“Has Apple (AAPL) hit rock bottom? Oppenheimer’s Yair Reiner thinks maybe it has. This morning, Reiner repeated his Outperform rating on the stock, though he cut his price target to $145 from a no longer realistic $213. He’s also trimmed estimates, and now sees FY Q4 at $1.11, down from $1.17, with ‘09 down to $5.64, from $6.29,” Eric Savitz reports for Barron’s
“That said, he makes a pretty strong case for the stock, noting that the shares now offer a 10% free cash flow yield, a strong brand in a sustainable industry and a strong balance sheet, with $23 billion in cash and no debt. ‘To put Apple’s current valuation in perspective, on a trailing cash flow basis, it’s trading in line with the historic trough multiples of HPQ and DELL,’ he writes. ‘You have to look back to the darkest days of 2001 – pre-iPod – to find Apple’s multiple this beleaguered,'” Savitz reports,
MacDailyNews Take: Uh, Reiner didn’t get the memo: Due to massive quota overfulfillment, “beleaguered” and “Apple” are never to appear in the same sentence ever again, regardless of context.
Savitz continues, “Reiner concedes that if the global economy ‘plunges into a hall of horrors’ – aren’t we already there? – then no one will be immune. But he says Apple should still keep growing and outperforming, given a secular shift to Macs from Windows, the iPhone’s “incursion” into the handset market and ‘a global Halo 2.0 effect that’s bringing iPhone users into the Mac fold.'”
Full article here.
Global Halo 2.0?
fsck that BS shit.
why does everything have to have a 2.0.
it’s still riding the OG halo. period.
Duh, has this guy heard the whole wall street economy is tanking? It’s all relative, all companies are losing value.
No way! This crisis is not one of liquidity but one of solvency. The fed and the government has been more than willing to pump in all the liquidity into the system to prop up the economy. Money in the system is not the problem. It is one of solvency. By pumping more money into the sytem to prop the inflated numbers they are creating a longer term issue. What should be done is to let the bad debts have the market take care of them which is what we see happening now as we speak. Since bad debts are worthless natural forces in the market will eliminate them and those who profited from them. Who wants to wager we have a new monetary system within a year? Hmmmm maybe cashless.
@opie
If we are lucky, we go to a system where iPods are the primary unit of currency in denominations of shuffle, nano, classic, and touch.
Then Apple really will be a mint.
I AGREE wholeheartedly.
I also believe something else is being played out and the American public (as well as other countries) are going to lose more ( alot more) individual freedoms.
The best way to force change on an unsuspecting public is to create a massive problem, then after enough time, propose the “solution” to the problem.
WATCH OUT FOLKS. THE WOOL IS ABOUT TO GET PULLED OVER YOUR EYES IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS!
@ople What about the last 8 years!
“given a secular shift to Macs from Windows”
Sheeesh. He is completely ignoring the all-important priest market.
Looks like Apple already see this crisis coming and that is why did not spend so much cash (the PA semi acquisition was a very small acquisition in terms of money / cash on hand).
Imagine what could happened to microsoft if yahoo had accepted the buy out? Microsoft could be on sale by now because they were about to accept a loan in order to buy Yahoo… too bat that did not happened.
I always knew Apple was just hype and nothing else, you better sell your stocks ASAP.
@opie,
BUT banks have to be willing to loan out the money to consumers and small businesses, and they aren’t.
@The Great Apple Fanboy Massacre,
Oh, man, I just can’t stop laughing! Thanks for your post! And, you know what? I bet most people here don’t even get the sarcasm in your post, because, I’m sure you’re not THAT dumb.
@ (@opie) What the heck are you talking about?
It sounds like you are one of those goons that is warning about the “coming Socialism” or some such rot, but you don’t give any information so it’s hard to tell if you are spinning a Fascist conspiracy or a Libertarian one.
In case you haven’t noticed, conspiracy theories like that require a “false” problem, as in the classic “false flag attack.” The current economic crisis is actually real.
Also, such conspiracy theories require the “solver” of the problem to be the same group that created the (false) problem. In this case the problem was created by free-market capitalism gone wild, and as of yet the only solutions to it are being proposed by the other side, i.e. those dreaded evil “Socialists.”
Since it’s very unlikely at this point that the free-market capitalist guys are going to win any elections for the next 8 years or so, it makes no sense to think that they are going to come up with some radical “solution” to their (false) problem.
Your analysis is idiotic and non-sensical.
“Has Apple (AAPL) finally hit rock bottom?”
Yes, but it still refuses to admit it has a problem or that it’s powerless over its addiction to cool gadgets. They’ll get no sympathy from the group until they do.
@ The Great Apple Fanboy Massacre
It’s Microsoft that is currently taking a huge crippling one to the shorts. All of these big financial institutions and companies that have the annual licensing and support deals that are paying MS on a monthly bases is hitting MS in it’s monthly reoccurring revenues.
In bankruptcy court MS is on the bottom of the totem pole to collect.
When MS starts reporting missed earns and mounting losses, the investors will flee from the sinking MS faster then rat from water.
Financially MS is a far more vulnerable position with it being a sorta creditor and it’s google envy spending and losses.
“BUT banks have to be willing to loan out the money to consumers and small businesses, and they aren’t.”
You’ve obviously been listening to the drive-by media way too much. I actually work for a bank. And guess what? If you have good credit, you can get a consumer loan or a small business loan here today. That’s the same as it was here yesterday, and it’ll still be the same tomorrow. Don’t buy into all the media created hype because it simply isn’t true.
Let us prey!
Savitz of Barron’s loves to post negative Apple news.
No Apple hasn’t hit rock bottom. Wait for Apple to release their notebooks on Oct 14. The stock will go down again for 2 days (no matter how good they are).
(with apologies to the great Ms Klein)
Sometimes in a down market people have to liquidate solid stocks to get cash for margin calls or sometimes sell out of blind panic. The same sometimes happens to large trading firms, which will sell off solid stocks in a downdraft to lock in gains before they are wiped out by the fearful sheeple.
Apple could be in for some blunting as most of what it makes is sold to the consumer market on a discretionary basis- you cannot eat an iPhone or MacBook, but you can usually get along with what you have. Apple will doubtless take some kind of hit- either a blunting of growth or even a slight decline. Fanbois in denial about the very real carnage from unrestricted Friedmanomics are getting a hard lesson in how much BS Uncle Milton was pumping- it’s payday today- not someday.
Hopefully, Apple will do as it did in the dark days of the 2000-2001 recession and continue R&D;even as competitors cut back. That will enable them to extend their lead on the competition.
No. There is no “rock bottom” as long as the $ is artificially held too high in its currency change value. First a $ solidified at a max of 20 Euro cents… then a new shares alignement. But many entreprises will desapear till then.
AAPL is in good shape with plenty of cash. And, their stores generate a ton of cash flow. This stock will hold its own through this debacle.
The Wall Street Journal is calling for Dodd and Frank and others from Congress to go before hearings to explain what happened. As O’Reilly told Frank on TV – He should resign. The Democrats are a disgrace and Obama spews his BS when he was a part of all this with his Acorn buddies.
“Jeremy” wrote:
“… the problem was created by free-market capitalism gone wild …”
Ohhhhhh, riiiiiight. I LOVE it! Waaaaahhhhhh, this is all the fault of “free-amrket capitalism” gone wild! Waaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!
Give me a break, you fool. This has very little to do with the functioning of the free market and EVERYTHING to do with … are you ready? … TOO MUCH GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT in the markets in the first place!
Whenever government inserts its tentacles into the market system it F-CKS IT UP! That’s exactly what it did here! The day the execrable “Community Reinvestment Act” was dusted off and put back into play was the day the writing was on the wall. Hell, even Bill Clinton, no less, has the good sense to recognize reality lo these many years later.
And when Fannie and Freddie first became “quasi-government agencies” we all should’ve seen the warning signs. Those 122 world-class economists and other free-market advocates like Stossel and the libertarians are RIGHT — the Democrat policies of GIVING OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY AWAY to those who haven’t earned it is the problem.
Obama promises more of the same. Frank, Dodd, Reid, Pelosi … get rid of them ALL! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Time: 3:12 pm Friday October 10th, aka the last day of ‘Crash Week’.
And what is going on with Apple stock? Up $4.46 for the day at $93.20 and fluctuating.
And the rest of the stock market? DOWN. At the moment the Dow Jones is down another $526 for the day, heading below $8000. And so begins the Bush Depression.
Apple again asserts itself as a safe haven for investors. Perhaps the fact that they won a pile of prizes at the T3 technology magazine’s annual awards in Britain inspired some traders.
AAPL will hit $60 on October 22nd because Wall Street (though they were already warned beforehand) won’t like the guidance. There will be some good value in Jan 2011 $100 Call options; nice two year cushion for things to hopefully get back on track. Again, my advice and $2 only gets you a ride on a bus in Canada, where thankfully, our banks are properly capitalized, our homes are still worth what they’re worth, and when we couldn’t care less about our leaders, we give them a minority government
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@The Great Apple Fanboy Massacre
Well since you posted, actually, the trend is going up, it’s up almost $7.00 since your foolish post.
@Opie,
The new currency will be Head Cheese!!!
(props to SNL)
…or the chineese Yuan!…
“Sheeesh. He is completely ignoring the all-important priest market.”
Holy crap, Cubert………
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“the all-important priest market”
What the frock? Priests understand the value of a good ‘vestment unless they’re in an altared state. Rite?
“AAPL is in good shape with plenty of cash. And, their stores generate a ton of cash flow.”
Lets just see how well that cash register has been ringing over the last month or so.
“Apple again asserts itself as a safe haven for investors”
bwahhhahahhahha.
Even a dead cat bounces if you throw it from high enough.
Get Real, I wish you would. I can’t believe you dragged out the CRA bullshit. Deregulation has caused this mess, and you know it. Grandpa McCain and the retardicons have screwed us over real good. You should be thankful the Democrats are patriotic enough to be willing to clean up the mess.
Nearly all stocks, including Apple, have been over inflated due to margin buying, expecting ever higher prices. Shades of the 1920s. Leave it to the Republicans to bring that nightmare back.
De-regulation caused this mess? Yer right… you should be calling Frank, Dodd, Maxine Waters, et al, and screaming your head off that they did not respond to the seventeen calls by the GOP to get a handle on Fannie and Freddie.
Dems like you are in this for one thing… expanding their power and socializing our economy. And congrats- you have your socialist crap getting hammered through, with Bush’s lame-duck stamp of approval to boot. Do you not admit or know that Pelosi and crew have had since 06 to get a handle on this, and have ignored GOP calls for more oversight on the mortgage market?
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/09/bush-called-for-reform-of-fannie-mae.html
Democrats!?!? Patriotic?!??
Wow … it’s a good thing I was sitting down for that one. neoflunky, you are as deluded as a typical socialist bedwetter could possibly be. Please step aside and let capitalism work.
AAPL will be back because their fundamentals are so strong. But stick Obama and the Dems’ big government policies where the sun don’t shine.
Off Topic.
Get Real = generic troll. Yawn.
“Democrats!?!? Patriotic?!??” -> Of course they are. I am so tired of the propaganda suckers. Been soaking up the rubbish from the Neo-Con-Jobs I see. Thank you for 8 years of hell in America caused by your ignorant voting.
“AAPL will be back because their fundamentals are so strong.”
Obviously.
“But stick Obama and the Dems’ big government policies where the sun don’t shine.”
Then apparently we’re totally f*cked as the alternative choice for President is even worse. I have never seen anyone as desperate to fool voters into voting for them as the McLame/Appalin ticket. Obama pals around with domestic terrorists then lies about it. Yeah right. The gullibility of humans never ceases to reward my cynicism.
How about this: We toss both the Democraps and the Republicraps into the inferno. Start from scratch with representative parties as opposed to the old boy (and girl) system we have now were loyalty to one’s gang holds sway as opposed to loyalty to the citizens. Career politicians are outlawed.
And before you attempt to defend the Bush League: Why are the feds currently going 180º contrary to deregulation and small government by throwing $Billions at the current massive failure of our capitalist system? I say: let it fail and fall on its face as it deserves to do. And in the future, stop the feds from sticking props under our economy to hide the fact that it is in decline. The entire federal attitude toward our economy has been to scam US citizens and suck up to Our Corporate Overlords. I call it Neo-Feudalism and we’re the serfs.
Remember over the years how so many criticized Apple for stuffing money under the mattress ?
Seems it went something like:
No Company in this Modern Economy should pile up cash like that.
Apple needs to buy something.
Spend that capital to increase profits.
Getting only Savings Account Interest is hurting Apple.
etc etc etc
That extra $20+ Billion for a rainy day ?
Looking real smart now – might be a Hurricane coming.
Think Different™
BC
“No Company in this Modern Economy should pile up cash like that.”
It’s not Cash. it’s Short Term Investments.
“Getting only Savings Account Interest is hurting Apple.”
It’s not in a savings account. It’s in financial markets.
You think your portfolio looks sick? Think about how a 20 billion one primarily invested in frozen credit markets looks today.
To Not Cash (are you ‘Fear and Greed’ in another post?)
You speak with Great Authority like you could be someone who had intimate understanding and faith in the Market – A Player. And now you’re possibly going through some kind of religious conversion ?
Sorry for your potential loss.
You can parse the precise meaning of the words I’ve used, but the concept and philosophy behind them is the point. And that point is valid.
Apple, and Steve Jobs, did not bite into the ‘Financial Apple’ dangling before the masses these last number of years.
Be it short term investments, or interest accumulating at the rate of a Grandmother’s savings account – Apple squirreled it away. And “it” does have value, the “liquid/cash” kind, still today, and that “value” will only increase going into the precarious future we may face.
Apple – right down to the tradition of its very conservative financial guidance – has always been a very unique Company, and that should now be greatly amplified when compared to all the other Companies and Institutions who refused to Think Different™
Thank You
BC Kelly
Tallahassee Fla
Or try it this way:
Apple – aka Steve Jobs – is not out to merely “make a profit”
Do Good Business – profit will follow
Apple and Steve are after something greater than money:
Change the World™
“Economics is just weather forecasting with money”
Nathan Urbaniak
Nathan is a college kid I know who says he made that up all on his own.
Since I can’t find anyone else selling it – guess I’ll buy it from him.
All I know about Economics is this:
Are +’s and -‘s
At End of The Day
Better have more +’s than -‘s
For years Apple has been “saving” +’s
Real +’s
Not “weather forecasted” +’s
Someone who appear$ to understand these matter$
And explains them in a way that is $imple and Elegant™
George $oros
Video of his visit last night with Bill Moyers
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10102008/watch.html
“”Economics is just weather forecasting with money”
And if you’re Soros, it’s always raining. Every day for the last 2 decades. One day he had to be right.
“Has Apple (AAPL) hit rock bottom?”
No, not yet.