10layers.com asks, “We are not talking about an Arthur C. Clark space odyssey, but could it be that Apple has a shot at outgrowing Microsoft within the next 5 years?”
“Both Microsoft and Apple have seen healthy revenue growth in the last 5 years. Microsoft’s revenues have grown approximately 60% from just under $30B in 2002 to over $44B in 2006. However, while Microsoft has grown linearly for this period, Apple has accelerated with revenues of just under $6B in 2002 growing to just under $21B in 2006. An impressive 250% revenue growth! In other words, Apple has been growing much faster than Microsoft,” 10layers writes.
10layers displays an extrapolation graph that shows “Apple could catch up with Microsoft as early as 2010 or 2011, given the current growth rates,” 10layers writes. “Of course, an extrapolation is just an attempt at predicting the future based on the past. Caveat emptor etc. It is clear however, that it is likely that Apple will give Microsoft a run for their money.”
Full article with graphs here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “LinuxGuy and Mac Prodigal Son” for the heads up.]
Related article:
Apple CEO Steve Jobs’ ultimate goal: ‘to take back the computer business from Microsoft’ – June 16, 2005
I suspect that you would only “authorize”/allow/praise a blogger if you agreed with him.
Most readers of RDM can form their own opinions. We don’t need you to help us.
Thanks, but no thanks.
Carefully Speaking,
I know nothing of your background or ability to judge the writing of Daniel Eran, but I do know that having read RDM since long before the Digg ban, it is quite wrong of you to say “even a broken clock is right twice a day” which infers nothing he writes is correct. Of course he has a mission because he is an Apple evangelist, and there is nothing wrong in that.
You are right however, in saying that he creates “lots of noise”, that’s because his position is so in the face of a hefty majority who do not like the message he brings to the surface. And hence his ban, it was too unpallatable a message to have widely promulgated.
Digg is not in any sense only a ‘news’ resource. It is a source of all kinds of information, including opinions, editorials and other miscellany It is outrageous that RDM was banned for doing nothing more than many other writers and website owners do to get onto Digg. The real reason it was banned was that there is a ferocious band of Microsoft fanatics who would do anything to see RDM taken down rather than have its messages widely broadcast. That is the power of Microsoft, and as recently shown with their desire to “correct” Wikipaedia references about their products, it is not above them to pay for the services to do their dirty work.
I have seen the discussions on Digg, and here, and what is crucial is that the accusations against it are always generalised and NEVER pinpoint factual innacuracies. He he is a prolific writer, and I accept he does make mistakes, but I can assure you he wouldn’t have the quantity of intelligent feedback he get’s if it was as bad as you suggest.
Long live RDM I say. Because I don’t want to live in ‘WorldMicrosoft’ where any alternative opinion is quashed.
FUDsucker Proxy, I am not familiar with the person you’re referring to. I am not that person, certainly.
I have no personal grudge or axe to grind with Daniel Eran – I don’t know him personally at all. I’ve only read his postings on roughlydrafted.com, which repeatedly seemed to me to be lacking in credibility.
This isn’t an arbitrary, capricious, or malicious judgement on my part.
Rather, it’s based on my reading a number of his postings, and finding myself scratching my head at what I considered to be his simplistic arguments, his selective use of facts, his use of flat assertions as if they were facts, and his penchant for attacking critics for who or what they are, rather than the merits (or lack thereof) of what they said or wrote.
Each of these failings is indeed Eran’s responsibility. It might be tempting to dump all his problems in the lap of that person you referred to, but Eran’s writings are (presumably) his own, and they stand or fall on readers’ judgements of them.
So if you truly believe that Eran cuts “through the confusion and obfuscation to the core of the issue” and is “clear, concise, and … insightful”, then of course you are free to believe that.
I came to very different conclusions, perhaps because I am looking for strong, logical arguments, backed up with compelling evidence, that challenge my assumptions. I looked for, did not find, that in Eran’s postings.
Carefully Responding: “I suspect that you would only “authorize”/allow/praise a blogger if you agreed with him.”
Not at all. I routinely read blogs and newspapers and media outlets that have very different points of view than my own.
As I wrote above, I want my assumptions to be challenged with compelling arguments that are grounded in documentable facts, and balanced and nuanced reporting that covers all sides (not just both sides) of any particular issue.
Macaday: “it is quite wrong of you to say “even a broken clock is right twice a day” which infers nothing he writes is correct.”
In retrospect, I believe you are correct, and I therefore apologize for having written that. I was not implying that “nothing he writes is correct”.
I was, and am, saying that in my view Eran’s postings on roughlydrafted.com need to be verified independently, before they can be taken as given.
About Digg.com: I have no knowledge of Digg.com manipulations, and who pays whom for what. Because I am not competent to comment on that subject, best not to.
Lastly, while it is necessary for a media outlet to be factually accurate, it is not sufficient — my criticisms of Eran’s postings are not grounded solely in factual accuracy or lack thereof. In my view, his arguments are not always compelling, and his reporting is usually not balanced. These things matter (to me, anyway), in addition to factual accuracy, in assessing the credibility of his postings.
I certainly do not want roughlydrafted.com to go away or close or anything like that. Rather, I would prefer (not that Eran cares what I think) that he strengthen his writing, arguing, and reporting, so that he could reach those who don’t already agree with him.
Carefully Speaking,
Yes, well it’s unfortunate that you do not carefully think.
FWIW, with all your accusations of Daniel Eran’s — ya know, like Billy Bob (this ‘fact’ seems to allude you) — facts, you have not managed to be more specific, even once.
I challenge you to state atleast three of the numerous — as you are wont to accuse — mistakes in his facts.
Just because you keep repeating your carefully rehearsed schpele doesn’t make it so.
Every person — with any comprehension and deduction skills — will quickly see through your laywer like ability to misdirect and confuse while not actually saying anything.
Some people fall for this.
The reason Apple has grown so rapidly is because they have been working hard to improve products for their normal Apple consumers, as well as consumers at large. Microsoft on the other hand, have been stagnant, and doing everything they can to screw the customers at large. Charging for security subscriptions (pissing off customers AND key vendors), stall of OS release (SP3, the artist formerly known as Vista), releasing crappy products to keep up with Apple (i.e. Zune).
Their whole focus is off what made them a huge company in the first place. Times have changed, and computing environments, technologies, and programming have also changed. Microsoft has not been able to adjust to it, except for the XBOX, which is their saving grace. If their other business units were as successful as XBOX, they would be fairing much better.
The reason Apple has grown so rapidly is because they have been working hard to improve products for their normal Apple consumers, as well as consumers at large. Microsoft on the other hand, have been stagnant, and doing everything they can to screw the customers at large. Charging for security subscriptions (pissing off customers AND key vendors), stall of OS release (SP3, the artist formerly known as Vista), releasing crappy products to keep up with Apple (i.e. Zune).
Their whole focus is off what made them a huge company in the first place. Times have changed, and computing environments, technologies, and programming have also changed. Microsoft has not been able to adjust to it, except for the XBOX, which is their saving grace. If their other business units were as successful as XBOX, they would be fairing much better.
(if this is a double post, it is because MDN refresh not showing comment after submit, even after a reboot)
Hint Hammer: “I challenge you to state atleast three of the numerous — as you are wont to accuse — mistakes in his facts.”
Bzzt. I didn’t accuse him of being factually inaccurate. I said factually accuracy was important, but not enough. Incisive analysis, compelling arguments made from a neutral perspective, balanced and nuanced reporting — these things matter (to me, anyway) as much as factual accuracy.
Specific examples:
First, he accused Greenpeace of extorting money from Apple and other companies. This is simply false. He continued to make these allegations AFTER Greenpeace had clearly stated (in a letter addressed and sent directly to Eran) that Greenpeace does not accept corporate or government money, and that it screens private donations to ensure they are not proxies for corporate donations.
Second, as I have repeatedly stated, Eran selectively chooses to use facts that support his point of view, and ignores or underplays facts that don’t support his view. Feel free to verify this yourself: Step (1) Read any of his postings at random. Step (2) Did you get the impression that he reported, fairly and in a balanced and neutral way, ALL of the pertinent facts related to the issue? No, I didn’t think so.
Third, Eran writes about subjects that he knows nothing about and has no qualifications in – such as chemical and environmental policy. He is a technology guy, in a graphic design environment. He has no expertise in chemicals management or environmental protection. Nor does Eran have any qualifications or expertise in journalism, at least none that he claims on his website.
Fourth, Eran doesn’t seem to know how to construct a cogent argument. Making a bald assertion, and then assuming it’s true does not convince anyone who doesn’t already agree with you.
Fifth, if someone who disagrees with him posts comments on his blog that criticize his arguments, I’ve seen him sometimes delete those comments, and he has openly claimed to ban users too. No, these banned users weren’t being abusive or disruptive or off-topic or anything like that – just disagreeing with him.
Again, factual accuracy is only one necessary part of assessing credibility, at least for me.
Okay, tne new pages feature for comments SUCKS! Get rid of this crap MDN.
Your site needs such an overhaul, and yet THIS is what you have been working on? Nobody is going to post here anymore. This idea SUCKS. Of course NO ONE will read this comment because it is NOT ON THE FIRST PAGE.
BOOOOOOOO
And Goodbye…
And for all of you MDN posters, get a Digg account and move on…
Now block my post BITCHES…
Well, I give you some credit Carefully Speaking, you have argued in a much more grownup manner than the usual folk trying to take apart RDM.
But that still doesn’t make your opinion right!
RDM is one blogger, while Microsoft has an ARMY of journalists, analysts, so-called IT experts a la Enderle, Dvorak et al, and myriads of bloggers in possesion of myriads of expensive laptops, Zunes Xboxes and no doubt funds too, all of whom have been writing the most appalling FUD about Apple for years.
One comes along and writes reasonably in my opinion, from another pespective and he is viciously taken apart. And quite probably sometimes by people toting Microsoft gifts too I don’t doubt.
Macaday: I understand your point about “people toting Microsoft gifts” posting on blogs.
And apparently this is a growth industry. See this article for examples of companies paying new media firms to post favorable comments, including Hollywood film studios, Coca-Cola, Burger King, AT&T, Dodge and Ford. (No mention of Microsoft, though.)
And in a similar vein, Apple and many other companie have a long record of product placement in film and television programs.
For the record, I am not being paid by anybody for my comments on this forum, or any other. I am posting comments as I see them, as neutrally and independent as I can.
when the xbox 360 was originally released, it made a loss for everyone that was sold. I’ts been turning a profit for about 6 months now. Please do your reasearch.
With Microsoft’s Free cash flow of 12,000 compared to Apple’s of 2,200, Apple’s going to have to get to 4x the revenue base of Microsoft before they make as much money.
Also the Linux guys used a similar curve to show that they’d have 110% of the PC market by now. Nothing grows exponentially forever, and Apple’s growth is slowing.
OK Carefully Speaking, why not have a go at giving us your take on the latest from RDM http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/9FB758E7-CA6E-415F-828D-08F01471F6B5.html
This is so enlightening. I was amazed by ABI’s dismissal of iPhone because of its own rather odd definitions of a Smartphone. Daniel now does us all a service by connecting this bunkum with an earlier piece of even greater misleading bunkum about the Zune’s liklihood of success.
Can you argue with that? Surely this should be on Digg and everywhere else for its excellent exposure of ABI Research, who are quite patently, frauds.
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