Analyst: 7-inch iPad launching in Q1 2011, expects sales of 13m iPads in 2010, 45m next year

“In an Oct. 6 research note, Ticonderoga Securities analyst Brian White reports that Apple is developing a smaller version of its uber-popular iPad and suggests that sales numbers of the original iPad could reach 45 million in 2011,” Elizabeth Woyke reports for Forbes.

“White, who is New York-based but currently in China and Taiwan conducting research, did not identify his Asia-based contact, but noted that the person’s employer supplies components used in the iPad,” Woyke reports. “The contact, says White, shipped more than 6 million parts to Apple during the third quarter of the year and expects to ship 7 million more in the fourth quarter.”

“Since Apple uses one unit of this particular component in each iPad, that adds up to shipments of 13 million iPads in the second half of 2010,” Woyke reports. “For 2011, the contact believes Apple will sell as many as 45 million iPads, adds White.”

Woyke reports, “White’s report contained a few other surprises, including some details about the next iteration of the iPad. His source believes the gadget will debut in the first quarter of 2011… White’s contact says the second-generation iPad will be smaller, with a screen that measures about seven inches, compared to the first iPad’s 9.7-inch screen. The new iPad will also include the high-resolution “Retina” display that the latest version of the iPhone (4) boasts, a micro or mini USB port, a camera and greater capacity of up to 128 gigabytes.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If a 7-inch iPad is coming, we would expect it to be an addition to what would then become the iPad family, not a replacement for the 9.7-inch model which, of course, would be in line for upgrades. Think FaceTime capability, meaning at least one camera.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

50 Comments

  1. The current iPad screen size is, if anything, too small. If it were possible, a 17″ screen and pad weighing under 2 pounds would sell like hotcakes, since viewing movies on a screen larger than the 15″ MacBookPro would represent a vast market in addition to the market for the current iPad. I say this because I own both the current top end iPad and the 15″ MacBookPro but would dump the iPad for a larger one in a flash. On that note, no Flash is one disadvantage that needs to be overcome.

  2. The current iPad screen size is, if anything, too small. If it were possible, a 17″ screen and pad weighing under 2 pounds would sell like hotcakes, since viewing movies on a screen larger than the 15″ MacBookPro would represent a vast market in addition to the market for the current iPad. I say this because I own both the current top end iPad and the 15″ MacBookPro but would dump the iPad for a larger one in a flash. On that note, no Flash is one disadvantage that needs to be overcome.

  3. I love my iPad. I think it’s the perfect size. I think a seven inch screen would be a nice addition but it is definitely not going to replace the current screen size. I think that people who use the iPad to create content appreciate the larger size. Especially when it comes on to using the key board and graphics applications.

  4. I love my iPad. I think it’s the perfect size. I think a seven inch screen would be a nice addition but it is definitely not going to replace the current screen size. I think that people who use the iPad to create content appreciate the larger size. Especially when it comes on to using the key board and graphics applications.

  5. I love my iPad and use it every day. I think it could be a little bigger. Make the width and height match a regular piece of paper. 8 1/2″ x 11″. That way it fits nicely with a notepad or any other paper.

  6. I love my iPad and use it every day. I think it could be a little bigger. Make the width and height match a regular piece of paper. 8 1/2″ x 11″. That way it fits nicely with a notepad or any other paper.

  7. The current 9.7-inch iPad has a 1024×768 resolution screen at 132 PPI (pixels per inch). That’s actually a bit low for PPI. iPhone (before iPhone 4) has a screen resolution of 480×320 at 163 PPI. The iPhone 4 doubles the resolution and PPI with Retina Display, but that only makes things sharper looking; the GUI elements are still sized for the original iPhone screen.

    If iPad had a 7.8-inch screen and kept its current 1024×768 resolution, you get a PPI number that equals the PPI number of the original iPhone. So a 7 to 8 -inch screen on an iPad may be the more “natural” size for the iOS GUI. The current iPad screen size may have been a “first gen” compromise to allow the case to be large enough to hold the parts (including a 10-hour battery), keep the retail price under $500 at the low end, and allow sufficient cooling.

    I actually think iPad would be “more refined” if it was sightly smaller and lighter, IF you can keep the screen resolution at 1024×768 and maintain the other specs, such as battery life and overall performance. The smaller screen would have the benefit of making things look sharper while keeping the same pixel count.

    So here’s my speculation…

    For 2011, iPad with current screen plus a “special edition” model that has a 7 to 8 -inch screen at the same 1024×768 resolution.

    For 2012, the current iPad screen goes away. That iPad with 7 to 8 -inch screen (1024×768) takes over as the standard iPad, and a new “special edition” model with a 12 -inch screen is released. That model would use higher screen resolution; 1600×1200 at 12.2 inches is 164 PPI (about the same as original iPhone).

  8. The current 9.7-inch iPad has a 1024×768 resolution screen at 132 PPI (pixels per inch). That’s actually a bit low for PPI. iPhone (before iPhone 4) has a screen resolution of 480×320 at 163 PPI. The iPhone 4 doubles the resolution and PPI with Retina Display, but that only makes things sharper looking; the GUI elements are still sized for the original iPhone screen.

    If iPad had a 7.8-inch screen and kept its current 1024×768 resolution, you get a PPI number that equals the PPI number of the original iPhone. So a 7 to 8 -inch screen on an iPad may be the more “natural” size for the iOS GUI. The current iPad screen size may have been a “first gen” compromise to allow the case to be large enough to hold the parts (including a 10-hour battery), keep the retail price under $500 at the low end, and allow sufficient cooling.

    I actually think iPad would be “more refined” if it was sightly smaller and lighter, IF you can keep the screen resolution at 1024×768 and maintain the other specs, such as battery life and overall performance. The smaller screen would have the benefit of making things look sharper while keeping the same pixel count.

    So here’s my speculation…

    For 2011, iPad with current screen plus a “special edition” model that has a 7 to 8 -inch screen at the same 1024×768 resolution.

    For 2012, the current iPad screen goes away. That iPad with 7 to 8 -inch screen (1024×768) takes over as the standard iPad, and a new “special edition” model with a 12 -inch screen is released. That model would use higher screen resolution; 1600×1200 at 12.2 inches is 164 PPI (about the same as original iPhone).

  9. Apple patent, year 2020… Apple releases a new patent that allows for a touchscreen device that allows elastic resizing… this will put all the crybabies to rest so they can have the iPad that fits their desires perfectly!! You want, 7″, you got it… how about 11.25″… done…

  10. Apple patent, year 2020… Apple releases a new patent that allows for a touchscreen device that allows elastic resizing… this will put all the crybabies to rest so they can have the iPad that fits their desires perfectly!! You want, 7″, you got it… how about 11.25″… done…

  11. Stephen:

    You got it backwards! It is the MacBook Air that is losing the keyboard and the Mac OS in favour of iOS. I was expecting the iMac to be the first touch-only desktop iOS device, but MBA makes more sense. For sure, eventually, the entire Mac line will go mouse-less and keyboard-less (bluetooth keyboard optional), running Photoshop, Indesign, Illustrator, AfterEffects in desktop-grade iOS…

  12. Stephen:

    You got it backwards! It is the MacBook Air that is losing the keyboard and the Mac OS in favour of iOS. I was expecting the iMac to be the first touch-only desktop iOS device, but MBA makes more sense. For sure, eventually, the entire Mac line will go mouse-less and keyboard-less (bluetooth keyboard optional), running Photoshop, Indesign, Illustrator, AfterEffects in desktop-grade iOS…

  13. @hjmsstoll: The beauty of the iPad is its portability. Monday I was at the local Sweet Tomatoes (soup/salad restaurant for those unfamiliar) and saw a youngster with an iPad playing games in his seat while his parents finished their conversation. Would you really want a 17″ iPad in that situation? For one thing, it would be way too big for the kid to handle easily, so would be far more susceptible to damage.

    The current iPad is approximately the size of a standard hardback book, at least width and length. A 7 inch iPad would put it at about the size of a standard paperback. Easy to slip into a pocket or a purse or briefcase; no special case required. Put it at a competitive price point (say, starting at the same price as the Wi/Fi + 3G Kindle) and it would definitely be popular.

  14. @hjmsstoll: The beauty of the iPad is its portability. Monday I was at the local Sweet Tomatoes (soup/salad restaurant for those unfamiliar) and saw a youngster with an iPad playing games in his seat while his parents finished their conversation. Would you really want a 17″ iPad in that situation? For one thing, it would be way too big for the kid to handle easily, so would be far more susceptible to damage.

    The current iPad is approximately the size of a standard hardback book, at least width and length. A 7 inch iPad would put it at about the size of a standard paperback. Easy to slip into a pocket or a purse or briefcase; no special case required. Put it at a competitive price point (say, starting at the same price as the Wi/Fi + 3G Kindle) and it would definitely be popular.

  15. Sorry Analyst… but by your own quote the current 9.7 inch screen is ubber popular… why change the winning form factor to something untested???
    A smaller screen size would be an additional stream…

    The Gen 2 iPad will have a thinner form factor yes.

  16. Sorry Analyst… but by your own quote the current 9.7 inch screen is ubber popular… why change the winning form factor to something untested???
    A smaller screen size would be an additional stream…

    The Gen 2 iPad will have a thinner form factor yes.

  17. read another article that analyzed all the information that White provided and they say it’s all guestimation and bogus. I think their analysis is correct, for example they wrote:
    Our sources say, first Apple will not replace 9.7-inch model with 7-inch model, second generation iPad will come in two screen sizes. Second, Apple will not use micro or mini USB, as they will continue using dock connector, which has been adopted by many accessory makers. Third and last point, Retina display is not coming to the iPad. Even for a 7-inch screen, it very difficult to get 300 pixels per inch.
    Link to the article is:
    http://techztalk.com/techwebsite/10-06-10-smaller-7-inch-ipad-model-coming-in-q1-2011

  18. read another article that analyzed all the information that White provided and they say it’s all guestimation and bogus. I think their analysis is correct, for example they wrote:
    Our sources say, first Apple will not replace 9.7-inch model with 7-inch model, second generation iPad will come in two screen sizes. Second, Apple will not use micro or mini USB, as they will continue using dock connector, which has been adopted by many accessory makers. Third and last point, Retina display is not coming to the iPad. Even for a 7-inch screen, it very difficult to get 300 pixels per inch.
    Link to the article is:
    http://techztalk.com/techwebsite/10-06-10-smaller-7-inch-ipad-model-coming-in-q1-2011

  19. I’m with MDN on this one, I expect over next couple years to see various size new iPads both smaller and larger than the current one. Unlike laptops, and partly because of increased “cloud” over local file system orientation, I think people will see tablets as items you can and should (if you can afford to) own several of, using each for specific functions. I want a 6-7″ iPad, 1/4 as thick as current one, with 5 hour battery and retina display for reading/ video while commuting; the current size for general purpose use at home; AND a larger one for watching video w/ others, presentations, gaming, creating content, etc. I would probably accumulate all 3 and use interchangeably since each would access mostly streaming, my iTunes account, and my iDisk. Why sell each person one iPad when you can sell them each two or three!

  20. I’m with MDN on this one, I expect over next couple years to see various size new iPads both smaller and larger than the current one. Unlike laptops, and partly because of increased “cloud” over local file system orientation, I think people will see tablets as items you can and should (if you can afford to) own several of, using each for specific functions. I want a 6-7″ iPad, 1/4 as thick as current one, with 5 hour battery and retina display for reading/ video while commuting; the current size for general purpose use at home; AND a larger one for watching video w/ others, presentations, gaming, creating content, etc. I would probably accumulate all 3 and use interchangeably since each would access mostly streaming, my iTunes account, and my iDisk. Why sell each person one iPad when you can sell them each two or three!

  21. I agree that it might make sense to have more than one model eventually. If Apple does do it, they’ll go all in. As many bloggers have pointed out, the iPod touch has no competition. This is probably achieved because of Apple’s ability to make large orders (and thus undercut the prices of the competition), but is that all to the story?

  22. I agree that it might make sense to have more than one model eventually. If Apple does do it, they’ll go all in. As many bloggers have pointed out, the iPod touch has no competition. This is probably achieved because of Apple’s ability to make large orders (and thus undercut the prices of the competition), but is that all to the story?

  23. I dunno, I just can’t see how Apple can improve on the current iPad, for me it’s about as perfect a mobile computing device as it gets. I certainly wouldn’t want it any smaller, but it’s already plenty big enough to handle most any mobile computing situation. It just doesn’t make any sense to have a smaller iPad, the current version is already at an optimal size, ergonomically.

    In fact, it’s hard for me to imagine how Apple can improve on the iPad at all after the new iOS update comes out. About the only thing I still wish for is multi-tasking, and this will be covered soon. Otherwise the device is nothing less than phenomenal. What’s amazing is that Apple did this on the first try… it will be very, very hard for them to improve on it, at least in the short term.

  24. I dunno, I just can’t see how Apple can improve on the current iPad, for me it’s about as perfect a mobile computing device as it gets. I certainly wouldn’t want it any smaller, but it’s already plenty big enough to handle most any mobile computing situation. It just doesn’t make any sense to have a smaller iPad, the current version is already at an optimal size, ergonomically.

    In fact, it’s hard for me to imagine how Apple can improve on the iPad at all after the new iOS update comes out. About the only thing I still wish for is multi-tasking, and this will be covered soon. Otherwise the device is nothing less than phenomenal. What’s amazing is that Apple did this on the first try… it will be very, very hard for them to improve on it, at least in the short term.

  25. Like John Gruber said.. the problem with the 7 inch model is it effectively increases the pixel count by 1.5X which leads to jaggies.

    The beauty of the iPad size is that it’s 2X… clean doubling of AppStore App resolutions.

    I agree a 7inch and a 10inch(current) model makes sense, but the Resolution problem would advise against bringing a 7inch to market, becuase the screen would look ugly. Never mind the potentially screwed up controls (eg. shrinking the iPad Apps changes the way you hold the device vis a vis the controller, etc.

  26. Like John Gruber said.. the problem with the 7 inch model is it effectively increases the pixel count by 1.5X which leads to jaggies.

    The beauty of the iPad size is that it’s 2X… clean doubling of AppStore App resolutions.

    I agree a 7inch and a 10inch(current) model makes sense, but the Resolution problem would advise against bringing a 7inch to market, becuase the screen would look ugly. Never mind the potentially screwed up controls (eg. shrinking the iPad Apps changes the way you hold the device vis a vis the controller, etc.

  27. I’m not sure about a 7″ full iPad, but I could see a lighter smaller device to compete with the kindle for primarily reading only. Price it at $99 and I’ll buy one tomorrow. I love my iPad and even read on it alot, but for just light reading on the go, the iPad is a little bulky to take a long and a little heavy on the wrist. I’ve been considering getting an ereader like the kindle to take to work and such.

  28. I’m not sure about a 7″ full iPad, but I could see a lighter smaller device to compete with the kindle for primarily reading only. Price it at $99 and I’ll buy one tomorrow. I love my iPad and even read on it alot, but for just light reading on the go, the iPad is a little bulky to take a long and a little heavy on the wrist. I’ve been considering getting an ereader like the kindle to take to work and such.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.