First quarter PC forecast: Microsoft’s Windows down 2%, Apple’s Mac+iPad up 250%

“Charles Arthur of The Guardian writes that PC sales ‘have passed peak.’ That’s a powerful, concise statement,” Horace Dediu reports for asymco. “It’s backed up by a quote from Gartner’s Mikako Kitagawa: ‘This was the third consecutive quarter of mobile PC shipment declines in the US.'”

Dediu reports, “IDC even lays part of the blame to something called ‘media tablets’: ‘While it’s tempting to blame [PC] decline completely on the growth of media tablets we believe other factors […] played equally significant roles.'”

“But there are several problems with both IDC and Gartner’s analysis of the market. It’s hard to make out causality from their data. There is separation by vendor but not by operating system and there is exclusion of devices hired to do the same jobs as PCs,” Dediu reports. “For this reason, I need to do my own analysis. I retrieved Gartner’s public statements on the overall market and layered actual Mac and iPad units sold. I also added my estimates for the Q1 2011 quarter just ended to complete the picture.”

asymco: First quarter PC forecast: Windows down 2%, Mac+iPad up 250%

MacDailyNews Take: Yes, “revolutionary.”

Read more in the full article – highly recommended – here.

[Attribution: Fortune. Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “James W.” for the heads up.]

24 Comments

  1. well, overall share doesn’t change much. this chart is ridiculous. Apple & mac still shares under 5-6% worldwide. mac os x shares under 12% in US. windows 7 is over 32%. it’s only ipod, ipad product. it doesn’t mean the whole Apple products. the point is that I am care? NO.

    1. Seems like you “care” to me. 🙂 I mean, since you bother to post with all those stats…

      The “point” is that Apple is trending WAY up, even if you only count Macs and leave out iPads. The rest of the “PC” market is trending down. The Windows portion is mostly selling to existing Windows users (stagnant). The Mac (and iPad) portion is selling to existing Apple customers, but even MORE to Windows switchers. And there are plenty of Windows users left (as you noted yourself); that’s a VERY GOOD thing for Apple, not a bad thing.

      This trend is not going to change any time soon… Apple’s near term future is very bright.

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