“Friday was a terrible day for Research in Motion’s (RIMM) shareholders and employees,” Michael K. Dawson writes for Seeking Alpha. “The stock’s 21% pummeling was the culmination of a series of bad management decisions that date back to first time the word iPhone was uttered in January of 2007. RIMM’s management snickered at the [iPhone] announcement. After all, RIMM was king of the mobile hill. It had a legion of fanatical customers. Its market share was growing like weeds. All was good.”
“Four years later, management still believes it’s 6 months away from a viable response. In the mean time, I carved out a few bucks on the short side,” Dawson writes. “Not nearly as much as I should have, but I am ready to move on to the next casualty in the smartphone wars.”
“Google’s secret sauce is under attack. Android manufacturers love it, because it’s a much better OS than they could design and the price is right – $0. Google gives Android away hoping to make money from ads,” Dawson writes. “Well – free is not free anymore. HTC pays Microsoft a $5 fee for every Adroid device it sells as part of a patent settlement between the two companies. Microsoft has also filed a lawsuit against Motorola claiming their devices infringe on nine patents. Microsoft is also pursuing patent deals with other Android manufacturers including Acer and ASUS.”
Dawson writes, “Oracle (ORCL) is also getting into the mix. A filing from Google hinted that Oracle wants more in damages than Android has earned in its entire existence… Worse yet it’s entire mobile revenue/expense structure is upside down. Although Android is growing like wildfire, Google’s share of profits is not growing proportionally. It has effectively become the software R&D department for Android manufacturers in exchange for a hope that an end user will click on an ad… IMO, the amount of money that it has/will spend is not commensurate with its return.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: “Google’s going to rue the day they got greedy by deciding to try to work against Apple instead of with them.” – MacDailyNews Take, March 09, 2010
i don’t think $5 per phone, or even $10 per phone if Oracle gets in on the game is going to destroy Android.
No, not going to destroy Andriod. But enough to destroy MOT, SAM, Sony, etc. those high end Andriod OEM. That is enough and sweet to me. Copycat ought to die.
Google isn’t going anywhere. I had an iPhone, iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS and 4… I am switching over to Android next month… so have all my friends.
Based on the latest statistics which you failed to report, Apple went down 1% in market share and Google went up over 6% and that also included the help of Verizon for the iPhone or lack of. Let’s see what happens in 2015… shall we?
Why switch? Google phones run the gamut from giveaways to high end. Just curious us about your reason.
F off troll, dumping boatloads of devices on our shore does not equal real success. 20 manufacturers each dumping a shitty little pile of e-waste does NOT equal a lead.
“my friends” is a very finite and limited demographic to base anything off of. You and your friends probably all have the same interests, which is why they are your friends.
I see many, many different people, strangers, everyday… And every day I notice more and more Apple products; from iPhones to iPads to MacBook Airs, more so than any other single brand. In fact, I’ve never seen any other tablet other than iPads. So whatever “statistics” you are basing your opinion off of, it is not at all indicative of what’s happening in the real world.
Amen to that Michael, Marco knows as much as the rest of us about Androids future…..which isn’t much, maybe even less than that. The fact that he states let’s see what happens in 2015 is a bit of a laugh also……we heard the same thing when they were releasing VISTA……..FAIL.
Anyone reading an Apple related website should know – Marketshare means nothing if you aren’t making money from it, and you can be insanely profitable and not have a great marketshare.
Who cares if Android takes more marketshare if Google doesn’t profit from it? Even though Google has deep pockets, they won’t continuously throw resources at Android if their expected returns don’t begin to come to fruition.
People online constantly focus on marketshare numbers as if the business model is to see who can “win” that numbers game. Profit is always more important than marketshare for intelligent businesspeople. I’d rather have less devices in consumers’ hands that make me more money than have the majority of the market penetration but struggle to be profitable.
This is business, not a little league game. The only score that matters is the money.
Sorry but that’s not the idea here, with Android google in eliminating a layer between them and consumers. nowadays they have pay loads of money to include their google search options into the manufactores browsers, such safari. by having ppl with android, they basically have all control directly. it will make the google brand even more powerful.
sigh… thinking about that, is the only way I can think about use bing. still a painful thought…
I get what they are trying to do, but the Android click through rates have been very low… That means that they are not seeing much ad revenue on Android (since they are so dependent on the PPC model), which means that Android is going to also be expensive for them to get their search options out there to consumers.
Without a return, they will not continue to throw money at Android development indefinitely…
“Without a return, they will not continue to throw money at Android development indefinitely…”
Agreed. Ultimately, the shareholders will have the final say….just ask RIM.
irrelevant, they continue it forever.
this is just tentacles of the inc. its cost is irrelevant, since it’s spreading, and killing others OS already, soon the manufacturers will be so dependent of that, it will be irreversible. the brand will grow. search and ads will come.
they will get value for the brand, dismiss competitors. the end plot is good for them, this is not their only and vital business.
you got it.
Wow. I’m glad you’re not managing any companies I have investments in…
Err…except that Google cannot succeed in making most phone manufacturers install Google Search. Wait for the flood of ultra-cheap no-name phones running Android but not Google search.
Marco,
Hint.
Look at profitability. Not market share.
Then you’ll understand the impact of 2-for-1 phone deals.
Just curious, Marco. Which Android phone model are you switching to? If you think its comparable or better than 4, then good luck my friend. I’d take a 3GS over any Adroid.
Hey fsck off troll. You’re talking shit and you know it. I call bollocks that you’ve ever owned an iPhone. You’re probably too cheap to afford one.
@Marco,,
Market share ?? Ask Dell how that is working for them..!! 🙂
Used ALL of the iPhones,,,,, then went Android???? I say Troll Alert.
PS, if you are happy to wait 4 YEARS for something to happen, then I think you are just trolling along today.
Just a thought,
en
Marco, believe it or not your post only made me think you are one poorly informed individual. Android is now doing poorly on both Verizon and AT&T where the lion share of all smart phones sales are overwhelmingly iPhone for the last two months. Who is going to buy android when Sprint and T-Mobile get the iPhone this fall?
Apple isn’t sitting still and the improvements even to the existing iPhones are substantial with iOS 5. Instant Messaging plus is a strong reason to join the Apple camp along with the free Face Time. Access to the free iCloud is another killer benefit.
The only thing Android has for sure is a large stable of virus and trojan attacks each week that ensnare hapless users.
These are so well hidden it takes months to discover the damn Android device has been compromised, long after the damage has begun. You know that and still want to choose Android out of some perversity?
Apple users and their friends do not want to share your pain. You are bringing it on yourself.
I can’t believe anyone is replying seriously to this obvious troll. This is a classic troll post. “I’ve been a dedicated Democrat for 20 years, but I’m voting Republican in November and so are all my friends.” (Or switch the parties, same deal.) It’s obvious bullcrap when it’s about politics and it’s just as obvious here.
The only true thing in Marco’s post is that he’s a Fandroid. Everything else is a lie.
Learn to recognize obvious trolls. You’ll save time and your blood pressure will go down.
——RM
dont be evil my ass, weeee shall prevail!!
Sure Marco, and u live in Siberia?
Android is going to die a lousy death. Enterprise will never embrace it because it has 0 security.
Nice one. You’re not very old, are you? That’s the argument RIM fans were making in regard to iOS only a few years ago.
Android is a malware infested POS and will only get worst.
What rock have you been living under?
You’re right there — Android has been hit pretty hard with malware as of late. But I’m not the one living under the rock. Tell me, what OS does Enterprise rely on most on the desktop? Oh, yeah, it’s that Windows POS. Is it malware infested? Well OK then. So, back to your argument that enterprise will never embrace Android because it has “0 security”. Based on history, I’m not sure your argument holds water.
But, sometimes the true meaning of the history to which you refer isn’t so obvious. The history shows that Microsoft coasted for years on the inertia of its previous success because they had IT in their back pocket. That is changing; slowing, but surely. The government- and corporate enterprise numbers of the last year or two reflect that change: OS X installed base is growing rapidly, and it’s at Microsoft’s expense.
The current trend is obvious: OS X is slowly but surely eating Microsoft’s lunch. If Google doesn’t get control over its mobile OS security, it won’t see the growth that it has previously, either – most definitely not in the enterprise.
Marco, you forgot to add that your 5 wives love the Tegra 2 chipset.
Haha! Nice
I’id also like to point out that whether Android remains “king of the hill” or not, there isn’t a single company that benefits from that success. You can’t even argue that Google will, as a lot of Android’s recent growth comes from the Chinese market, where companies have stripped out all of Google’s services and put their own Chinese equivalents in its place.
OEMs will continue to use Android, until something else comes along or they create their own mobile OS.
Oh come on Apple Fan Boys. There are lots more of us out there other than Marco that have dumped our iPhones for Android — me included. In some regards it’s much better than iOS (choice of hardware, navigation, notification system, etc.). And in some areas it’s not as good — it does require more tinkering to get set up exactly how you want it. But arguments of last year just don’t hold up any more. The software selection and quality on Android is much improved — the iOS advantage on this front has nearly been erased in the last year. Android isn’t going away anytime soon — it’s a great platform, and seriously there is room in the world for at least two or three great mobile platforms.
Oh, and Michael — don’t assume that because some of us choose Android for our phones that we despise all other Apple products. I prefer and own Mac desktops and laptops. I don’t yet have a tablet, but if I was buying today there’s no doubt that I’d pick an iPad 2.
Just curious, Rick. How is your Android integration with Mac OS X? Have you found it simple to transfer music, contacts, calendar, etc. and back up everything securely? Or are you doing all of that with Google online stuff?
Oh, and come on Android Fan Boy, you should know that numbers do not tell all of the story – not even close. There are a lot of low-budget Android phones out there masquerading as smart phones. Not all that many models are comparable to the iPhone 4 or even the iPhone 3GS. And Android fragmentation is still a real issue, although it will likely tend to diminish over time as the early generations of Android devices are tossed in the heap.
Android is getting better. But the fact remains that it owes its very existence to the iPhone and iOS. Whether or not the orc can surpass its elf progenitor remains to be seen. But my bet is on the good guys.
Actually the integration with OSX has been great for contacts, calendars, and documents. I do use gmail, so integration with Android is exceptional. Music integration has not been all that great. I really despise iTunes, but after using Android for a while it definitely makes you appreciate the ease of syncing music with iTunes on iOS. I haven’t had time yet to set up the google music beta, but it should make music sync much easier. And application syncing on Android is awesome, no computer required.
all those features you listed will be shown to be rushed to market as usual when iOS5 comes online.
iOS5 wifi sync, and I bet no issues like the android OTA updates bricking devices.
iOS5 will have the iCloud, google’s cloud is still beta, will always be beta like gmail and all their chrome-ish apps.
you guys will only have app syncing…guess what all iOS5 devices will be synced the same from the cloud and your untagged music will be uploaded or found on iTunes without the need of a computer.
And you have not tried google music beta, i don’t blame ya. another google service with beta attached.
google should change their name to google-beta
@kingmel,
I use an Android phone and have absolutely no issue with OSX. Granted, my contacts and calendar are managed through gmail in the cloud. But they already were even before I got my first smartphone, so no issue there.
My music is managed in iTunes. I’ve used iTunes since the very first iPod came out, and until the last year or so I’ve bought all my music from the iTunes store. Now I buy 50/50 iTunes store or from Amazon depending on where I happen to have a gift card at the time.
All music I’ve bought DMR free for the last couple of years gets dragged straight to my phone’s music folder. My phone plugs into the USB and mounts as a removable drive. I simply drag all of the music, photos, or videos to my phone and drop them in the folder I want them in. Simple dimple mate.
Now, all of the hundreds of DRM’ed tracks I’ve bought from the early days…not so easy. I’ve been burning collections and re-importing them into iTunes and re-entering album artwork etc. as I want to move that music to my phone. It is a PITA, but it isn’t Android’s fault. Nor Apples for that matter. Just a remnant of the shitty early days of online music purchasing.
On fragmentation, I personally don’t care. I have a high end device with the latest software and intend to stay in that boat. All the apps come out for the latest device, it is all of the folks with low end or old devices that get hit with the fragmentation issues. As long as I’m on Android, I’ll get the latest and greatest each year. If I were on an iPhone, I’d do the same. That’s just how I am with my mobile devices. My MacPro though, I always try to milk at least 4 years.
Good for you, Rick. Some of us don’t want to spend time and learning resources to tinker with a phone. We have much better thing to do than mess around a phone. We rather pay and have it ready for serving us, not we serve it.
Yeah, I do like to tinker. I was a jailbreaker when I had an iPhone. In fact, I still prefer the way multitasking was implemented by the jailbreak community compared to how Apple implemented it with iOS 4. And by jailbreaking I could get quick access to toggle the radios on/of, etc. But for those of you who still think that Android requires lots of tinkering to make it functional, you’re just wrong. A year ago you probably did have to fiddle with Android to make it work, but it works very well out of the box today. Of course that doesn’t mean that I (and many others) don’t want to customize our phones to our own preferences.
@Rick
Hmmmm, true, a phone choice is very personal. And most of us agree. Choose what you want and be happy. BUT…..
“Oh come on Apple Fan Boys. There are lots more of us out there other than Marco that have dumped our iPhones for Android — me included. ”
Fan Boys???? and yet you use Macs and are considering an iPad???
See its the T O N E used in an email that gets the feedback. Say, iPhones are good but for me, I like the Android XXX. and people here (mostly) will respect that. Say that market share will kill Apple…. and die in flames. LOL
I have friends that like old Harleys… cause they love to tinker. Fine, I like to ride so I like my bike to be as trouble free as possible. Different strokes .
Just a thought,
en
Good point! But you gotta stir things up just a bit to make it interesting! 🙂 Actually iPhones are very good phones — that’s why I bought my wife and daughter iPhone 4s even at the same time I bought myself a dual-core android phone. I guess I’m just a tech enthusiast without much brand loyalty — I like nice things regardless of what company makes them. And Apple make a lot of nice things, which is why I follow them closely. But some people on this site are just a bit fanatical and don’t realize that other companies can and do make very nice products. Hence, it’s hard not to take an occasional jab.
By the way, I can’t wait for the new MacBook Airs to come out – gonna buy my daughter one for college next fall. With the combination of form factor, build quality, OSX, and the new processors, those are gonna be killer laptops for college students. My older son with his aging white macbook is going to be jealous (although it’s been a phenomenal laptop for college too).
The emperor has no clothes: no one clicks on Google ads.
Nooo! I desperately want RIM and Android to remain around, even to flourish to a certain extent.
Nothing else will replace that flush of smugness when I see them struggling to make their phone work, or watching them poke or swipe ineffectually as the hardware struggles to keep up with what they want a smartphone to do.
I want the iPhone and iOS to remain the ‘premium’ choice – everything else is just a weak imitation.
I think there’s room for Android, just like there’s room for a computer that barely works that you can tinker with for the sake of tinkering(a.k.a. Micro-Dells).
There’s always going to be a group that wants stuff to work out of the box and others that like to customize.
Then you’ve got subdivisions within those groups–iPhone users who (don’t laugh) USE IT AS A PHONE!!!! WHAT!?!?! never sync it, never download apps, and never back it up WTF?!?!?
Android will survive. I’ve been with Apple since 1984. Own ssd MacBook, iTouch, iPhone. When Altell switched to At&t. Went from Android to iPhone4. Apple needs to step up. Andriod better on Internet. Can zoom any size font and auto size to screen including MacDailey. Other features not enough space to write here. Android improving. Apple static. Ex. GoodReader superior to PAGES.
I hear you. Never used an Android myself–but have been tempted. But my thinking is, if I’m a die-hard apple computer user–does it even make sense for me to use anything other than an iPhone?
I mean the integration alone is hard to give up. Not to fly the red flag, but Apple gives us what we need exactly how we like it for the most part…eventually…sometimes…when they get around to it.
That’s good to a certain extent but it’s also good to have the Androids around just for the sake of an open alternative. Not to get political, but Android kinda like the U.S.A of Phone OSs.
Have I gone too far?? I shall prepare myself for the arrows now.
Hey, Marco who’s middle name is Rick likes to be Googles personal bitch and get his private data sucked out his ass…daily ….Yuuuck
Ooh, sounds like I touched a nerve!
stopped buying Goog around the time when they launched Android. Figured they couldn’t make money off it as opposed to Apple can with iOS.
I was right.
Google says it’s on track to make ONE billion a year (from Search, services etc) off all non PC platforms. Since Google search is iOS default I guess Google is making around $500 million a year from Android (?). Chichen feed. That’s before R&D, support (all those OEMs), marketing etc.
Apple makes around 10 billion a quarter off iPhone alone (before iPads, iAds, iTunes music, app store etc). Will make over 50 billion a year from mobile.
Worse for Google, when someone is looking at an ad on his Android tablet for example he’s not looking at an ad on his desktop. Sum gain zero. You have to offset mobile $ gains vs desktop losses.
Only time there’s mobile gains is when there is an EXTENSION of viewing time e.g when a mobile device is used on the move which is not possible with a static desktop etc. Even in that scenario the ad SPACE on mobile is smaller (fewer ads) than a desktop : so getting people on mobile is actually reducing googles ad space!
Add the Oracle etc lawsuits and Google is in a bag of hurt.
I wish Android around, so I can feel smarter and superior every time I see Android users.
“GoodReader is superior to PAGES” escribe Mack:
I use both. Anyone who thinks that the two applications are in any way competitive isn’t paying attention. They fit in completely different niches, both quite good for what they do on the platform. But still different.
Sorry, Let me Clarify GoodReader vs Pages or Spreadsheet vs Numbers. Apples puts too many layers to change fonts, too many Keyboards etc. Apple is becoming too clever. The other apps have menu’s at top and bottom similar to desktop Excel and Numbers. The point is Android have many developers who are working for simplicity. Apple using icons not list views, or how many way can they touch the screen. Ex: Files. a box for multiple icons rather than simple list views. Horizontal menus rather than pop up boxes. Phones are too small for “Command Center” icons.
Sorry, Let me Clarify GoodReader vs Pages or Spreadsheet vs Numbers. Apples puts too many layers to change fonts, too many Keyboards etc. Apple is becoming too clever. The other apps have menu’s at top and bottom similar to desktop Excel and Numbers. The point is Android have many developers who are working for simplicity. Apple using icons not list views, or how many ways can we touch the screen. Ex: Files, a box for multiple icons rather than simple list views. Apple, pop up boxes rather than Horizontal menus. Phones are too small for “Command Center” icons.
I don’t think Android is going anywhere either.
Its nice to think everyone *settles* for android, but I too switched from an iphone.
Granted some of the tech geek aspects of it were a big draw for me and they are likely not a draw for everyone. My non-tech family members seem to have no issue with running Android so my skills don’t appear to be blinding me to the reality.
I think it will be around a long time.
Heh. It seems like Android’s appeal is mostly at the fringes of the user technical-savvy range. The ultra high-end tinkerers who love to mess with their devices love it. The low-end users who pretty much just want a web browser and maybe Angry Birds are fine with it, because it can be easier to get than an iPhone and cheaper.
That leaves the whole middle to iOS, those who love to use their gadgets in exciting and productive ways without having to do manual tinkering in order to get them to work.
I think Apple is fine with that.
——RM
I think it has massive appeal at that end of the spectrum absolutely.
The thing with Android is that you don’t *need* to tinker with it, you just have the option.
My wife does absolutely zero tinkering. She just leaves the thing on all the time, surfs the web, does email, IM and has a bunch of apps she likes for various things. I have never had her hand me her phone and say “can you get this working?”… It just doesn’t happen.
Mine is a different story. Rooted and tweaked all the way. I’ve got it doing all sorts of interesting things. Even with all the tinkering I’ve done if I don’t make any changes to the configuration, it just runs.
Its not like Windows where just using it starts producing random “memory can not be ‘read'” error messages 😉
I think iOS and Android are both great operating systems. I do not want to see either one go away. Once one of them destroys the other we’ll see the innovation slow to a crawl. No thanks. Lets keep them both going strong.
Why such foul language you people act as if you have a personal stake in this matter.
I prefer iOS over Android, but I’m going into a tirade if someone has a difference of opinion. Buy what you like.
Here’s a simple one: got my wife a Droid2 3 months ago. While in the Verizon store, she loved the slide-out keyboard. She was happy with it for maybe a week, then the complaints began. Fast forward to last week, she couldn’t take the Droid anymore – slow start-up, unintuitive OS, difficult to use, difficult/non-working apps. So, I took her to AT&T to get a the $49 iPhone 3GS. She has yet to put it down and told me that “I was right” (very rare from a woman), in that she should have gotten the iPhone first.
I’m certain you will find similar stories from husbands and boyfriends alike.
Guess what: it’s the software! and it helps when the hardware is well designed for it.
I think a lot of people involved in this argument didn’t read the full article.
If Android goes away, it will have nothing to do with whether people like it or not. It will be because the appeal to the manufacturers goes away. As it stands now, Android is free (or very cheap, in the case of HTC). If lawsuits continue not to go Google’s way, and every manufacturer is forced to pay several licenses to use Android, there will be little incentive to continue making the devices.
——RM
I don’t think it will go away, at the heart of most of the licensing deals (think MS) is a direct threat to all Linux operating systems and open source in general. Most of the ‘patent’ claims (at least from the MS side) are the same claims they make about all variants of Linux.
There will only be so many licensing ‘fees’ demanded and you’ll see a lot more than Google and HTC in court.
Really at some point all these companies need to band together anyway and put MS in its place in regards to Linux. Might as well be Android as the catalyst if you ask me.
The only other possibly *viable* option I can see instead of Android for HTC and others would be HP licensing WebOS but I doubt HP would do that.
Marco is the new Mango! 😉