AmTech’s Wu warns: Don’t get too excited about Apple’s September 9th event

“American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu put out a call to clients on Friday, saying they should be prepared for a slight letdown at Apple’s event next Tuesday unless chief executive Steve Jobs pulls a rabbit from his black turtleneck,” Sam Oliver reports for AppleInsider.

“‘While there is always room for surprise, it seems this event may be somewhat underwhelming versus previous expectations and events,’ he wrote. ‘Over the past several days, Apple shares have pulled back as expectations have likely come down,'” Oliver reports.

“Wu said his check into the company’s supply chain have turned up no evidence to suggest a major hardware revelation will take place at the event,” Oliver reports. “Instead, he sees a ‘modestly redesigned 4th generation iPod nano and slimmer 2nd generation iPod touch with lower price points and higher storage capacities,’ but isn’t expecting radical changes to the iPod portfolio given the great success and extensive refinement the media players have already undergone.”

“The analyst maintains that the company’s MacBook Pro and MacBook are due for refreshes with more radical redesigns, but aren’t likely to be unveiled at Tuesday’s event,” Oliver reports.

Full article, which also discusses some potential “wild card” announcements, here.

24 Comments

  1. “‘Over the past several days, Apple shares have pulled back as expectations have likely come down,'””

    Of course it has nothing to do with the major drop in the stock market in general. Or maybe Apple causes it all because the world revolves around what Steve has for breakfast.

  2. I’ll admit I’m not expecting anything too grandiose at this event. I’m envisioning a change in design for the iPod line that will give it more of a Macbook Air-like look. It always seems like the computer lines and the iPods kind blend together nicely, and I could see that happening.

    However, the price points and storage capacities are where Apple could really drop a hammer. If you get an 8 gb Touch for $199, that’d be one hell of a buy. If 16 gb hit that price point, that’d be a bomb going off.

    I’m all for the multi-touch tablet/Macbook or whatever, but I’m thinking a launch that significant will have its own spotlight. If it’s coming before Christmas, I’d say that’ll be in late Sept. or early Oct.

    Hey, I could be an analyst! Now where’s my money?

  3. “but isn’t expecting radical changes to the iPod portfolio given the great success and extensive refinement the media players have already undergone”

    Oh I guess since it’s so successful, they don’t need to change it. Everyone still uses Walkmans right?

  4. REMEMBER the “new product” this quarter:

    “Earnings call takeaway: New products in September”
    http://www.tuaw.com/2008/07/22/earnings-call-takeaway-new-products-in-september/

    “Although Apple historically has a lower gross margins in the September quarter because of the Back-to-School promotion, Apple also added that a ‘new product that [it] [couldn’t] discuss’ would also result in lower gross-margins. Throughout the call, Oppenheimer kept throwing out phrases like ‘product transition,’ ‘new additions to the product line’ and a little mantra that went something like, ‘Apple makes state of the art new products that the competition just can’t match. When we do that earlier in an introduction, costs are higher.'”

    We may find out about the “new product” on Tuesday! If not Tuesday then soon after.

  5. “but isn’t expecting radical changes to the iPod portfolio given the great success and extensive refinement the media players have already undergone”

    Yeah, just like they stuck with the iPod mini design when it was successful and refined… oh, wait.

    If there’s no MB/MBP refresh at the event, then there better be one this month. The product channels for them are cleared out, and they are starting to get stale hardware-wise compared to similarly priced PC laptops.

  6. I’m excited for the 4G nano’s form factor since I think the “fatboy” nano was the wrong direction. With a price reduction and bump to 16gb, I’ll be looking to purchase one.

  7. I think new laptops and Mac minis are just around the corner, although not likely to be introduced at this event on Sept. 9. I’ve been getting emails from MacMall, etc., with laptops, iMacs and Mac minis on sale. That usually doesn’t happen until about a month before new models come out, letting Apple clear the retail channel before releasing new models.

    The big announcement will be toward the end of Sept.

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