MacWorld Expo Apple stock price correlation

“Back in February, I posted a blog about the stock trend of Apple Computer stock as the San Francisco MacWorld convention approaches. In four out of the last five years, Apple Computer stock (AAPL on NASDAQ) has increased by at least 8% and as much as 37%, measured from November 15 to the last day of the Expo in January. Why has this happened? There are several factors that most likely contribute to this such as strong year-end sales of Apple products from holiday shopping and anticipation of new products to be released at the Expo. In addition, there is the heavy promotion of the Expo which is indirect promotion of the stock,” Stockerblog reports.

Stockerblog reports, “The Apple Expos are huge, and amazingly, the convention revolves around this one company. Ever heard of a Dell Expo, or a Hewlett Packard Expo (Hewlett Packard is even an exhibitor at the Apple Expo).”

Full article with table showing the AAPL results since 2001 here.

11 Comments

  1. This indirectly makes a great point. Apple isn’t, as such, competing directly with Microsoft. They’re competing with other hardware manufacturers, manufacturers who because they don’t control the whole widget can’t hope to compete with Apple when they’re on form. Hence why no Dell or HP expso. In turn, by competing with other hardware manufacturers, even if Microsoft get incidental sales for use with Bootcamp etc, they eventually choke off Microsoft lifeblood and win anyway. Class.

  2. On a slightly sifferent note, people need to curb their expectations for what is announced at WWDC. It’s a developer’s conference. So, to me this says, no iPods, no phones, no consumer stuff. Updated computers may be mentioned, but particularly those with developers in mind– like a quad core Mac Pro or something.

    I think the spotlight will be alsmost exlusively Leopard. Then, at the end of Feb or in March, an invitation will go out for an exciting announcement that’s consumer oriented.

    Looking at the way Apple has handled their product announcements the last few years, they have added these special announcements half-way until the next expo. It’s a good idea, seesm to be working very well, and I’d bet it will continue.

  3. The writer would have been better served had he done the analysis between 11/15 and the day after the Keynote Speech, instead of the end of Mac Expo. There is a high number of volume sales that occur once Steve has let the cat out of the bag, so to speak.

  4. There is actually a HP Technology Forum – I attended this year’s here in Houston – and it’s as cool a show as you can get for it not being Apple ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

    MDN Magic Word “the” – that’s the weakest magic word ever

  5. The reason the percentage will not be dramatic this year is as follows:

    – MacBook thin, iPod m (mobile), iPod HD, etc… We all know what is or should be coming at MWSF or by mid-February, and the market has already built-in these products into the current stock price.

    – Some other shameless Microsoft-laden tech show is going on the same week (to remain nameless), and thus direct comparissons between it and what Apple launched will be examined, undermining Apple’s stand-alone show and product deliveries. “While Apple launched their iPod m, five companies at XXXX showed of their latest music phones as well…”

    Count on the stock dropping by about 14%, but quickly regaining momentum after February when Analysts start weighing in on Apple’s sales.

  6. From the sample given, I calculate a 5.91% standard deviation (square root of the variance, which is the average square of the difference from the mean). That means that, 95% of the time, the stock price will increase between 2.2% and 25.8% during that interval.

    Of course, this is much too small a sample from which to derive any meaningful statistical analysis. The confidence decreases with the sample size. But whatever. I have to put that stupid statistics class to use somehow.

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