Analysts hastily up iPad unit sales estimates

invisibleSHIELD case for iPadPhilip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune, “In the wake of Apple’s (AAPL) announcement Monday that it has sold its 2 millionth iPad, we have a flurry of new estimates.”

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster:
• iPad sales, calendar 2010: to 6.2 million units from 4.3 million.

MacDailyNews Take: Bzzzt! Still too low, Gene.

Barclays Capital’s Ben Reitzes:
• iPad sales, June quarter: to 2.8 million units from 1.5 million

MacDailyNews Take: Also too low.

Kaufman Bros.’ Shaw Wu:
• iPad sales, calendar 2010: to 8 million from 6.3 million

MacDailyNews Take: Too low.

Broadpoint Amtech’s Dinesh Moorjani:
• iPad sales, calendar 2010: to 10 million from 6 million

MacDailyNews Take: Getting closer, but, Dinesh, unless Christmas is cancelled this year, you’ll need to revise upwards again, too.

Many more numbers in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: We’ve been saying that the analysts’ estimates are all too low since they began releasing estimates. Unless, due to some unforeseen event, Apple can’t make more than 10 million iPads this year, the analysts estimates listed above are all still too low.

25 Comments

  1. All way too low. 2 million so far plus the reported 2.5 million a month ramp-up going into effect this month equals almost 20 million by New Years Day. Can’t any of these analysts do third grade math?.

  2. News headlines….iPad cures SFS & RIS and is now recommended by the medical profession. Sausage Finger Syndrome has long been a bain for many people as well as teenagers suffering from Repeatative Injury Syndrome texting from smartphones. iPad’s keyboard launches in landscape as soon as you tap on a field that requires text input, the buttons are full keyboard size and very very sensitive to touch so that no pressure is required for type to register. This means that it is now possible to maintain todays communication demands without a huge risk of developing an injury.

  3. Apple has 13 million iPad screens firmly contracted –all of those can be manufactured and sold this year.

    However, I am not sure that in case of higher than that demand Apple will be able to actually ship more iPads due to manufacturing limitations.

  4. However we have not taken into account a new iPod that will probably be showing up soon and might slightly cut into sales. And what if apple decides to beef up features and lower the price of the MacBook air?

  5. Yes it would appear iPad sales may be constrained by one or two parts supply limitations. Let’s hope all the parts contractors can figure out how to keep up with Apple’s orders for more than they originally contracted for. If not, then the possible 20 million will be lower. I think it’s fair to say demand will exceed supply for the remainder of this year and beyond. Psychologically that’s a situation that will likely push demand up even higher than even any of us can imagine. It looks like it’s going to be like being inside one of those test planes with only 30 iPads for 200 passengers for sometime to come.

  6. @ApplePi –

    I agree. As big an Apple fanboy as I am, the blatant naysaying without putting out a competing estimate by MDN is just childish.

    Sack up and put out your own figure MDN. Then you can issue a retraction/revision at the end of 2010 like the rest of the analysts- or gloat when you hit it on the mark.

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