Despite an ongoing industry debate about how to define tablets, Forrester believes they should be classified as a form of personal computer.
MacDailyNews Take: Obviously. Now, will the market share measurers finally begin to measure properly or will they opt to continue the ruse?
Tablet sales in the US will go from a modest 3.5 million units in 2010 to 20.4 million units in 2015, a 42 percent compound annual growth rate. Starting in 2012, tablets will outsell netbooks, and by 2014, more consumers will use tablets than use netbooks. In 2015, tablets will constitute 23 percent of PC unit sales.
MacDailyNews Take: Oh, puleeze, Apple alone will sell way more than 3.5 million iPads in 2010 and Forrester’s 2015 number is ludicrously, ridiculously, laughably, unbelievably low. So many just don’t get it! It continues to amaze us.
“Tablet growth will come at the expense of netbooks, which have a similar grab-and-go media consumption and Web browsing use case as tablets but don’t synchronize data across services like the iPad does,” said Forrester Research Analyst Sarah Rotman Epps. “Consumers didn’t ask for tablets. In fact, Forrester’s data shows that the top features consumers say they want in a PC are a complete mismatch with the features of the iPad. But Apple is successfully teaching consumers to want this new device.”
MacDailyNews Take: There’s no sense asking consumers what they want when they don’t know what they want. “If I had asked my customers what they wanted they would have said a faster horse.” – Henry Ford
While desktop sales will slide over the next five years, going from 18.7 million units sold in 2010 to 15.7 units in 2015, desktops will continue to play a relevant role in the market, buoyed by consumers’ desire for processing-heavy activities such as gaming and watching and editing HD and 3D video and graphics.
By 2015, Forrester forecasts the US PC market will break down as such (based on percentage of units sold in 2015): notebooks (42 percent), tablets (23 percent), desktops (18 percent), and netbooks (17 percent).
“Product strategists should align their offerings to capitalize on these market shifts, with chipsets, displays, accessories, software, and content that anticipate the growth of tablets and the continued relevance of traditional PCs,” said Epps.
Source: Forrester Research, Inc.
They should just replace the word tablet with iPad and then the article would make sense
“Despite an ongoing industry debate about how to define tablets, Forrester believes they should be classified as a form of personal computer.”
So, if the iPad is a “form of PC”, and the iPod touch and iPhone are just small iPads, then isn’t an iPod touch and iPhone a “form of PC”? So, shouldn’t Apple’s PC shipments be about 100M this year?
Well, maybe not. They need to factor that number by 10 and then it would make sense
I do not know where they dreamed up these numbers. But, lets play along. Apple’s iPad will have almost all of the “tablets (23 percent),” the Mac will be 1/3 to half of the “desktops (18 percent),” and why do they think that netbooks will be “17 percent”? Last year was the peak of netbook demand that fueled the PC box makers numbers. If you have a choice of iPad or netbook, the iPad will win 90 plus percent of the time. Look at the mp3 market and think bigger. Visit a college campus and see what is coming to work soon!
This is the RISE OF THE APPLE like a tsunami!
OK, make it a factor of 5. Those poor Foxcon workers are doing the best they can
Shoot I am betting iPad sales already approach total netbook sales…does anyone have any numbers?
Yes, Anonymous©. The iPad, iPhone and iPod touch are computers. Even Steve Ballmer called the iPad a computer.
I find it very funny that dedicated chips (a device) that runs your car is called a computer, but because the iPad, iPhone and iPod touch do not boot up with a Microsoft Windows logo, they can’t be a computer. Steve Jobs should let someone but Boot Camp on the iPad just to end this silly question.
iPad, iPhone and iPod touch all meet the definition of a computer.
Regardless of quibbles with the numbers, the overall picture painted by Forrester looks pretty accurate to me. I also agree that if PC market share for Microsoft gets to include embedded industrial apps, and POS dedicated devices, then all iOS hardware should be included as Apple PC market share.
What is a computer? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer
“A computer is a programmable machine that receives input, stores and manipulates data, and provides output in a useful format.”
The iPad, iPhone and iPod touch all meet the definition of a computer because they are computers!
3.5 Million in 2010? Can’t this guy read?? The older I get the more I find myself surrounded by nonsense. Now I understand why people in their 80’s are so grumpy!!
Not counting the iPad, iPhone and iPod touch as computers is like counting sheep and not including the black sheep because they are the wrong color. You still count a PC box that is connected to a scale, time clock, lab equipment, …
Go ahead, don’t count them. Apple is going to eat your market share with these non-computer computer devices.
My prediction for 2014:
Tablets 50 %
Desktops 25 %
Notebooks/Netbooks 25 %
That piece from Ford is the best thing I ever heard about the work of Steve Jobs. Thanks MDN, that was inspiring.
And to make this more clear:
Forrester thinks that iPads should be counted as PCs.
Gartner is not sure, but as of now does not count iPads as PCs.
I haven’t seen statement from IDC or GfK.
This is an ongoing debate between those research companies.
“desktop sales will slide over the next five years”
Overall desktop sales will decrease, but Apple’s desktop sales will just keep increasing as more and more people fall in love with iPads and iPhones. The halo effect will be incredible for iMacs, Mac Mini’s, etc.
The only companies that will be hurt by the migration away from desktops will be Microsoft, HP, Dell, etc.
I will have an iPad within the next year and a half. It will not replace my desktop, nor my wife’s desktop, nor our laptop. We won’t even consider it to be “a computer”, though it obviously is one. We will use it. Regularly. Maybe even more than our laptop.
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I don’t care if smartphones are counted as computers or simply as phones. They are both. Look at it this way, though … if you don’t count any of them – iPhone, touch, iPad – as “computers”, won’t Microsoft be surprised when their share plummets!
A Windows Tablet is a PC, an iPad isn’t.
Just ask Steve Ballmer.
How soon have we forgotten the old apple purpose the the desktop was our “dIGITAL” HUB.
MDN since you are the master of forecasting iPad demand and laugh all the time at everybody else I CHALLENGE YOU to present your calculations that backs up your estimates.
I’m sure you have data to back up your claims. Don’t you?
Release your data and stop laugh at everyone else!
The headline is wrong. It should read:
“Forrester: iPads to outsell netbooks by 2012”
There really isn’t a tablet market to be defined. The markets are as follows:
Desktop PCs
Laptop PCs
iPads
Smartphones
iPod touches