has to cut back essential services on August 2
9. Access To Credit: The lack of access to credit has hurt the economic activity or both individuals and small businesses
10. Housing: Whatever the effects have been over the last three years, they are getting progressively worse as home values drop to decade lows

Much more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews readers too numerous to mention individually for the heads up.]

Related articles:
Apple’s sales in China zoom ahead of competitors – July 25, 2011
Apple sales set to grow exponentially as Chinese telcos look to offer iPhone – July 25, 2011

84 Comments

    1. The relation I can make between this article and Apple:

      Need money to buy Macs!

      Expendable income being eaten up due to higher fuel costs, higher priced groceries, heck, car insurance, cable bill, long distance phone bill, and electricity bills have all gone up a bit.

      I’d lover to replace my 2006 white 24″ Intel iMac with a NEW 27″ model, but alas, have to stay with what I got a little while longer.

      My brief observation, one of my business clients is a local but moderate size Real Estate company. Used to have close to 20 offices and a sales force of 500+ agents. Competition caused us to price our product/services lower to be competitive or lose the client, but fortunately, we were still able to keep the same commission rate. Unfortuantely, what used to be 35 – 40 requests a month has been cut in half to 15 to 20. And just this past month has been the worst I’ve experienced, yet, despite Biden touting the “Summer of Recovery” LAST Summer, and the economists saying the recession is over. Over?! Where?!! I don’t see it and I don’t feel it. Am I the only one?

      And this is not my usual Obama rant. He provides enough material for that in so many other areas. I don’t wish this country’s problems to be where they are, in which it affects me financially! That would be stupid of me to cut my nose to spite my face. There is enough blame for politicians of both parties. They involve themselves in areas they have no business (pardon the pun) literally being in. And when things go south, the politicians hold investigations and dragging everyone but their own worthless sorry ass to be grilled with questions. Reminds me of the guy who farts in a crowded elevator and then looks at the others with an accusatory glare!

      1. What planet do you live on? Corporate and top personal tax rates are 1/3 what they were in 1970. We have two Republican wars eating $100B per year, and an additional DoD budget of $1T per year. Yet somehow this is all blamed on Obama, not Bush II and Reagan.

        What are our wars and our trillion dollar defense spending accomplishing that we have to take money from our poorest citizens to sustain them? Where are the jobs and capital investments that were promised if only we would lower “job killing” taxes? Republicans have no answer for these questions, yet they expect the sheep to allow themselves to be herded along. Perhaps the Republicans shouldn’t be quite so confident of their position for 2012. People are beginning to wake up to the game.

        1. “we have to take money from our poorest citizens…”????

          Clearly you have no understanding of how the US tax system works. (To be fair, most liberals don’t.)

          50% of the country pays NO INCOME TAX at all, and of course that would include the “poorest citizens.” The top 10% of income earners pay 70% of the total taxes. And that’s just private citizens… not counting taxes paid by corporations.

          1. This is not about who or who are not paying taxes. This is about a seriously flawed worldwide economic model possibly teetering on the edge of collapse. Further, history and current events show us the greater the disparity between the haves/have nots, or the wealthy and poor, the greater the likelihood of revolution and upheaval.

            Over the past 20 years the wealthy in the world have been on a personal, and to some extent corrupt spending binge with little to show for it other than enormous personal gain and economic & environmental chaos. This has contributed to a much greater disparity between the rich and poor on economic and social levels, and a greater polarization of opinion.

            This article underscores the serious fundamental economic issues now affecting all countries in the world. These signs ought to be of grave concern to everyone, especially the wealthiest among us. No one is immune from these problems. And to point to one person, such as Obama or Bush II, as the cause of these problems shows a serious naiveté in matters of history and how these types of events can relentlessly repeat themselves until we get it right.

            1. You liberal shit heads are the problem. Shrink government to the bare minimum, lock down our borders from illegal entry, cut tax rates massively, get rid of entitlements for all but the truly needy and watch the economy take off and everyone benefit. You commies just want all the power and try to master plan who you want to be successful and powerful not the brightest and best as it should be. Go move to Russia or china or Cuba and leaf the IS alone!!! Aholes

            2. You liberal shit heads are the problem. Shrink government to the bare minimum, lock down our borders from illegal entry, cut tax rates massively, get rid of entitlements for all but the truly needy and watch the economy take off and everyone benefit. You commies just want all the power and try to master plan who you want to be successful and powerful not the brightest and best as it should be. Go move to Russia or china or Cuba and leave the US alone!!! Aholes

            3. The ideology you’re advocating– socialism– has been tried since 1900, and socialist governments have murdered 200 million of their own citizens in the time period.

              Socialism is what is destroying the US economy… and not surprisingly, the more it is destroyed, the more people suffer, the more socialists claim that capitalism is at fault.

              You’re right it isn’t just Obama and Bush, it is both parties, and the socialist policies they’ve been following, for most of the last 100 years.

            1. They don’t have to do that job if they don’t like the wage. There’s a thing called school or starting your own business, etc. Stop making everyone out to be victims. The government is making all of the hard working population targets.

      2. @Now, Now…
        I encourage you to keep your late 2006 iMac and use for Lion. I opened up my white iMac 3,1 and put in a replacement fast hard drive (a WD Black 7200 rpm 1 TB drive). I needed to replace the drive as the original was going VERY slow and the SMART parameters did not report anything wrong (huh, not surprising). With the new drive the performance gain was amazing. I didn’t realize the bottle neck for my machine was the slow drive. My iMac boots faster and finishes an AppleJack autorestart sequence a tad faster than my 2009 MBP 17. This is anecdotal, sure, but hang in there. There are quite a few good youtube videos on how to swap the hard drive for the white iMac — and the 24 inch has LOTS of room and is much easier to work inside than the smaller model. Sure, I want the new models. But fast 1 TB hard drives are inexpensive and you enjoy a few more happy years together, with Lion, too.

    1. Because with a bad economy people don’t have money to spare to buy a $650.00 iPhone thereby slowing down Apple’s bid to one day become The BORG and outsource their production to another planet.

      1. your a moron, no one pays $650 for an iPhone unless they buy it without a service plan. You can get one as low as $49. You so much smarter than all the millions of people who have bought one.

      1. once again… economy has been going down and Apple keeps going up…. Apparently the Apple economy is not in a recession while the rest of the country is. Last quarter results says quite a bit about how this article has no relevance to Apple. Maybe they should have titled this like every time a windows virus is out…. 10 signs the U.S. double-dip recession has begun, Apple unaffected

    1. #6, for one example and numbers 1-5 and 7-10 insofar as they could inhibit peoples’ ability to purchase Apple products and services.

      The people who complain about this article are simply moronic U.S. Libs trying to provide cover for their abject failure of a president.

      1. From the perspective of the far left, Obama is at fault for failing to provide enough stimulus, more bail outs, further extensions of unemployment benefits, and government run health care. Oh, and don’t forget tax increases.

        So, if you’re saying there should be no cover for a president that failed to provide these things, I guess that means you’re in favor of them?

        1. I assure you, my perspective is not of the far left. I have a brain.

          By providing cover, I mean complaining – against basic common sense – that this article has no relation to Apple in order to distract from the ongoing cause of the issues addressed: An empty suit elected by confused voters who were easily manipulated by a cheerleading media.

      2. Moronic U.S. Liberals who are trying to cover for the abject failure of a President that was in office in 2007? That’s right we are covering for the failure of Bush. The rescission started in December of 2007. Who was President at that time?

  1. Well the recession did in fact end if you follow the definition of recession and we will likely not know if another one isnjust beginning, but my guess is no. There have been many headwinds recently adding to the lack of confidence in the the consumer, but Japan and the spike in Oil really slowed things down in a hurry. Oil prices have abated a bit, and Japan is now getting back up to speed, so it looks like the third quarter may be slow, but the 4th will pick back up and progress will be made on the employment front.

    1. Maybe you should read some Austrian economic books and Adam Smith instead of the funny pages. We are in the greatest depression. Printing money has never solved a crisis. This this will be an inflationary depression.

        1. Nonsense. Inflation is an increase in the money supply. It is orthogonal to job growth or declines.

          The government, overspending at record levels, is printing money like crazy– this is what they are doing when they create debt.

          There’s no job growth because the economy itself is shrinking. The inflation rate is well above %10 per year (though people who are ignorant think that CPI is “inflation” and the government manipulates CPI to make it look like inflation is small)… since GDP is measured in increasingly lower valued dollars, when GDP growth is lower than the rate of money creation, you have a shrinking economy. e.g.: A depression.

    2. Makes you want to ‘bitch-slap’ some smarts into that moron Obama when he jokingly stood up on the stage during the campaign trail, pointed down and said, “Drill Here? Here?! Drill Right Here, RIght Now?

      Well, if there is oil there you shit head, then yes, drill there!

      Another, according to Mark Halprin, Obama acting like a dick moment! Hey dick head, take your Oil Price excuse and shove it up your worthless ass! I’m being as “Civil” as can be folks!… You wanted higher prices. Even said so. Scrub to 0.47 sec mark… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZU00pQDGkk Talked about how it would take 10 years to drill for oil during your campaign? Well you just lost three and you reduced local supply by shutting down the Gulf Oil Rigs. And of all the gall to blame oil prices??!!!

      See, as I said in my earlier post, when I rant about this POS, I don’t need to rail solely on the economy as the only issue at hand. Mr. Inept, Mr. 57 States, Mr. Corpse-Man, Mr. Memorial, gives us more than enough material to ridicule him and his Harvard Faculty Lounge Administration.

  2. MDN has said a number of times that it will occasionally post articles about things that are not necessarily Apple news, but still very relevant to Apple and just big headlines as well. This is kind of a big deal, and will effect Apple, so I understand why it was posted.

  3. As for McIntyre’s list:
    1) Inflation: Without jobs and wage growth, core inflation will remain low. If McIntyre can’t get the fundamentals of economics right, he’s going to be wrong on a lot of things.
    2) Investments: If only McIntyre didn’t hate Apple so much, he could have made money on Apple.
    5) Federal budget: Keynesian economics tells us that when public spending slows, gov’t spending should pick up. This is not the time for austerity or deficit reduction. You reduce the deficit in a boom period, not a bust period.
    6) China slows: Invest in Apple as Apple sales are just now taking off in China.
    7) Unemployment: Economics tells us that we need above 3% GDP growth for job creation. The gov’t needs to stimulate, not cut back.

    McIntyre may have made a couple good points, but he’s still an Apple hater and a hack.

    1. Too bad Keynesian economics don’t effing work. Wonderful theory. Most people like the idea of unicorns, too.

      Now, we do know for sure how Reagan revived America after the last Democratic clown nearly destroyed the country.

      So let’s get to work!

      November 6, 2012: Big party at my house!

      1. Too bad trickle down economics didn’t work, either, or the economy wouldn’t have tanked under Bush II, huh?

        You might want to scale back those party plans…

        1. Oh, no, this is going to be a major blowout. It’ll make my 2010 party (lasted 3-days) look like a funeral.

          “Americans’ political ideology at the midyear point of 2011 looks similar to 2009 and 2010, with 41% self-identifying as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 21% as liberal.”

          “Conservatism among independents increased fairly sharply in 2009, from 30% to 35%, largely explaining the expansion of conservatism nationally at that time, and it has held at that level since then.”

          Source: Gallup

          See also: Obama Approval Drops to New Low of 40%

          1. Like I said : Tea Party is history, toast , bye and good ridins!

            Compromise makes a return and it don’t need no stinking tea party…Read this and weep and while youre at it, throw a little temper tantrum teatard

      2. How Reagan revived America? You mean eight years of deficit spending and raising taxes seven times in eight years? For taxes, let Alan Simpson handle it:

        “But let’s just disengage ourselves from the myth that Ronald Reagan never raised taxes. He did. And here are four big ones. So I hope this will clear the air for some of the groups today.

        In 1982, the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act, that rolled back about a third of his ‘81 tax cuts, raised corporate tax rates, and to a lesser extent income tax rates. Raised taxes by almost 1 percent of GDP, which at that time was the largest percentage in peacetime increase ever.

        [The] 1982 gas tax increase. [The] 1983 Greenspan commission — we know so well; [fellow commission member Alice Rivlin] remembers — we all … raised payroll taxes for lower and middle income households to higher than they were before Reagan’s ‘81 tax cuts. Then there was the 1984 deficit reduction tax.

        Those are the big four. Then there was the Railroad Retirement Revenue Act, Consolidated Omnibus Budget of ‘85… ‘85…’87 Continuing Resolution, Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of ‘87, that was $8.6 billion

        So there were a lot of them. Just thought I’d throw that in.”

        1. Reagan, like many before and after him, may have raised taxes but let’s not forget he won the cold war with the greatest bluff in history. He raised those taxes to boost the economy out of the 21% Carter presidency and pay for a an imaginary Star Wars defense system that bankrupted the Soviets.
          This without actually going to war and killing Americans. Sounds like a pretty smart guy to me.

        1. Actually they have. Massive federal spending DESPITE massive debt (200%+ GDP) is exactly what grew the economy and pulled us out of the post WWII recession (and the first Republican Great Depression before that). Investments in education (GI Bill) and infrastructure (interstate highways, bridges, dams, etc.) provided decades of sustained prosperity. Damn socialist Eisenhower.

      3. Facts, please. Specifically how do Keynesian principles not apply here? KenC has much more credibility around here than you.

        I know how Reagan “revived” the country: he TRIPLED the national debt. EIGHTEEN debt ceiling increases. Spew all the talking points you want but you can’t rewrite history.

        1. Au contraire, the right wing nuts constantly and consistently rewrite history to pander to their “base” of mindless drones. Just read the postings in this thread for tons of evidence.

    2. I love it when people who don’t understand the meaning of words accuse others of not being able to get the fundamentals right.

      First off, don’t invoke the name “Keynes” because, while he was wrong, he was an honorable man, and what is being done in his name has nothing to do with his theories.

      Secondly, every dollar spent by the government comes out of the economy– either via taxes or inflation. When the government takes the money out of the economy, it damages its ability to grow, by leaving less money to be invested expansion or private spending.

      Thus, government spending directly damaged the economy. This is pretty obvious if you stop to think about it for a second.

      Of course, politicians,who see no reason to be responsible when spending other people’s money have spun this tall tale that spending “stimulates” the economy. This is utter bullshit. Just like racking up credit card debt doesn’t increase your paycheck, it just makes your paycheck be dedicated more and more to paying interest on your debt… same thing with government debt.

      What you seem to think is “economics” is nonsense political BS that has nothing to do with the actual science of economics.

      If you’d like to learn, I invite you to read “Economics in One Lesson” by Henry Hazlitt. It’s a relatively short book and very informative.

      The only way the government can stimulate the economy is to reduce spending, reduce taxes and reduce regulation. The government produces nothing, it can only do economic damage… it needs to reduce the damage its doing if it wants to help the economy.

      But the people you’re parroting don’t give a damn about helping the economy.

      The sad thing is, they’ve told you a bunch of lies, and you’d rather believe their self serving lies than use reason… otherwise the idea that spending stimulate the economy would be obvious in its falsehood.

    1. It has noting to do with Apple whatsoever. It’s merely MDN garnering hits to show their advertisers. Why else would Ghostery find 10 — count ’em, 10 — analytics sites with html bugs on this page alone?

  4. “Perhaps the most powerful argument that the recession never ended or that a new one has begun is the persistence of unemployment.”

    Unfortunately for me, I lost my job of 20 years last month. Now my wife and I are both out of work.
    If you know someone who’s been laid off, it’s a recession. If it happens to you, it’s a depression.

  5. Does Americans understand how huge amount of money they spend to military every year??

    According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute(SIPRI) 312 million people spended 698,1 billion dollars to it’s military while rest of the world* over 6,6 billion people spended 943 billion dollars to their military forces.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

    *People’s Republic of China, France, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, Australia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, Canada, Iraq, Israel, United Arab Emirates, Republic of China (Taiwan), Netherlands, Afghanistan, Poland, Greece, Singapore, Colombia, Iran, Egypt, Pakistan, Mexico, Norway, Algeria, Sweden, Thailand, Indonesia, Kuwait, Belgium, Denmark, Austria, Oman, Switzerland, Venezuela, Portugal, Angola, Chile, South Africa, Finland, Ukraine, Malaysia, Morocco, Argentina, Czech Republic, Vietnam, Syria, Romania, Peru, Sudan, Nigeria, Lebanon, Philippines, Azerbaijan, Jordan, New Zealand, Hungary, Ireland, Sri Lanka, Kazakhstan, Yemen, Bangladesh, Libya, Croatia, Slovakia, Serbia, Slovenia, Bahrain, Belarus, Bulgaria, Kenya, Cyprus, Tunisia, Uruguay, Eritrea, Georgia, Lithuania, Armenia, Nepal, Cameroon, Cte d’Ivoire, Botswana, Ethiopia, Estonia, Namibia, Brunei, Dominican Republic, Bolivia, Luxembourg, Uganda, Latvia, Zambia, Chad, Honduras, Turkmenistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tanzania, Senegal, Albania, Cambodia, Mali, Kyrgyzstan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Republic of Macedonia, Burkina Faso, CRepublic of the Congo, El Salvador, Ghana, Mauritania, Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique, Jamaica, Rwanda, Mongolia, Benin, Tajikistan, Swaziland, Togo, Uzbekistan, Malta, Fiji, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Burundi, Lesotho, Niger, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Central African Republic, Djibouti, Moldova, Laos, Guinea-Bissau, Belize, Mauritius, Iceland, Cape Verde, Guyana, Liberia, Seychelles and The Gambia.

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