Deutsche Bank cuts traditional PC estimates citing Apple iPad ‘cannibalization’

“PC sales continue to grow, but at a slower pace than expected, according to Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore. In a note to investors on Tuesday, he cut his PC unit growth, excluding tablet sales, for 2011 to a 4 percent year over yearn increase, compared to his previous prediction of 9 percent,” Neil Hughes reports for AppleInsider.

“While PC sales saw a significant reduction in estimates, Whitmore boosted his 2011 tablet sales forecast to 45 million, up from 40 million. And he sees the lion’s share of those tablets — 35 million — being sold by Apple,” Hughes reports. “‘We remain skeptical whether the likes of HP, Dell, Motorola, Samsung and RIMM etc can close the competitive gap on iPad 2,’ he wrote. ‘Specifically, iPad challengers must either undercut on price (negative margin implications) and/or offer a superior user experience. In aggregate, we believe iPad will remain dominant with 70% market share. Our tablet unit estimate remains below Consensus due to our concerns that non-iPad tablets will underwhelm.'”

Hughes reports, “Tablet sales have apparently had the greatest impact on the consumer notebook market, which Whitmore said is being ‘usurped’ by Apple’s iPad. His checks overseas indicate that iPad ‘cannibalization’ of traditional PCs, or the percentage of buyers using the device as a notebook replacement, is north of 30 percent… Deutsche Bank has also increased its price target for AAPL stock to $450, and accordingly cut its price target for Dell to $18 and HP to $40.”

Read more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]


  1. Disruption – you can’t use a netbook standing up or walking around, so they aren’t really all that ultraportable since the advent of the iPad form factor. Suddenly netbooks don’t really do very well what everyone bought them for when compared to an iPad. The category has been thoroughly disrupted and iPads need to be counted as computers now that they are obviously replacing laptops for many people.

    1. The only catch with all iOS devices is that you need to have a computer to activate them and sync them. It’s OK by me since I have enough Macs around, but consumers that don’t have a computer are going to need one to complement their iOS devices. (My preference is to have iTunes to do all the heavy lifting). Other company’s devices don’t have that requirement because I think they can be activated another way. BlackBerrys are activated over a network, I think.

      To think of all those companies who lied and said that the iPad wasn’t affecting their sales at all. There sure are a lot of lies being told to shareholders who should know how their investment is being affected negatively by other products.

    1. Because Apple is too smart. They leave things off the iPad for a reason. Want Flash, keyboard, and a USB port with ultraportability? Get a MacBook Air. The likes of Motorola can cram their tablets with specs because they have nothing else to offer and no notebook to cannibalize.

      1. *DING*
        Thank you Johnny!

        If this BS ‘cannibalization’ concept were true, the computer warz all these decades have been about whose mother you’d rather eat, I mean munch, I mean ingest.

        What’s really going on is COMPETITION! That’s how capitalism works.

  2. It’s so funny whenever these “experts” use the word “cannibalization” incorrectly. It means to eat its own kind. Windows PC is the opposite of iPad, in terms of computing device. “Predation” would be a better word.

    iPad = Predator
    Windows PCs = a large herd of prey

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