Apple iPad pre-orders settle down after launch day frenzy

Apple Online Store“According to Daniel Tello, the Venezuelan blogger-analyst who has been tracking order numbers submitted by volunteers at Investor Village’s AAPL Sanity board, orders on Saturday and Sunday slowed [from an estimated 25,000 per hour] to an estimated 1,000 per hour,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

MacDailyNews Take: Simple logic dictates that initial pent-up demand would be higher than on subsequent days.

Elmer-DeWitt continues, “Tello, who is better known on the Web as Deagol (after a Hobbit in J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings), attributes roughly half of the estimated 120,000 first-day sales to ‘pure overexcited fanboism.’ The real demand for Apple’s tablet computer in the weeks before its April 3 release, he says, is probably closer to 30,000 per weekday and half that on weekends… ‘My best guess, although very tentative given the early stage and few data we have so far, would be that they hit the 1 million unit milestone by the second week after it ships,’ he told Fortune. ‘But this is a very speculative guesstimate based on just a weekend of pre-orders.'”

Elmer-DeWitt reports, “Tello’s estimates are based on 120 orders for 137 iPads over 39 hours, starting at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday… Tello’s bottom line estimate: 152,000 pre-orders over 72 hours. This does not include iPads reserved for pick-up.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Not enough data is known. The marketing has just begun; how will that affect pre-orders? Plus, this only includes on-line pre-orders, not iPads reserved for pickup in Apple Retail Stores.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Lynn W.” for the heads up.]

24 Comments

  1. Ordered mine on Friday, wife’s on Saturday [both WiFi/3G; hers 32gb, mine 64gb]; sent the data to these folks. I wil be surprised if it takes until the middle of April to hit 1,000,000 sales. There will be another PR boost at shipment, and in store visibility will drive these off the shelves.

    Now, if the MBP line could just get a refresh.

  2. Honestly.. how do they even know the number of pre-orders per hour anyway? I thought I saw an earlier article talking about looking at the order numbers over several hours and doing the math from there. But I’m pretty sure Apple order numbers include EVERYTHING that Apple sells and ships, not just iPads. Heck, when I had a replacement Mighty Mouse shipped out through Apple Care it had the same type of order number. The reasoning for these estimates seems a bit too simple for me.

  3. They know because Deagol already factored out the known average number if orders per day. His iPad estimate is after subtracting out the daily average.

    Also, each order includes whatever accessories a customer may have ordered (accessories are part of the same order number if you order from Apple online.)

    To account for the possibility some customers may have ordered 2 ipads, deagol multiplied each order by 1.1.

    Deagol has good analysis. His quarterly predictions always beat the pros consistently.

  4. In fact there’s a genius somewhere in the himalayas that says that this is pure guesswork and voodoo, because the real numbers will like always not be known till Apple spells them out . If they spell them out soon at all.

  5. All this is nothing but speculation. Everyone speculates their way to happy numbers, then speculates themselves to unhappy numbers, etc. driving the share prices up and down and round and round.

  6. I have ordered mine, not because I am fanboy (which I think I am) but because I want to give it to my wife as a present and I want to make sure it’s not sold out on the day of our anniversary (4/19)

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