BusinessWeek: Mind-reeling Apple forecasts not just hype

“There’s a guessing game that goes on with Apple’s quarterly financial reports which goes something like this: Apple gives realistic yet understated forecasts for sales and profit in the coming quarter. Analysts, knowing Apple usually predicts lower results than it delivers, then read tea leaves to give clients the real deal on what to expect,” Arik Hesseldahl reports for BusinessWeek.

“Judging Apple’s current quarter, the first of fiscal 2008, is even more of a mystery. On Oct. 22, when Apple reported fourth-quarter results, Oppenheimer gave what seemed like unusually aggressive targets. Sales would hit $9.2 billion during the all-important holiday quarter, about $700 million higher than the average estimate by Wall Street analysts. Hitting the guidance would mean a 29% increase, compared with 23% a year ago,” Hesseldahl reports.

“Was Apple taking a new tack and giving aggressive numbers closer to the ‘real’ target or still giving the understated outlook? The consensus among analysts seems to be the latter, and they’re back to making predictions for the coming year that may send the minds of even longtime Apple watchers reeling. Even some of the most optimistic among them may be right,” Hesseldahl reports.

Hesseldal covers analysts’ AAPL forecasts, rumors of a thinner, lighter Apple notebook and an Apple tablet, and more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “I ♥ MDN” and “Patrice” for the heads up.]


  1. About 3% of Enterprise buyers are planning on including new Macs among their computer purchases this year. Or is that 3% beyond the tiny fraction that bought them last year? Anyway, while 3% may seem quite modest – especially given the Macs would only be a PART of their purchases – it is a 3% new to the Mac world. Additional sales. What’s more, those sales are likely to generate many more sales within those companies, as well as some within companies that do business with them. A half-percent here leading to two full percent there running on to five percent further on … it’s an avalanche!

  2. Why is wall street never happy unless they are advertising that you will make MUCH MORE than your company can possibly do???

    Then they are UN HAPPY that you did not meet expectations.

    Such a bunch of stupid people. 🙁

  3. I want a MacBook, no CD drive, normal ports (FireWire, etc.), no modem, 10″ or so screen – small and light, good basic laptop that is very durable. I started with the 9″ MacPlus, so can easily go to a 10″ screen for the small size.

  4. I like to imagine what would happen if Steve Jobs didn’t retire, but, instead, sold the company to Google. Google has a similar philosophy as Jobs, they have already collaborated on several projects, and Google would probably allow Steve to retain some degree of influence over product development and, especially, introduction.

  5. I think the new Mac will be a Mac laptop, not a tablet. Apple is too innovative to simply release a tablet that uses Mac OS X with a stylus. An Apple tablet, when one is eventually released, will be a larger version of the iPhone (and iPod touch).

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