Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster:
• iPad sales, calendar 2010: to 6.2 million units from 4.3 million.
MacDailyNews Take: Bzzzt! Still too low, Gene.
Barclays Capital’s Ben Reitzes:
• iPad sales, June quarter: to 2.8 million units from 1.5 million
MacDailyNews Take: Also too low.
Kaufman Bros.’ Shaw Wu:
• iPad sales, calendar 2010: to 8 million from 6.3 million
MacDailyNews Take: Too low.
Broadpoint Amtech’s Dinesh Moorjani:
• iPad sales, calendar 2010: to 10 million from 6 million
MacDailyNews Take: Getting closer, but, Dinesh, unless Christmas is cancelled this year, you’ll need to revise upwards again, too.
Many more numbers in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: We’ve been saying that the analysts’ estimates are all too low since they began releasing estimates. Unless, due to some unforeseen event, Apple can’t make more than 10 million iPads this year, the analysts estimates listed above are all still too low.
Current run rate is 2.5 mm per month, that’s another 15 mm by year end
Ball park another 50% increase to the ramp for an 2010 target of 20 mm
my estimate (assuming iPads can be made fast enough) is 13 million this year
All way too low. 2 million so far plus the reported 2.5 million a month ramp-up going into effect this month equals almost 20 million by New Years Day. Can’t any of these analysts do third grade math?.
News headlines….iPad cures SFS & RIS and is now recommended by the medical profession. Sausage Finger Syndrome has long been a bain for many people as well as teenagers suffering from Repeatative Injury Syndrome texting from smartphones. iPad’s keyboard launches in landscape as soon as you tap on a field that requires text input, the buttons are full keyboard size and very very sensitive to touch so that no pressure is required for type to register. This means that it is now possible to maintain todays communication demands without a huge risk of developing an injury.
If Apple can make em, they’ll sell 20 million this year
At least…
Apple has 13 million iPad screens firmly contracted –all of those can be manufactured and sold this year.
However, I am not sure that in case of higher than that demand Apple will be able to actually ship more iPads due to manufacturing limitations.
However we have not taken into account a new iPod that will probably be showing up soon and might slightly cut into sales. And what if apple decides to beef up features and lower the price of the MacBook air?
It’s easy to criticize, MDN. Care to make an estimate?
Yes it would appear iPad sales may be constrained by one or two parts supply limitations. Let’s hope all the parts contractors can figure out how to keep up with Apple’s orders for more than they originally contracted for. If not, then the possible 20 million will be lower. I think it’s fair to say demand will exceed supply for the remainder of this year and beyond. Psychologically that’s a situation that will likely push demand up even higher than even any of us can imagine. It looks like it’s going to be like being inside one of those test planes with only 30 iPads for 200 passengers for sometime to come.
They are ANALyst, not BRAINlyst, so they don’t use their brain to to give estimates but their……
@ApplePi,
MacNN is pulling a Jeff Bezos on iPad estimates. Just take it for what it is–entertainment.
…I would rather have this kind of problem than not having one at all.
The only thing to hold back sales is production! I think the numbers will even surprise Apple.
@ApplePi –
I agree. As big an Apple fanboy as I am, the blatant naysaying without putting out a competing estimate by MDN is just childish.
Sack up and put out your own figure MDN. Then you can issue a retraction/revision at the end of 2010 like the rest of the analysts- or gloat when you hit it on the mark.
The ‘Asshat Collection’ of analysts urinates once again all over their legs, stupid dumb bunnies.
Apple will sell every iPad that they can get made. So, the only real question is, how many can Apple get made this year? Example: If the A4 chip is in the new iPhone 4G, iPad, iPod touch and new AppleTV, how many A4 can they get made?
Is not the selling it is the manufacturing people. Did you see Apple just gave the workers a raise at Foxconn! Every employee wants in on that production line. And Apple just paid for the best and more of the best!
On a slightly different note, I discovered Enderle gold. Apparently the reason Microsoft is doing so poorly is that Apple has secret agents working within Microsoft.
He is absolutely serious. It is hysterical reading the comments on his blog.
Why is everyone so focused on THIS YEAR… Apple will still be making and selling iPods, iPhones, iPads, Macs… next year too.
8 million iPads is cool for this year…. the world is poor right now and many are taking their time to buy new tech. Apple has years of sales ahead of it.
Just a thought,
en
ElderNorm, I agree with you. Everything will be OK.
@ FutureMedia
> 2 million so far plus the reported 2.5 million a month ramp-up going into effect this month
There will be a ramp up “toward” 2.5 million iPads produced per month (and even higher rates) and that ramp up may have already started, but I don’t think it will get to 2.5 million per month until around September. It took all the pre-release production time (however long that took before April) until about 60 days into start of sales to produce the first 2 million iPads (I’m assuming Apple has sold most of the iPads it has produced). How are they going to suddenly start making 2.5 million iPads per month? If Foxconn can increase production rate that suddenly, they would be doing it already and there would not be any shortages.
So my personal prediction remains 15 million iPads sold during 2010. 1 million per month average for the April-June quarter. 2 million per month average for the rest of the year. Total – 15 million.
Apple will basically sell as many iPads as they make, as fast as they can make them. Internally, Apple can very precisely estimate how many iPads will be sold in 2010. Someone send Steve Jobs an email asking how many they plan to make by the end of 2010, minus the last week. That’s how many iPads will be sold in 2010.
Don’t you folks follow the news?
Didn’t you see the stories over the weekend that Asus, Dell, HP, Acer, Kellogs, Procter & Gamble, Target, CompUSA, Ford, 24 Hour Fitness, Burger King and Exon are all going to be introducing their iPad “Killers” on the near future?
Don’t you realize that when this happens that iPad sales will drop to 137 units per month?
Pay attention please.
Steve just revealed they are selling 3 iPads per second which equals 18 million 144 thousand during the reemaining of the year pus the 2 million already declared equals OVER 20 million iPads will be made and sold by New Years Day.
The above number is for 1 sold per second. Steve says they sell 3 iPads a second. That would be over 54 Million plus 2 for a total of 56 Million sold this year. So we’re looking at some really strange projections ranging from 6 million to 56 million. I give up. This doesn’t make sense.
MDN,
This would make for a pretty graph.