Analyst: Apple iPad unit sales to be eclipsed by Android tablets in 3 years

“An unusually dissenting report from Nomura analysts Thursday estimated that the iPad would be eclipsed by its tablet rivals in three years,” Electronista reports.

“Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year versus everyone else’s 20 million, the researchers saw the lead narrowing substantially in 2012 and 2013, with the iPad finally losing an absolute majority in 2014 as 83 million non-Apple tablets trade hands to 78 million iPads,” Electronista reports. “The balance might be tipped by Microsoft. Although it would still remain the smallest category, Windows 8 tablets using ARM processors would swell from five million a year in its inaugural 2012 year to 20 million by 2014. ARM would also play an increasing role in traditional PCs at 23 million three years from now.”

Electronista reports, “Microsoft would be the ‘game changer’ that would break up the established order, Nomura said, although not until 2013. Android would be helped by this year’s Ice Cream Sandwich update.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Shit Sandwich is more like it.

And Analysts should factor in the potential results of legal actions that may actually be resolved within the time frames they provide.

Related articles:
Android phone settlers don’t go for Android tablets, they buy Apple iPads – July 8, 2011
Why Android tablets can’t compete with Apple’s revolutionary iPad – July 8, 2011
Nielsen: Apple iPhone drives U.S. smartphone growth as Android stagnates – June 30, 2011
IDC: Apple becomes Australia’s number one mobile brand as Nokia plummets – June 27, 2011
40% of European smartphone buyers plan to next buy an Apple iPhone – June 24, 2011
Apple iPhone the top-selling smartphone at both Verizon and AT&T – June 22, 2011
Analyst: Android to continue to lose smartphone share – June 20, 2011
Multiple Android tablet peddlers give up, focus on 4- to 5 -inch smartphones – June 17, 2011
Analyst: Apple iPhone 4 still bestseller ‘by far’ at AT&T and Verizon; still outsells Android in U.S. – June 13, 2011
Nielsen finds decline in Android’s U.S. smartphone share – May 31, 2011
NPD: Apple iPhone 4 for Verizon best-selling mobile phone in U.S.; causes Android to lose share for first time since Q209 – April 28, 2011

69 Comments

  1. What a load of rubbish… These so called analyst use simple calculation focusing on ration of shipped. It assumes APPLE will not innovate and everything remains as is.

    What a bunch of idiots. I actually have a friend who says the same trash about iphone. These idiots only measure qty and compete on price with each other.

    There will always be a low-end of the market and I am delighted that someone will serve their needs but please stop comparing your left over with a top notch innovative and users-loving-it magical iPad. My Little sister and my elderly parents love the iPad.

    They are idiots and so are those who pay these idiots to waste digital ink.

    Mehran

  2. The more likely scenario is that (by three years from now) Apple’s tablet competition will not be able to “afford” to compete with Apple directly. Apple keeps making record-breaking profit while the competition releases “me too” products that don’t make enough profit to justify their development cost and initial production run.

    They will focus on the “niche” areas that Apple intentionally ignores. For example, 5 to 7-inch mini tablets. Tablets with slide-out keyboards. Tablets that are too large/heavy to hold and use at the same time. Laptops with touch screens.

    And to speculate that “Microsoft would be the game changer” is (at best) premature. Wasn’t Windows Phone 7 supposed to be a “game changer” too, and what has it done? Windows 7 was supposed to turn the tide away from Mac, but Apple keeps breaking Mac sales records.

  3. I think the writer forgot to factor in the fact that Apple generally buys up the entire chip supply ahead of time. Where do the other companies get the additional chips from? Idiot! Electronista is just blowing text out of there ass!

  4. The Win 8 tablets will compete with net books, not iPad.

    The Android tablets will compete with each other, not iPad.

    iPad will have the usual problem, making enough hardware for the demand.

    Nomura analysts will quietly bury this prediction in less than a year.

  5. You guys are forgetting a major part of this analysis. If you put Apple in a vacuum with no further innovation and the rest of the players are able to innovate, they may catch up in 3 years. But, without Apple showing the way, the word innovate is used very loosely. Have we seen one single solitary innovation in the tablet market that was not led by Apple? I want to hedge my bet to 4 years….

  6. What school do these jackasses attend to get their “ANAL-YST” degree? Oh right, there isn’t one…just hang a shingle and you’re good to go. OK, I declare myself an analyst.

    Pay me money and I’ll make a prediction that favors you in a good light.

  7. Let’s throw some preliminary numbers in the hat. As of now the iPad will sell approximately 8-9 million tablets a quarter. That’s this year. That should account for the bulk of the 35 million number.

    For Android tablets to sell they will have to significantly undercut the price of the iPad to compensate for the lack of applications which currently sits in the ratio of 100:1, 100,000 iPad specific apps in the iTunes App Store vs. 1,000 (if that) tablet apps in the Android Market Place. For Android to sell in significant numbers the development cycle of apps will have to pick up steam in a big way. I don’t see that happening so that will act as a natural brake on Android tablet growth.

    The ramification of Android devices undercutting the price of the iPad is that profitability will be eroded. When that happens then the slide to cheaper components will take place so you’ll get shoddily made plastic encrusted crap appearing in greater numbers.

    And the last thing that the analyst did not consider is the distribution channel. Android phones have the carriers pushing them. Android tablets are stacked mile high in Best Buy but what’s lacking is a retail sales consultant who can show you how it works. This is where Apple’s strength lies – an unrivalled distribution network in the shape of the Apple retail store.

    Given these inherent weaknesses – comparative lack of distribution muscle, lack of apps, and inability to give much ground on price without fatally compromising the quality of the product – you get a trifecta of fail that will cripple widespread adoption of the Android tablet.

  8. I wish that these analyst were actually held accountable for their prophecies. Maybe then they wouldn’t spew this b/s all the time if they thought their jobs were on the line.

  9. 3 years from now Fandroid won’t be a free OS. After all the licensing fees it won’t hold the same attraction for the bottom feeders. HTC is already paying $5/unit to M$ just for their patent infringements with Fandroid. Add in Apple, Oracle and the rest and free starts to get expensive.

    Stealing is bad Karma. So sayeth the Book of Jobs.

  10. Yep, it’ll be just like the iPod all over again! Sure, it had a commanding lead at first, but then the inevitable rise of more open, flexible alternatives at better prices inevitably led to … the… iPod still being 70% of music player sales… um….

  11. Well. Who cares? Apple will have already moved onto the next big thing. A lot will happen in technology by 2014. Tablets may go the way of the netbook by that point.

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