Analyst: Apple iPad unit sales to be eclipsed by Android tablets in 3 years

“An unusually dissenting report from Nomura analysts Thursday estimated that the iPad would be eclipsed by its tablet rivals in three years,” Electronista reports.

“Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year versus everyone else’s 20 million, the researchers saw the lead narrowing substantially in 2012 and 2013, with the iPad finally losing an absolute majority in 2014 as 83 million non-Apple tablets trade hands to 78 million iPads,” Electronista reports. “The balance might be tipped by Microsoft. Although it would still remain the smallest category, Windows 8 tablets using ARM processors would swell from five million a year in its inaugural 2012 year to 20 million by 2014. ARM would also play an increasing role in traditional PCs at 23 million three years from now.”

Electronista reports, “Microsoft would be the ‘game changer’ that would break up the established order, Nomura said, although not until 2013. Android would be helped by this year’s Ice Cream Sandwich update.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Shit Sandwich is more like it.

And Analysts should factor in the potential results of legal actions that may actually be resolved within the time frames they provide.

Related articles:
Android phone settlers don’t go for Android tablets, they buy Apple iPads – July 8, 2011
Why Android tablets can’t compete with Apple’s revolutionary iPad – July 8, 2011
Nielsen: Apple iPhone drives U.S. smartphone growth as Android stagnates – June 30, 2011
IDC: Apple becomes Australia’s number one mobile brand as Nokia plummets – June 27, 2011
40% of European smartphone buyers plan to next buy an Apple iPhone – June 24, 2011
Apple iPhone the top-selling smartphone at both Verizon and AT&T – June 22, 2011
Analyst: Android to continue to lose smartphone share – June 20, 2011
Multiple Android tablet peddlers give up, focus on 4- to 5 -inch smartphones – June 17, 2011
Analyst: Apple iPhone 4 still bestseller ‘by far’ at AT&T and Verizon; still outsells Android in U.S. – June 13, 2011
Nielsen finds decline in Android’s U.S. smartphone share – May 31, 2011
NPD: Apple iPhone 4 for Verizon best-selling mobile phone in U.S.; causes Android to lose share for first time since Q209 – April 28, 2011


  1. “Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year”

    Wow! I wasn’t even aware Apple was still shipping the iPad. I thought it was all iPad 2 now.

    So, yes, Android tablets will eclipse iPad sales in a few years. By then, we’ll all be using iPad 5s.

    1. Yah Jean Brunet is spot on…
      I was going to buy an iPad till I realized Apple has not seen fit to include a centronics printer port.
      How are we supposed to plug our legacy parallel printers in to it?
      Ha- see I can outthink apples “supposedly genius” product designers, they need to add a centronics port and a floppy drive (and RS232 and 422 ports) , then you might be able to compete with the fully featured windows tablets that were shipping 5-10 years ago!

  2. Why are analysts in love with the idea that android will eventually take over? Recently there was a story of android phone owners having iPads. People don’t want tablets they want iPads!

    1. Because Apple doesn’t bribe analysts to write flattering articles about them.

      Wave enough money under Nomura’s nose and they’ll claim people will dump tablets for literal Etch-a-Sketches.

  3. I almost spewed my coffee when I read the title. I agree with MDN’s take- not a single competitor has gotten a viable alternative off the ground yet. I’m still not convinced Amazon is gonna do any better either, although it appears they might not fail as bad as the others…

  4. So amusing these analysts are. The numbers make it sound like they have any idea.

    But I do observe the day that Android will “inevitably” eclipse the iPad actually seems to be getting pushed farther back. I mean wasn’t it supposed to be this year or 2012?

  5. “Working on the basis that Apple will ship 35 million iPads this year versus everyone else’s 20 million…”
    Eh? I wasn’t aware of anybody else selling anywhere near 1million tablets, so where do the other 20 million come from?
    Based on that false premise, insanity is sure to follow.

    1. EXACTLY! This analysis is based upon this 20M to begin with in order to get to his 83M prediction in 2014. If the 20M turns out to be 5M, his prediction is going to off by alot.

    2. There are a flood of them in asia, this is from indonesia they are all android. You can see a whole different brands (or non branded) tablets in china, india and korea. there might be 100 brands of them. Imagine if each brand can sell 500.000, which is possible (because indonesia has 250 million population, china has billions of population and also India)

    3. When you see fatuous inflated hype like this:
      “…versus everyone else’s 20 million”
      You know there’s lots of laughter in store! 😆

    1. I think in five years, I will be five years older …..

      20 Million where the heck did that number come from …. So they are saying for every 3.5 iPad 2 sold 2.0 Android tablets are being sold today …. huh – I just saw the Zoom on Woot discounted $200 off retail …. Maybe they are counting the first time it sold, then returned, then sold to another company who is trying to sell it again – I get where they come up with the 20 million now …

      Kinda like a new car gets sold it is a used car and then sold again and again …. Hey we sold 12 zillion Yugo – Or was that one Yugo 12 million times ….

  6. And they’re throwing Windows 8 tablets in as the difference maker! Microsoft hasn’t sold 5 million tablets total in its lifetime, let alone 20 million.

    It’s really quite amazing how these analysts just pull numbers out of their *ss, never any justification to them at all.

    What in the world would make anyone think that Android tablets, based on products actually released to this point, pose any challenge whatsoever to the iPad?

    1. These analysts must not understand history. Just look how great Windows Phone 7 did. The iPad is even more entrenched than the iPhone, so I ask what school of reasoning do these idiots come from that they can conclude with any competency that a Windows tablet will be able to compete agains the iPad? I’ll chalk up Nomura’s lunacy to the Japanese nuclear disaster. Better lay off that radioactive sake.

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