First quarter PC forecast: Microsoft’s Windows down 2%, Apple’s Mac+iPad up 250%

“Charles Arthur of The Guardian writes that PC sales ‘have passed peak.’ That’s a powerful, concise statement,” Horace Dediu reports for asymco. “It’s backed up by a quote from Gartner’s Mikako Kitagawa: ‘This was the third consecutive quarter of mobile PC shipment declines in the US.'”

Dediu reports, “IDC even lays part of the blame to something called ‘media tablets’: ‘While it’s tempting to blame [PC] decline completely on the growth of media tablets we believe other factors […] played equally significant roles.'”

“But there are several problems with both IDC and Gartner’s analysis of the market. It’s hard to make out causality from their data. There is separation by vendor but not by operating system and there is exclusion of devices hired to do the same jobs as PCs,” Dediu reports. “For this reason, I need to do my own analysis. I retrieved Gartner’s public statements on the overall market and layered actual Mac and iPad units sold. I also added my estimates for the Q1 2011 quarter just ended to complete the picture.”

asymco: First quarter PC forecast: Windows down 2%, Mac+iPad up 250%

MacDailyNews Take: Yes, “revolutionary.”

Read more in the full article – highly recommended – here.

[Attribution: Fortune. Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “James W.” for the heads up.]


  1. well, overall share doesn’t change much. this chart is ridiculous. Apple & mac still shares under 5-6% worldwide. mac os x shares under 12% in US. windows 7 is over 32%. it’s only ipod, ipad product. it doesn’t mean the whole Apple products. the point is that I am care? NO.

    1. Seems like you “care” to me. 🙂 I mean, since you bother to post with all those stats…

      The “point” is that Apple is trending WAY up, even if you only count Macs and leave out iPads. The rest of the “PC” market is trending down. The Windows portion is mostly selling to existing Windows users (stagnant). The Mac (and iPad) portion is selling to existing Apple customers, but even MORE to Windows switchers. And there are plenty of Windows users left (as you noted yourself); that’s a VERY GOOD thing for Apple, not a bad thing.

      This trend is not going to change any time soon… Apple’s near term future is very bright.

    1. > Windows has much more. Doesn’t mean Windows is dead.

      Yes, that’s exactly what Apple wants. Current Windows users are Apple’s stockpile of future first-time customers, to be “mined” steadily every year with optimized profit versus unit sales. And that stockpile is still HUGE; it’s why Apple’s potential is still HUGE, even AFTER becoming the largest and most successful tech company in the world.

      That Windows portion of the market is like a precious resource, not to be wasted by trying to gain market share too quickly and lowering profit per unit sale. Going for market share numbers at all cost is the game everyone else plays.

    2. No PCs will not go away, but significant growth in the PC sector has stopped. Forever.
      Now here’s the BIG problem for PCs OEMs and MS. They don’t know how to make a post-PC device to save their lives.

  2. I feel kind of sorry for the haters. Every time Apple releases a new product that completely turns an industry upside down, they come out in droves talking about how it will ‘fail’. If everyone starts lumping in iPad sales in the PC catergory, the market share chart is going to change drastically over the next 2 years. But really, it’s about profits. Even leaving out iPad sales, the Mac business is booming.

  3. Thank you! It is like someone is reading these posts. I have been screaming that this isn’t about who took who’s share of PC boxes. It is about the OS net gains and losses.

    Again, thank you for having the eyes to see the real story. The Apple tsunami is here!

  4. hahaha you apple fanboys are truly crazy XDXDXD
    and to the fanboy just above me, if the apple tsunami doesnt take over the world by the time u enter ur grave, make sure u will be sad.

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