“Apple’s iDay will put a $200 million revenue ka-ching on the end of this quarter,” Scott Moritz reports for TheStreet.com.
“The temps are trained, crowd control measures are in place and the stage is all set for Friday’s debut of the huge iPhone. If Apple can pull it all off, this most orchestrated of product introductions should manage to move nearly 400,000 phones out the door on the first day,” Moritz reports.
“Follow this math: There are 162 Apple stores and 1,800 AT&T shops — so exactly 1,962 sales outlets will be pushing the iPhone,” Moritz reports. “The current rumor is that each store is being rationed somewhere between 100 to 250 phones.” Sales will begin at 6pm and end at 10pm local time across the U.S.
“All the campers, long-line sitters and the rest of the willfully determined soon-to-be iPhone owners will likely clean out the shelves in the allotted time. That, of course, assumes that each sale takes 10 minutes or less, and that each store has at least eight clerks ringing the register,” Moritz reports.
“So with 1,962 stores and let’s say 200 phones per store, Apple stands to sell some 392,000 iPhones, I can now reveal,” Moritz reports. “With each phone selling for an average price of $550, Apple stands to take in $216 million in revenue on the evening of June 29. And that’s not including online sales.”
Full article here.
they better have more than 100-250 phones at each store…especially the bigger ones…otherwise it could be an angry mob.
If there’s 150-200 at each store, that’d be awesome.
“With the final changes to the iPhone made last week — including an improved battery and glass instead of plastic screens — it’s fair to assume the phone has just recently been put into full production. This seems to rule out the notion that there are warehouses stuffed to the ceiling with pallets of iPhones.”
Frankly, I don’t believe this statement at all. I think Apple just used the announcement to drive the fervour but that they had made the changes and the production a long time ago. They’ve had six months. It’s very clever promotion but Apple would not hold off production for something like that. They’d hold off the announcement to build demand closer to the launch.
when do the online sales open up? same day? later? i can’t be at a store, and i do need to get iPhone for the wife…..
…may turn out to be harder to do than i thought!
What about Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wenesday? The quarter is looking good indeed…
cptn, you are surely right.
i am wondering what announcements we get this week.
16 gigs? cheap data plans? interesting times….
@shen
‘i do need to get iPhone for the wife…..’
I thought they would only take cash or credit cards. Didn’t realise they did swaps too.
the fact that the public has only been able to get quick flashes but not be able to touch an iPhone is ample evidence for me that cptnkirk is correct that the changes were made long ago. only Apple executives/board members and those who’ve been nda-ed to test out an iPhone have been allowed to touch an iPhone.
all that testing and usage is another reason to believe that the battery numbers are accurate or conservative. for the last 3-4 years, reviewers have shown that apple has beaten every battery number they’ve put out there for ipods.
Anyone else out there with an interest in OSX and Apple computers? Just wondering.
Oh how great would it be if one could filter out the iPhone related news as well as those tired Apple-is-always-perfect-MDN takes.
@shen
getting an iPhone for the wife, before you get one???? we know who wears the pants in your family,lol
At least be smart about it, get her to sign some type of agreement, that if she ever leaves you, she can have the house, your pension, the dog, but the iPhone stays with you!!!!
Based on those predictions, and if they come true, within those 4 hours Apple will sell 3.92% of the 10 million iPhone goal set for sale by the end of 2008. If they can continue production and continue meeting demands, there’s no way they could fail.
The iPhone is bitchin’!!
And it’s just gotten “started”.
derek, you should know that is NOT how i meant that!
…if i meant it that way…. hell i could get at least 3 phones for her on trade. if i can find someone partial to hot redheads, maybe even 4 with prepaid 2 plans!
you going to be in line that day? should i post pictures?
MW: if she read this i would be “black” and blue all over…
Yeah baby – AAPL in fuego!
ka-ching
Anyone else out there with an interest in OSX and Apple computers? Just wondering.
——————–
Absolutely…. But at the moment, the iPhone is Apple’s latest (mobile) computer that runs OSX.
“we know who wears the pants in your family,lol”
hotinplaya, we have a deal, she wears the paints, i get into them anytime i want.
can i say that here? what is this site rated?
@ perdita durango: “Anyone else out there with an interest in OSX and Apple computers? Just wondering.
Oh how great would it be if one could filter out the iPhone related news…”
The iPhone is both a computer and it runs OSX, so yes, everyone here does still have an interest in them. Why can’t you filter out the iPhone news? Just look at the headline and see that it says: “iPhone” and not click on it.
“…as well as those tired Apple-is-always-perfect-MDN takes.”
That is a more true sentiment, but praise to MDN once in a while is well deserved.
If they even have that many to sell.
ApplePi,
doesn’t the quarter end on Saturday the 30th?
I thought they would only take cash or credit cards. Didn’t realise they did swaps too.
Kudos on using an old joke in the appropriate manner.
On a serious note, I believe this article is wrong with regards to the amount of revenue that Apple will book in this quarter or any other quarter.
As far as I can tell, Apple’s new Sarbanes/Oxley-compliant method of accounting for both iPhone and TV means that the revenue is spread across eight quarters, which means that the first evening’s sales will ‘only’ (?) contribute around $27 million. That said, it will also contribute $27 million to every quarter between now and March 2009.
This actually means that the effect of iPhone on Apple’s finances won’t be as extreme or immediate as people seem to believe – the reality of the situation is that the real effect won’t be seen until around September 2008: with the previous five quarters all contributing their portion of amortised revenue from the phone and the commission from the network operators, Apple should see an appreciable rise in revenue and profit.
I know it’s called ‘Mac’DailyNews,
but it’s long been ‘Apple’DailyNews, and I’m happy with that.
MDN is really entertaining (for me) because it reports on all things Apple by garnishing everything from a multitude of news sources – on and off line.
Even when there’s absoulutely nothing happening, they manage to find a few ‘stories’ which always gives me something to read on my favourite topic: APPLE.
What about Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wenesday? The quarter is looking good indeed…
Sorry, but the current financial quarter ends Saturday, June 30th. (30 days has September, April, June, and November…)
Still, as the man said, two days of iPhone sales will add a nice kick to the end of the quarter.
rev is being spread over 24 months no?
@Quevar:
We’ve got to ignore these people. If we were talking about Leopard instead of iPhone, Perdita and their ilk would be complaining about the translucent menu bar, iTunes-like Finder, and the fact that Apple no longer sell Power PC-based Macs.
If Steve announced that every customer that comes into an Apple Store gets a free Mac, Perdita would complain that it’s too hard to find a parking space at the shopping center or that she would have to walk all the way from the car to the Store; they should bring the Mac to the car for her.
better start tracking your iPhone, before others do!
http://web.mac.com/wolfiemac/iWeb/iPhone/Track iPhone /Track iPhone .html
MCCFR said: “…Sarbanes/Oxley-compliant method…”
I know about SO, but this is pretty much where you lost me. However, you conclusion is probably right. It seems to me that the iPhone is Apple positioning itself for the day when iPhones are essentially the high end of the iPod line. This first foray is about establishing themselves in the market and learning the game. There will always be iPods without the phone, browser, etc, but it is clear that there is going to be serious competition from cell phone makers in music player market in a couple of years as flash memory of suitable size to compete with the largest capacity iPods. In that sense, Apple would not necessarily expect huge financial returns on iPhone immediately there is probably a long term plan to prevent loss of music player market share.
Note: I know the iPhone in its current incarnation is much more than just a phone superglued to a Nano, but it seems like a fairly good bet that Apple is in part preparing for the day when smart phones have serious potential as music players. Yes, know that many phones already do this, but until they hold at least 40 GB, they are not a threat to the larger iPods.
When the heck is AT& T going to announce dataplan subscription rates and details for this thing?
It’s almost at the point it’s going to be a joke if they don’t do it by tomorrow.
I hope the iPhone doesn’t become the new Wii, i.e. phenominally popular, impossible to get.
This analysis is pretty good. I’d assume that the larger Apple and AT&T stores in locations like New York, San Francisco, L.A. and Chicago would get about 3 to 5 times the average number of phones cited above, so anywhere between 300 and 650 iPhones.
I’d guess then that the smaller stores would get anywhere between 30 and 50 phones each. Assuming that phones are rationed to less than 5 per person, I’d guess you’d need to be at least the 10th person in line to be guaranteed a phone at smaller stores.
I heard on the radio over the weekend that the AT&T stores were getting 20 (TWENTY!) iPhones each on Friday. This can’t be true. There will be riots.
There will be riots.
And if anyone doesn’t think that’s not been factored in as part of the Steven P. Jobs/Phillip Schiller masterplan to garner as much TV news time and press column inches as possible is underselling Cupertino’s Dr. Evil and Number Two.
I’ll give you even money that if you were track the source of last weeks “AT&T manager’s working with local law enforcement” story and today’s “iPhone stocks arriving under armed guard” story, you’ll find a ‘black’ PR company that has no discernible links to Cupertino, but whose invoicing would reveal billings to one of Apple’s accredited agencies.
I had read (rumor) that the AT&T stores would have made available to them one million phones for all locations total.
I guess the most important thing is how many will be available for sale on Friday. I hope they don’t run out!!!
whoever is the analyst that wrote this one up maybe should have done 2 minutes of homework. Go to a Cingular/AT&T store. notice how none of the lil billies working the desks have very big smiles on their faces. Why? cause they make comission on their sales and guess what from what my friend who works at one of these places told me, At&T won’t be carrying iphones. so the sales will actually be limited to the 162 apple stores and internet sales. Think about it, you honestly think apple could supply almost 2000 stores with enough phones right off the production line. Apple dosn’t typically stock pile a product before releasing it, if you can remember it took two-three months for the high end first generation dual g5 steel case blah blah to reach consumers because some ass at some wealthy college decided to make one big L337 computer room network whatever the hell they were pretended to do with it.