Merrill Lynch: 4 million Apple iPhone shipments total this year

Apple Store“Although market expectations may be higher, Apple will only ship four million iPhones this year and 12 million in 2008, according to a recently released report from Merrill Lynch,” Michael McManus reports for DIGITIMES.

“The report indicates that monthly shipments will initially total 200,000-300,000 and ramp to about one million units by the end of the year,” McManus reports.

McManus reports, “Based on its forecast, Merrill Lynch added that component suppliers for the device are unlikely to see a boost in their revenues in the short-term, though the iPhone should help drive demand for higher-end handsets, which should help suppliers in the long-term.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: If true, the iPhone will face Wii-like supply vs. demand issues in 2007. Get your iPhone early! Note that 4 million iPhones for the second half of 2007, even with a flat shipments rate through 2008, would equal 12 million iPhones or 2 million units over Apple’s publicly-stated goal of 10 million iPhone units shipped by end of 2008.

24 Comments

  1. Also, there is bugger all point in committing to more than 4M given that a) a number of smarter buyers will wait till the G2 before buying and that b) the initial 1-2M users will uncover usage patterns and flaws which Apple can use to improve G2.

  2. If Apple sells four million iPhones in the next two quarters, I would fully expect their sales for next year to be more than twice that. That would not be “flat shipments”, it would be a cut-back … at least, from the December 2007 shipments. And that’s not counting newer, lower-cost models! Look for a solid twelve million next year, if they hit four million this.

    DLMeyer – the Voice of G.L.Horton’s Stage Page Pod Cast

  3. “But why do they suggest that Apple will STOP ramping up supply when it reaches 1m a month?”

    Guess Merrill Lynch isn’t bullish enough to step out too far beyond Apple’s own target of 10m plus the additional rumor of a second supplier with a 5m contract.

  4. two mil in the first 90 days.
    so sayeth O.

    the ever amazing mw: “served”
    (unless you’re ML analyst, in which case, the special word for you is “schooled”

  5. wonder if they are estimating lower to drop the stock for a better entry position.

    The iPhone is essentially a license for Apple to print money. People, meaning out of touch non-techie types, are just starting to realize that.

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