“Only three times in the past five years has [Bullish Cross’ Andy Zaky] recommended that his readers buy Apple shares,” Phillip Elmer-Dewitt reports for Fortune.
• July 2006 at $50-$54: 6-month $100 price target
• November 16, 2008 at $88.14: 24-month $230 price target
• August 11, 2010 at $250.19: 18-month $400 price target
“Two of those recommendations have paid off richly, and the third still has another eight months to do so,” P.E.D. reports. “On Friday, Zaky issued his fourth ‘buy’ on Apple:”
• June 17, 2011 at $320.00: 18-month $500 price target
“The market, however, doesn’t seem to give a damn,” P.E.D. reports. “Apple’s shares continued their post-WWDC downward spiral despite Zaky’s buy signal, dropping $4.90 (1.5%) Friday to close at $320.26, and falling another $9.76 (3.1%) in early trading Monday.”
P.E.D. reports, “Zaky is undaunted.”
Read more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Arline M.” for the heads up.]
I agree with Andy, obviously!
I made 3 buy recs to my family members, and I posted one buy rec here on MDN in the Opinion section, which sadly seems to be gone after the site redesign.
• Feb 2007, after Steve’s keynote intro-ing the iPhone, at $86.
• Oct 2008, after Steve got on the conference call for the first time ever to explain the Non-GAAP figures, at $96. That’s when I also wrote an Opinion piece here on MDN that is gone. Why?!? I thought it was very good, and completely predicted the rise from $96 to $300+.
• Mid-March 2011, when I realized that Apple was as cheap as it was back in Oct. 2008.
I now have 3000 shares and won’t even think of selling until it hits $450.
Riiiiiiight.
Smart investors are seeing this as a buying opportunity. We’ve seen these sort of dips before. Apple will blow away numbers again when they report next month and it will bounce. With their growth, and their cash, there’s no way this isn’t going to bounce back.
The markets selling off of Apple is totally ludicrous!!!!
No world events right now can explain this selling off of Apple stock. Apple has weathered the down turn with record quarterly profits. There is truly no explanation except that I believe the stock market computers have been sabotaged! Or someone in the markets are getting paid off to sell off Apple stock.
No world events?
You must not read the news past the sports page.
Yeah, you’re right and all, but if you are a long term AAPL investor, you have to get used to these times when the market sells Apple, and sells it hard, even while the company is wildly successful. Happened in ’05, in ’06, twice in ’08, all while AAPL was growing like mad. Since then the short sellers have only managed to stage minor raids, so we’re overdue. Again, this has nothing to do with the company and everything to do with traders.
I’ve been in this stock since all the numbskulls were saying it was going out of business, with a basis in the single digits. I’ve heard just about every argument to sell, but this company’s growth story is far from over. Relax.
Buying opportunity is now not next month. And every time they bounce back they only bounce back at the same price about 340 per share. Apple’s stock should be at 600 by now if it was any other company it probably would be past that even. This is very bad and shows that the people running the market are being manipulated somewhere else.
With your excellent recommendation, I may just short this stock down to $300. Why is this so-called wonderful stock so easy to short? It’s amazing the way analysts are luring their clients to the edge of the cliff and then just pushing them over like porcelain statues. It’s almost like the Pied Piper of Hamelin. Tell the suckers that Apple stock is going up hugely and then just short-sell the hell out of the stock to leave their clients in tears.
For seven months, the analysts have been telling clients that Apple is a must buy and every week the stock drops lower and lower. You’d pretty much think investors would be wise to this trick by now and wouldn’t go near Apple stock. But then along comes some grinning Apple bull telling the chumps that iPads and iPhones are flying off the shelves and more suckers get hooked. Next day, they short those gullible mofos until they cry uncle.
There’s only two sure things in this world. That’s death and shorting Apple. Who wears short-shorts? Apple wears short-shorts.
Wow, you don’t know when to stop.
In the last 7 months, Apple hit its all-time high. So, starting 7 months ago, Apple was $300, and it took 3 months to rise up to $365. It’s only the last 4 months where Apple has had a sideways and downward slide to $315.
I can’t believe you call yourself the “WiseInvestor”, more like the FoolishOne.
Funny how all those investors that were told to buy AAPL has caused it to go down. Do you even know how shorting works?
I’ve been telling everyone to get in when it went under $330. The punishment of AAPL ends with the Quarterly Earnings announcement at the end of July. The iPhone 4 and iPad 2 are flying off the shelves. AAPL is being punished for an imagined delay despite “off the charts” actual sales numbers.
Just like the punishment after the last record breaking quarter? My AAPL is hurting bad from all the great quarterly reports. I said a month ago on this forum that AAPL will drop to 300 where I have my stop order. Also where I will have lost over $100k in gains from early February. I expect it will go below $300 this week. Probably Thursday.
Revising my own estimation. $300 or lower not by Thursday but late today or early tomorrow. I still think it is Steve’s health, it will not recover until he returns. If he does not return my estimate is $250 or so.
Most of the suits in finance haven’t got an imaginative bone in their bodies. Most reason that they can never be accused of irresponsibility if they simply follow the herd. The common wisdom is now that Apple, having rocked the world with Mac, iPod, iPhone and iPad, simply cannot do it again. The odds are against Apple, especially with Steve Jobs reducing his oversight and control of the company. They have also bought into the idea that Android will consume iOS. These are their thoughts. It’s why they will play the trades, but they won’t “invest” long in Apple.
Yep, and they’d be wrong. Sounds like an arbitrage to me.
I disagree. Never argue with the market. Never take more than a 7 to 8% loss. The market is in a correction and AAPL is leading the way. This is NOT the time to buy. True, it may indeed come back but why take the risk? Why not buy at a less risky buy point? When growth stocks fail they usually do so, on average, 70-72% or more.
In the recent past AAPL has bucked the down trends, being the last to fall and first to go up. That is no longer the case.
Why now? I don’t know and neither do any of you. But we can all see that large investors (the ones that matter most) are heading for the exits. As long as prices action is going down on huge volume you know that large institutional investors are selling. Individual investors like us aren’t even a blip on the screen but they can’t buy and sell without affecting the volume and price action.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Apple products and the service I get from Apple. But it’s important to keep your admiration for a company separate from the company’s stock.
I encourage you to wait for AAPL to show signs of strength and provide a proper buy point or you might just be one of the “religious” buy and holders that take a beating unnecessarily.
Think of it this way, if the stock continues its slide and you buy now you could have your money tied up for quite some time waiting for the stock to recover. In that time you could have put your money to better use buying stronger stocks when the market turns around. You also run the risk of giving up and selling for a loss. If the stock does indeed start re-bounding you’ll have a “less risky” buy point that will be supported by strong volume. You’ll still make money and possibly sleep better too.
Just my (CANSLIM inspired) take on the subject.
The smarter thing to do would be to buy in using dollar cost averaging starting now. You say wait til it drops more then buy. Wow, who knew? The problem is, neither you nor anyone else can say what the bottom is.
DCA starting now then you’ll have both some safety and a faster gain when it comes back.
I don’t think I said wait until it drops more. I certainly didn’t mean to give that impression.
I did say wait for a proper buy point. No way to know when it it finished dropping but you CAN buy at a proper buy point which is always when a stock is showing strength not weakness. (For long plays.) There is a huge difference. I believe DCA is a bad idea if you’re buying a stock on the way down.
Yes, but if you are an investor, with a long-term time horizon, why try to time the market?
Excellent Question Mr. KenC.
The reason is because when great growth stocks like Apple roll over they quite often fall 70-72% or more from their highs. They most often have great fundamentals when this happens.
When a stock drops 50% it must gain 100% to break even. Even if it approaches that break even point you have huge numbers of previous buyers just wanting to get out of the stock. This is called overhead supply and it makes it that much harder for the stock to “break out” to new highs as those former buyers start selling and add to the overall selling pressure.
This is something that buy and holders often overlook because “conventional wisdom” dictates that you can’t “time the market.” Well, you may not know what the market will do long term but you can know what it is doing now. You can either trade with the trend or against it. This isn’t timing the market in terms of day trading but it is at least knowing when to get in and when to get out of the way. I’m suggesting that right now, these look like low prices (and very well could be) but we have no way of knowing.
But we do know the market direction and the overall direction of AAPL which is down.
If you buy and hold and happen to pick a stock at the right time, great. But that is very difficult to do. And to find out if you’re right you must be willing to sit through being in the red on a purchase. During that time while you’re waiting for the stock to turn around, your capital is tied up and unavailable for better uses.
Sometimes (often) a trends former leaders are the leaders of the next move up. Do you really want to buy and hold one of those?
I’m just suggesting there’s a another way that I find less risky that you may want to consider.
Kind regards.
Fair enough.
Wasn’t there a female analyst a while back that said AAPL would drop to $280? if I recall correctly, we all laughed.
i doubled the number of shares I own, buying more at $315 today.