“Few products have been launched with such a blizzard of publicity as Apple Inc.’s iPhone,” Matthew Lynn writes for Bloomberg.
“To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company. An iToaster that downloads music while toasting bread would probably get the same kind of worldwide attention.,” Lynn writes.
Lynn writes, “Don’t let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the mobile-phone industry such as Nokia Oyj and Motorola Inc. won’t be whispering nervously into their clamshells over a new threat to their business.”
Lynn writes, “The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant.”
Lynn writes, “There are three reasons that Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market — and why it is too early to start dumping your Nokia shares.”
• Apple is late to this party: Apple will have to fight hard for every sale.
• The mobile-phone industry depends on cooperation with the big networks: Apple has never been good at working with other companies. If it knew how to do that, it would be Microsoft Corp… [also] rivals will be pulling out all the stops to prevent the networks offering iPhones.
MacDailyNews Note: We interject to point out that this seems to be straight out of the “talking points” we described in the article “Microsoft Zune Chief: Apple faces tough hurdles if they launch an iPod phone” (January 9). So, we suspect that Rob Enderle, Microsoft Zune Chief Robbie Bach, and Bloomberg’s Matthew Lynn are all reading from the same memo. If Apple doesn’t work well with other companies, how the heck did they get the entire music industry to join them on iTunes Store digital downloads? Imagine all of the negotiations, agreements, and paperwork required to get all of those partnerships worked out!
Lynn’s third reason that Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact with iPhone:
• iPhone is a defensive product: It is mainly designed to protect the iPod, which is coming under attack from mobile manufacturers adding music players to their handsets. Yet defensive products don’t usually work — consumers are interested in new things, not reheated versions of old things.
Lynn writes, “In many ways, that is a shame. The mobile-phone industry is becoming a cozy cartel between the network operators and a limited range of manufacturers. It could certainly use a fresh blast of competition from an industry outsider. It may come — but… it won’t come from the iPhone. Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Ballonknot” for the heads up.]
We have noted Lynn’s comments for future use, whether it be pro or (most-likely) con.
Related articles:
Apple iPhone tops Amazon’s bestselling electronics list in Germany – January 13, 2007
BusinessWeek explores ‘the real genius of Apple’s iPhone’ – January 12, 2007
Wired News: Steve Jobs’ iPhone shows the future – January 12, 2007
Cringely: Apple iPhone will suddenly go 3G, gain features, and be renamed ‘Apple Phone’ – January 12, 2007
Apple’s Phil Schiller gives CBS News hands-on tour of iPhone – January 12, 2007
20 unanswered questions about Apple’s iPhone – January 11, 2007
Report: iPhone could be upgraded to 3G with software update if Apple wishes – January 11, 2007
Report: Rogers Communications to offer Apple iPhone in Canada – January 11, 2007
David Pogue: hands on preview of Apple’s iPhone, ‘gorgeous and so packed with possibilities’ – January 11, 2007
PC Magazine hands-on test of Apple iPhone: multi-touch UI ‘takes the breath away’ – January 11, 2007
Mossberg’s initial take on Apple iPhone: ‘radical and gorgeous’ with ‘brilliant new user interface’ – January 11, 2007
NewsWeek’s Levy interviews Apple CEO Steve Jobs about iPhone – January 11, 2007
Why Apple’s iPhone doesn’t do high-speed mobile phone networks (yet) – January 11, 2007
RealMoney: Apple just blew up the whole damn mobile-phone supply chain with its new iPhone – January 11, 2007
ZDNet: Hands on with Apple’s iPhone: ‘elegant, ravishing, simple, sleek; impeccable & intuitive UI’ – January 11, 2007
Apple iPhone FUD campaign begins – January 10, 2007
Nine ways Apple changed the face of consumer electronics yesterday – January 10, 2007
Analysts and investors applaud arrival of Apple iPhone – January 10, 2007
Top 10 things to love and top 10 things to hate about the Apple iPhone – January 10, 2007
How Apple kept the iPhone top secret for 30 months – January 10, 2007
Hands-on with Apple’s iPhone – January 10, 2007
The only thing really wrong with Apple’s iPhone is its name – January 09, 2007
Is Apple building ‘The Device?’ [revisited] – January 09, 2007
Analyst Bajarin: Apple’s iPhone and Apple TV are industry game changers – January 09, 2007
Time: ‘iPhone could crush cell phone market pitilessly beneath the weight of its own superiority’ – January 09, 2007
Analyst: Apple iPhone should be given its own category – ‘brilliantphone’ – January 09, 2007
Cingular to use Synchronoss Technologies’ platform for Apple iPhone – January 09, 2007
iPhone photos from Apple’s Macworld Expo booth – January 09, 2007
Enderle: Apple’s iPhone is going to do very well – January 09, 2007
Apple debuts iPhone: touchscreen mobile phone + widescreen iPod + Internet communicator – January 09, 2007
Dvorak on Apple iPhone: ‘I think Apple can do wrong and I think this is it’ – January 13, 2007
USA Today writer: Apple iPhone is an ‘ordinary, average product’ at heart – January 12, 2007
FUD Alert: Analyst – I am pretty skeptical Apple’s iPhone can succeed – January 11, 2007
The Register’s Ray: Apple ‘iPhone’ will fail – December 26, 2006
Analyst: Apple iPhone economics aren’t that compelling – December 08, 2006
CNET editor Kanellos: ‘Apple iPhone will largely fail’ – December 07, 2006
Palm CEO laughs off Apple ‘iPhone’ threat – November 20, 2006
something just occurred to the anti-creative cretin.
The anti-creative cretin wonders if Apple will have to pay Creative a license for the navigation system on the iPhone.
The anti-creative cretin begs an intelligent response from the rabid Mac cultists who have been hypnotized by Steve for so long…who eat raw potatoes and think that they’re apples….who use Macs and think that they just work just because they do….who like the fact that they can get work done without being bothered by the OS like some little hyperactive cretin boy whose about 3 minutes from having a seizure.
To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company.
If Apple is a religious cult, then Microsoft (and its minions; Dell, HP, Gateway, etc…) is a nazi regime!
Better to serve a cult than by choice than a regime by force!
To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company.
If Apple is a religious cult, then Microsoft (and its minions; Dell, HP, Gateway, etc…) is a nazi regime!
Better to serve a cult by choice than a regime by force!
WHOOPS
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />
To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company.
If Apple is a religious cult, then Microsoft (and its minions; Dell, HP, Gateway, etc…) is a nazi regime!
Better to serve a cult by choice than a regime by force!
DOUBLE WHOOPS
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”grin” style=”border:0;” />
Some suggested that Lynn only wrote this piece in order to qualify for his free Acer laptop and Vista. Well I’ve got bad news for him, he didn’t follow the rules because he forgot to mention the non-replaceable battery or the screen which might get scratched.
Therefore his piece didn’t score enough FUD points and he won’t qualify for a free laptop. If he needs more ideas about how it should be done, he needs to look at how the professionals do it.
I am hoping that Apple will come out with a scaled down I phone. Something like a nano is when compared to the regular Ipod that does music and video and photos etc. etc. or even something ‘shufflesque’- simple functional and uncomplicated. Sell it unlocked so it the user can use with any service, and sell it the same Nano price point of $150.00 I’ve looke at a lot of phones and the all have the most annoying user interface and screen scrolling. I think Apple can do better.
Not everyone needs GPS, Email, Web serfing, a camera, Ipod all in one device. I mean the point is to uncomplicate things, rather than multi-task them at least in phone.
For The Multi-tasking device,I would rather see a full service wireless mac book mini laptop with a servicable screen of say size of an actual hardback book (but way thinner) for say $399.00. With 1-2 gb flash memory drives on the horizion this would be the only device that most of us would need for portable laptop use. Email, web searches, online banking, reservations and googlemaps, sending a printout to a wireless printer, logging on to our compter at home etc. etc. Apple would sell millions if they can keep the interface elegant and uncomplicated. No reason why Apple couldn’t do this.
Simple, elegant, functional and with the ‘elan’ that Ives has brought to Apple it would be a huge success.
I bought my first Apple computer (IIC) in 1985, and have never, ever purchased a windows machine, so clearly my biase is with Apple. But I do hope Apple just keeps it Simple. That is why I have been a repeat customer all these years.
Please no flames – I meant to say when With 10-20 Gigabyte flash memory drives over the horizon, not 1-2 clearly those are here for about $34 now.
I don’t think being late to the game matters and I also believe that Apple work out good working relationships with network providers. The iPhone is arguably the coolest, most leading edge phone around but I can get all that functionality for half the price. Not as cool or leading edge however my audiovox makes calls and stores my contacts and syncs and I don’t have to order the data package. It basically works. The biggest hurdle is price. As much as I’d like one, I can’t imagine forking over nearly $700 for a phone in Canada plus the high monthly cost. Call me when it comes down to $400 without required the data package.
Apple should also open it to third party developers.
Of all of these, the “working with the networks” part is probably the most likely to hang up the iPhone’s advance – but whether that would be due more to Apple’s obstinacy or that of the networks’ (or some combination of the two) is debatable.
The Mac cult point is irrelevant, since it doesn’t matter who buys the things, just how many of them, and there’s no evidence given as to the size of this so-called cult, only an unsubstantiated label that attempts to paint a mental picture of “small and marginalized group” (Take note, students, this is a classic name-calling fallacy).
“Apple is late to the party” is also a useless point without showing broad historical trend data, adjusted for differing situational factors, about how often “early to market” companies end up dominating a market to the exclusion of all significant competition.
“iPhone is a defensive product” makes the assumption that all defensive products are essentially rehashed versions of the products they are defending against, without considering evidence that the iPhone may itself be a counterexample of this assertion.
Being Right all the time is an awesome responsibility.