“In fact, he has taken down his EPS targets so much that many of you have written to me asking if it’s true, that Munster went from $7.73 to $5.46. That’s dramatic when you consider that Apple earned $5.36 in its fiscal 2008,” Goldman reports. “And that’s led Munster to bring his target on Apple shares down to earth from $235 to $180.”
“‘We cut our estimates on iPhone, but it’s more of a shift. The expectations of having a March launch of a new form factor looks less likely.’ He spoke to a manufacturing source in Asia which says new components will be delivered to Apple in late March or early April which means a new phone might not come until June. Gene was expecting that new phone in March. So, ‘We pulled the plug on our 45 million unit sales estimate for (calendar) 2009. There’s just no way without that March release.’
“His new calendar 2009 estimate is 28 million iPhone units. In 2010, he ups the figure by around 15 percent to 32 million,” Goldman reports. “So that’s the reason for such a significant revision in EPS estimates. No big recession or depression. Just the reality that the iPhone refresh cycle slid further into 2009 than he originally anticipated.”
Read more in the full article here.
Gee, we thought just about everyone agreed that June was iPhone refresh time. Just like September brings new iPods. That Munster thought March instead of June for iPhone 3.0 is our only surprise. So, obviously, his estimates had to be adjusted not only based on that, but also because of the economic circumstances in which Apple must operate in 2009, especially in the U.S.
