“Few products have been launched with such a blizzard of publicity as Apple Inc.’s iPhone,” Matthew Lynn writes for Bloomberg.
“To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company. An iToaster that downloads music while toasting bread would probably get the same kind of worldwide attention.,” Lynn writes.
Lynn writes, “Don’t let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the mobile-phone industry such as Nokia Oyj and Motorola Inc. won’t be whispering nervously into their clamshells over a new threat to their business.”
Lynn writes, “The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant.”
Lynn writes, “There are three reasons that Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market — and why it is too early to start dumping your Nokia shares.”
• Apple is late to this party: Apple will have to fight hard for every sale.
• The mobile-phone industry depends on cooperation with the big networks: Apple has never been good at working with other companies. If it knew how to do that, it would be Microsoft Corp… [also] rivals will be pulling out all the stops to prevent the networks offering iPhones.
MacDailyNews Note: We interject to point out that this seems to be straight out of the “talking points” we described in the article “Microsoft Zune Chief: Apple faces tough hurdles if they launch an iPod phone” (January 9). So, we suspect that Rob Enderle, Microsoft Zune Chief Robbie Bach, and Bloomberg’s Matthew Lynn are all reading from the same memo. If Apple doesn’t work well with other companies, how the heck did they get the entire music industry to join them on iTunes Store digital downloads? Imagine all of the negotiations, agreements, and paperwork required to get all of those partnerships worked out!
Lynn’s third reason that Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact with iPhone:
• iPhone is a defensive product: It is mainly designed to protect the iPod, which is coming under attack from mobile manufacturers adding music players to their handsets. Yet defensive products don’t usually work — consumers are interested in new things, not reheated versions of old things.
Lynn writes, “In many ways, that is a shame. The mobile-phone industry is becoming a cozy cartel between the network operators and a limited range of manufacturers. It could certainly use a fresh blast of competition from an industry outsider. It may come — but… it won’t come from the iPhone. Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.”
Full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Ballonknot” for the heads up.]
We have noted Lynn’s comments for future use, whether it be pro or (most-likely) con.
Related articles:
Apple iPhone tops Amazon’s bestselling electronics list in Germany – January 13, 2007
BusinessWeek explores ‘the real genius of Apple’s iPhone’ – January 12, 2007
Wired News: Steve Jobs’ iPhone shows the future – January 12, 2007
Cringely: Apple iPhone will suddenly go 3G, gain features, and be renamed ‘Apple Phone’ – January 12, 2007
Apple’s Phil Schiller gives CBS News hands-on tour of iPhone – January 12, 2007
20 unanswered questions about Apple’s iPhone – January 11, 2007
Report: iPhone could be upgraded to 3G with software update if Apple wishes – January 11, 2007
Report: Rogers Communications to offer Apple iPhone in Canada – January 11, 2007
David Pogue: hands on preview of Apple’s iPhone, ‘gorgeous and so packed with possibilities’ – January 11, 2007
PC Magazine hands-on test of Apple iPhone: multi-touch UI ‘takes the breath away’ – January 11, 2007
Mossberg’s initial take on Apple iPhone: ‘radical and gorgeous’ with ‘brilliant new user interface’ – January 11, 2007
NewsWeek’s Levy interviews Apple CEO Steve Jobs about iPhone – January 11, 2007
Why Apple’s iPhone doesn’t do high-speed mobile phone networks (yet) – January 11, 2007
RealMoney: Apple just blew up the whole damn mobile-phone supply chain with its new iPhone – January 11, 2007
ZDNet: Hands on with Apple’s iPhone: ‘elegant, ravishing, simple, sleek; impeccable & intuitive UI’ – January 11, 2007
Apple iPhone FUD campaign begins – January 10, 2007
Nine ways Apple changed the face of consumer electronics yesterday – January 10, 2007
Analysts and investors applaud arrival of Apple iPhone – January 10, 2007
Top 10 things to love and top 10 things to hate about the Apple iPhone – January 10, 2007
How Apple kept the iPhone top secret for 30 months – January 10, 2007
Hands-on with Apple’s iPhone – January 10, 2007
The only thing really wrong with Apple’s iPhone is its name – January 09, 2007
Is Apple building ‘The Device?’ [revisited] – January 09, 2007
Analyst Bajarin: Apple’s iPhone and Apple TV are industry game changers – January 09, 2007
Time: ‘iPhone could crush cell phone market pitilessly beneath the weight of its own superiority’ – January 09, 2007
Analyst: Apple iPhone should be given its own category – ‘brilliantphone’ – January 09, 2007
Cingular to use Synchronoss Technologies’ platform for Apple iPhone – January 09, 2007
iPhone photos from Apple’s Macworld Expo booth – January 09, 2007
Enderle: Apple’s iPhone is going to do very well – January 09, 2007
Apple debuts iPhone: touchscreen mobile phone + widescreen iPod + Internet communicator – January 09, 2007
Dvorak on Apple iPhone: ‘I think Apple can do wrong and I think this is it’ – January 13, 2007
USA Today writer: Apple iPhone is an ‘ordinary, average product’ at heart – January 12, 2007
FUD Alert: Analyst – I am pretty skeptical Apple’s iPhone can succeed – January 11, 2007
The Register’s Ray: Apple ‘iPhone’ will fail – December 26, 2006
Analyst: Apple iPhone economics aren’t that compelling – December 08, 2006
CNET editor Kanellos: ‘Apple iPhone will largely fail’ – December 07, 2006
Palm CEO laughs off Apple ‘iPhone’ threat – November 20, 2006
Apple has never been good at working with other companies. If it knew how to do that, it would be Microsoft Corp
Oh yeah right. That is why Play for Sure is SUCH a bit hit!
What a load of bovine fecal matter. The level of bias is almost palpable.
Matthew’s first draft:
Few products have been launched with such a blizzard of publicity as Microsoft’s Zune,” Matthew Lynn writes for Bloomberg.
“To its fourteen fans, Microsoft is more of a shipwrecked ocean liner than a company. A Zune toaster that downloads music while squirting browned bread would probably garner a few days of worldwide attention.,” Lynn writes.
Lynn writes, “Don’t let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the MP3 industry such as Apple Inc. and um, Apple Inc. won’t be whispering nervously into their 21st century devices over a new threat to their business.”
Lynn writes, “The Zune is nothing more than a luxury turd that will appeal to a few basement-dwelling freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the Zune is irrelevant.”
Lynn writes, “There are three reasons that Microsoft is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market — and why it is too early to start dumping your Apple shares.”
errrr….I meant big hit.
I forgot to add, what kida turd would belive this writer?
Doh! I need glasses….
As someone who works for one of the biggest companies in the cell phone industry I can only say the iPhone introduction sparked a large, and not yet settled, internal debate on what we were doing, how we are doing it, and why we can’t produce the same type of reaction when our new models are announced. Apple has upset the cart and we’re looking to recover. Yeah, publicly we welcome them to the competition. But internally I know there is some concern that Apple will ‘iPod’ our sales over time.
I can also state that several people in my office are looking into converting our current cell phones into iPhones once it is released. Practically a heresy in a company where one is looked down upon if you aren’t using one of our own phones.
It’s a ‘given’ that Apple will upset the current market. It remains to be seen how successful they will be. I look forward to the next couple of years though.
Ah, methinks I smell the cooking of many crows for a tech media banquet sometime in the not too distant future.
That “late to the dance” crap is just that: CRAP. MonkeySoft’s revered leader, BillyBoy Gates, once said of Netscape’s efforts, “The internet is just a fad,” and then proceeded–LATE TO THE DANCE–to realize how utterly stupid his “vision” was and developed IE.
Uh, where’s Netscape now?
Late to the dance. What utter FUD.
So much venom. So little time.
Uh, wasn’t Toyota “late to the dance” relatively speaking? Where’s your GM and Ford dominance NOW?
I believe there is a “cult of (poor) journalists”.
John
they said the same thing about iPod. With it’s different versions and price points it became more than just a mp3 player. With OS X running the iPhone, it well surely become WAY more than a phone. Jusy think of the possibilities.
I expect this within 5 years:
iPhone: just what we have now $249 less once they figure in phne company discounts and such, it’ll be a commodity;
iPhone Pro: runs basic applications $299;
iPhone Extreme: It’s a complete Mac in your pocket $399.
Wow! With articles like this, the establishment MUST be nervous. The iPhone market is going to be “HHHUUGGEEE TOM!” (Thanks iNewt).
Peace.
I’m a fanboy! My religion is the cult of the Macintosh!
And only a few of us will buy the iPhone.
A few dozen MILLION of us that is.
Amazing, I more and more realize that there are indeed cultists: anti-Mac cultists who bash whatever comes from Apple with whatever nonsense they might think about. They immediately label as Mac fanboy whoever says: I use Mac because it simply is better and better experience. Mostly from people having years of experience in other platform but the anti-Mac cultist immediately react “BS, not true, kool-aid drinker, Steve Jobs distortion reality field” and other idiocy.
Guys, there is indeed a cult out there and larger than anyone could think.
Matthew Lynn gets it.
Wake up cultists! Come out from the darkness of Apple’s shadow. Come over to the light side and the promise of freedom only Microsoft can deliver. Save yourselves with Vista and Zune—you’ll be much happier.
Apple’s appeal is limited to morons who don’t get it. Only a fool would get one of those iPod things and dupe themselves into thinking it’s a seamless, simple to use system for enjoying music and video. What a joke. The iPhone blatantly steals the worst features of the Zune and Apple markets it as some breakthrough technology. Typical. So the 3 or 4 Mac users out there will waste their money on Apple’s also-ran phone. Whatever.
Your potential. Our passion.
It’s 2001 all over again. Think about the introduction of the iPod. Apple came out with something that was ahead of the pack. The price was a bit high for ordinary folk ( but eventually it came down).
Analysts didn’t get it…”no one wants this…there’s plenty of this product already…it’s too expensive…” The Apple Death Knell Counter was clicking higher and higher.
We all know how that story ended.
Can lightning strike twice with iPhone? I don’t know, but neither do these doomsayer analysts who get paid to figure it out. Jobs quoted Gretzky and I think some of these dudes should pay attention to the quote if they want to keep their job. “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it’s been”
Yet defensive products don’t usually work — consumers are interested in new things, not reheated versions of old things.
— Uhhh, isn’t that exactly what MS is all about? Reheating old technology (see: Zune, Vista, XP, Win2000, WinME, and so on). On the other hand, what is “reheated” about stuffing OS X in a brand new device that holds hundreds of new patents capable of doing more than any “smart phone” on the market, in a much easier to use, vertically integrated way? So it plays .mp3’s like the iPod. That feature is shared, not reheated. Besides, who is Apple “defending” against with this device? Does the iPod need defending? Come on now….
Microsoft recently zuned it digital music partners. This writer thinks Apple should follow THAT example.
The fact is, everything Steve Jobs said about the current “smart phones” was correct. They are complicated and hard to use. Those are the devices designed for the “gadget freaks.” The design philosophy appears to be, the more buttons we can squeeze onto it, the better. And listening to voicemail sequentially is a pain. And entering names, phone numbers, and addresses onto the phone is a complicated process that I don’t bother doing too much.
Apple made computing easier with the Mac. It simplified digital music with the iPod. The iPhone does the same things for mobile phones. That’s why it will sell better than the 1% target Apple has set. But even at 1%, Apple will sell 10 million devices, and that’s a successful product.
Peter J says, “Can lightning strike twice with iPhone? …”
I agree with your post Peter, but it isn’t lightening that’s striking, its a well aimed, fully loaded marketing canon with an explode on impact shell that’s going to take the cell/PDA market at least as fast as the iPod took the “MP3” market, and that’s being pessimistic.
F A M O U S L A S T W O R D S ???
Dont feed the trolls.
Zune Tang gets it.
But fortunately it can be cured with antibiotics.
Freddy the Pig: “A few dozen MILLION of us that is.”
Make sure you put your pinky up to the side of your mouth, Dr. Evil style when you say that!
Read articles like this one very carefully, kids…
You can hear the terror, dripping from every line. This is not an opinion article, this is damage control, plain and simple.
“Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.”
This is exactly the kind of line you write because you want someone to bring it up years from now. And if the iPhone flops and goes away quietly, no one will. But if it becomes the hinge that the entire industry turns around on, then you can bet lines like this will be brought up again and again. Remember this one?
“There are no significant bugs in our released software that any significant number of users want fixed.” – Bill Gates, 1995
or how about this gem…
“To create a new standard, it takes something that’s not just a little bit different; it takes something that’s really new and really captures people’s imagination — and the Macintosh, of all the machines I’ve ever seen, is the only one that meets that standard.” -Bill Gates, 1984
“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it’s been”
For the Zune
I skate to where the Zune has been, it’s easy just follow the brown skid marks.