“Russ Wilcox is chief executive of E-Ink, the company that makes the displays for the Kindle, Sony Reader, and Barnes & Noble Nook. That puts him squarely in Apple’s line of fire, given the e-reader aspirations of its long-awaited iPad,” Andy Greenberg reports for Forbes.
“But Wilcox is taking the first shot. He boldly—and perhaps a bit wishfully—predicts that e-reader devices using E-Ink will outsell the iPad this year. ‘E-readers will outsell iPads because of the simple economics of the consumer device market,’ Wilcox told Forbes in an interview,” Greenberg reports. “His reasoning? ‘It’s triple the weight and 30% thicker than an e-reader,’ says Wilcox. ‘You need two hands to hold it. It’s got a backlit screen, and it’s too expensive to give one to everyone in your house.'”
“The idea that single-purpose e-readers will outsell Apple’s newest wondergadget is a bit farfetched,” Greenberg reports. “Despite the deluge of new e-readers debuted at CES like the Que, the Skiff and countless others, Forrester Research predicts that only 6 million of the devices will sell in 2010.”
Greenberg reports, “By comparison, Apple revealed in its earnings earlier this week that it had sold 3.6 million Macbooks and 8.7 million iPhones in just the last three months. It’s safe to say that the iPad, unless it were a total flop, will sell at least 6 million units in the nine months after its March release.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: As Greenberg explains, Wilcox will be proven wrong. Throw another one into the iCal!
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Henry A.” for the heads up.]
I haven’t bought an actual paper book in nearly two years but I’ve read lots on my iPhone. I expect to do the same with newspapers and magazines on my new iPad. I also expect new magazines and other content to be developed for the iPad because the economics of paper is prohibitive for smaller audience publications. If I save half the cost of the paper-based products on iPad subscriptions that will be huge and I will actually subscribe to more than I do now. Fewer trees and more enjoyment. Thanks Apple
I’ll give the iPad this: It should revolutionize the comic books market.
That about cements the deal for me.
Same idiotic comments were made about the iPhone before release by competing-makers and look where that got them.
E-ink can’t do Magazines, children’s books, coloring-books, comics, catalogs and these are just off the top of my head.
I think where Apple “failed” is it’s presentation of iPad. Instead of showing NYT app, they should have demoed a Sports Illustrated app or something with a lot more interactive photos.
iCal away, MDN! We love it!
Que comes in 4GB ($650, WiFi only) and 8GB ($800, ATT 3G). Screen is 10.7 inches, 1/3″ thick, e-ink screen. Battery life longer, but no color or other apps.
Skiff comes in 4GB, only 3GB for document storage and SD card slot (price unknown), sold only through Sprint, has WiFi and 3G (no data plan). Fewer details, but e-ink screen.
The Que is DOA. Why in the world would you buy one for $650 when you can get an iPad for $499 with 4x the storage? Just for an ebook reader? Wow.
Game. Over.
Other than recycled iPhone FUD is what are the “experts” are offering us?
ereaders would have to come way down in their pricing to look more attractive against the ipad. Like really cheap
HAH! Talk about apples and oranges – he doesn’t DARE make the real comparison to a Kindle DX, of course…
I’ve been highlighting some of the things I’d like to see in iPad … but in my comment it’s a given that iPad will crush Kindle.
This sounds desperate, someone saying “everything’s going to be okay” when they know it isn’t.
Did Wilcox read about the issues with the Kindle’s E-Ink screen?
http://www.amazon.com/Kindle-Wireless-Reading-Display-Generation/product-reviews/B0015TG12Q/ref=cm_cr_pr_hist_1?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=0&filterBy=addOneStar
Logically speaking, why would an E-Reader outsell an iPad when an iPad *is* an E-Reader (along with the NUMEROUS other functions)?
Russ Wilcox is a moron… ♪
A Kindle DX with the same size screen is $489. No color, no apps, no email, no web, etc. etc. etc. For another 10 bucks, I’ll take the iPad.
How will we even know if the iPad outsells the e-ink readers? Amazon, for one, doesn’t release sales numbers. It’s all guesswork.
(Of course, not telling us how many you’ve sold is a pretty clear indication you’re not selling all that many.)
@iPhone User
“Apple… should have demoed a Sports Illustrated app or something with a lot more interactive photos.”
Peel Away swimsuits?
First of all how could the iPad outsell or crush Kindle when it doesn’t even have e-ink I don’t know many people who will be able to look at the iPad’s screen for hours reading an entire novel.
I’m not sure the goal is to dominate the market here, but I’m willing to be wrong. I think Apple and the iPad will sell well, and maybe for the first year it’ll come in second place (due to an end of second quarter release), but I don’t think anyone can be so bold as to declare that the Kindle will handily outsell the iPad.
In my more subdued moments I can completely see myself listening to music on an iPad and reading seattletimes.com—something that can’t be done on a Kindle.
Were it not basically dangerous to do so, I think more owners would be using the Kindle for kindling, once a more expensive—but more useful—ereader comes available in the form of the iPad.
eReaders will eventually be under $100. Or they will not survive. But technologically speaking, they are cheap to make and that price point is not unreasonable. e-ink is much less expensive than LCD screens.
Apple has totally shaken things up with the $499 price point. I, for one, expected $899 and believed that would be a huge mistake. At $499, the iPad (despite the name-snickering; really? What else do you call it?) might find a market after-all. But, $499 is still not a price you can easily buy one for each member of the family, and ebook readers really need to be personal.
We shall see – Apple did a lot of things right here though. I want one more than I thought I would.
FUD…FUD…FUD…FUD. These people need a day job!
the iPad has one real advantage and that it will have plenty of colorful porn. Has to be a porn lover’s dream machine.
I like our strategy. I like it a lot.
MDN: time for The MDN iCal Wall of Shame that with a special Anal- ist of the Quarter prize being a full page Feature, track record etc…
I’m sure they will sell more than the iPad during the 1st quarter.
“Of course, not telling us how many you’ve sold is a pretty clear indication you’re not selling all that many.”
I was thinking the same thing about AppleTV.
Funny how MDN always “iCals” things but you don’t hear anything afterwards. Maybe some of these predictions are too far from the mark.
A friend mentioned why buy a device that does only one thing when you can buy one that performs multiple functions.
“I like our strategy. I like it a lot.”
That was fun! I like it too.
I promise you, the Titanic is unsinkable! That little iceberg won’t even affect this great ship, no really….
“It’s safe to say that the iPad, unless it were a total flop, will sell at least 6 million units in the nine months after its March release”
BS. Not a safe bet at all. MacBooks and iPhones are need-to-have items. The iPad is not, nor is it capable of replacing the other two items. The iPad is more likely to under-sell MacBooks, just like the niche MacBook Air.
iCal! iCal! iCal!…
Anybody with any type of common sense realizes that single purpose devices are way yesterday. Hence- smartphones, and it took Apple to show everyone else what a smartphone really is. It’s the same with the iPad- this is what a truly portable media device is and it’s only at version 1.0
I waited for Apple to come out with a mobile phone and I bought one- and as I told as many people as possible who were buying these netbooks- I told them to wait and see what Apple comes up with. Apple didn’t disappoint.- It’s a perfect “in-between” device that looks like it’s actually better at doing some of the coffee shop stuff we do on our laptops. It’s certainly not a replacement; but a great compliment.
I would like to see a camera- I vChat with my daughter while she’s away at school- it would be nice but by no means a showstopper.
Enjoy everybody- and remember- it’s only v1
The iCal tolls for thee…
I have been leaving my Kindle home in my last 4 trips (I travel a lot overseas) because I can read my books in my iPhone. That’s where the iPad will shine…it will be much easier to read them in the iPad and still have my music and watch my movies on the same device. Priceless…
Is it just me, or does the ipad’s enormous black bezel around the screen look weird.
@Quad Core
Yes its just you.
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” /> It’s done that way purposely because Apple thinks these things out.
@Quad Core
The iPhone/iPod touch have a small bezel because you can wrap 1 hand around it to hold it. Now image the iPad with a similar small bezel; how would you hold it so that your thumb won’t overlap the screen?
Yeah, I thought so.
Yeah, this whole bezel thing needs a reality check. I have a feeling that once you actually hold one in your hand you’ll understand what that black border is for, especially considering that Jonathan Ive stressed repeatedly that there is no up or down, that it’s meant to be used in every orientation.
Wait for it.
eBooks may be easier on the eyes – or not – and eInk may be cool for that single purpose… but Apple will win this category. Kindle is so niche it won’t compete broadly… unless it frantically evolves.
After some initial dissapointment of what’s missing (which I stand by), I realize that the iPad will do what netbooks and ereaders do … but better … and it’ll do a lot more.
The price point and features have got many industry people scared today… an it’s worse for competitors (MS?) not scared… cuz it’s gonna be extra painful.
what else can the poor mutt say?
Terminally sad.
Later today E-Ink will be cutting the price and by week’s end they will be filling for bankruptcy — count on it!
If the eInk is too close in price to the iPad it will lose every time!
I`m still waiting for Ballmer`s “blessing”
Oh fucking please….
E-readers can do two things: read books very well and navigate the web horribly.
iPad can read books well enough (e-ink do have this one advantage), but it is also utterly amazing at browsing the web, viewing Photos, exploring your multimedia collection with music and gorgeous videos, not to mention iWork, all the iPhone apps we already have PLUS the next generation of super-pwning iPad-only apps.
Soooo, how many people like to read a lot to the point they want to buy an e-reader, and how many people like to do all of the other things iPad does AND get eBooks as a bonus?
E-Ink always was niche, but Apple will push it nearly to extinction.
“You need two hands to hold it.” I guess he didn’t see Steve Jobs holding it with one hand during the ENTIRE keynote.
I wonder if apple considered the ‘spanker’ market (Ballmer being the president since his always got his hand on it)…they require one hand to work and one hand to navigate. Therein lies the rub: holding the iPad…
the word “HOMO” applies
Delusional is right. iPad 3 will most likely be using hybrid LCD/e-ink technology. Then Kindle and Nook and all other e-readers go “bye bye”. iPad 3 will be using e-ink hybrid LCD technology.