“Apple is slated to come out with a new phone. Reports say that it will have a slide-out keyboard, 4GB or 8GB of storage, and work on CDMA or GSM cellular networks. It will start at $249 before subscription rebates,” Michael Kanellos writes for CNET. “And it will largely fail.”
“Initially, of course, it won’t look that way at all. As with any Apple product release, it will be ushered into the world on a wave of obligatory gushing,” Kanellos writes.
“Sales for the phone will skyrocket initially. However, things will calm down, and the Apple phone will take its place on the shelves with the random video cameras, cell phones, wireless routers and other would-be hits,” Kanellos writes. “Why won’t the Apple phone succeed? It will be a great piece of hardware that, if I wasn’t the cheapest man in North America, I might buy. The entire strategy, however, is based on what I call ‘iPod magic.’ Apple succeeded with the iPod, the theory goes. Therefore, they can break into other categories and turn them upside down.”
“But the iPod looks like it may turn out to be a non-repeatable experience. Look at the historical record. When the iPod emerged in late 2001, it solved some major problems with MP3 players,” Kanellos writes. “Unfortunately for Apple, problems like that don’t exist in the handset business. Cell phones aren’t clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good.”
Fans of insipid blather can read the full article here.
The phones that the vast majority of people have today suck. Kanellos’ amazingly incongruous point that they call the Blackberry the “Crackberry,” so it must be good and therefore nobody will want the iPhone, could only have any chance of working if: a) it actually is good and b) if the vast majority of people have Blackberry smart phones, which they don’t. Kanellos also thinks that because Apple hasn’t sold 100 million Mac minis that the iPhone will be a failure. No, really, he does. With that kind of “logic” in play who needs nonsense?
While a requiem for vapor is yet another interesting way to waste bandwidth, we’ll wait for the product to actually be released before we comment further, thanks. In the meantime, you can bet your Mac that Kanellos’ article has been iCal’ed here at MDN for future reference.
Spreading the FUD pretty early now aren’t we CNET? You don’t have a clue what the iPhone is or it’s features and you think it will fail. Apple came into the MP3 business quite late in the game and all of you FUD spreaders said the same thing about the iPod.
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Look what happened.
Apple is a different breed, everyone is stuck in the 90’s breed of Apple. Well this new Apple is much different and much smarter and they’re proving it everyday.
So let’s just see what the iPhone can really do and how it really works before we spread the FUD, shall we.
– “I still can’t believe this! All this hype for something so ridiculous! Who cares about an MP3 player?”
– “All that hype for an MP3 player? Break-thru digital device? The Reality Distiortion Field is starting to warp Steve’s mind if he thinks for one second that this thing is gonna take off.”
– “Better bring that price down or you wont sell any of these babies”
Comments from clueless readers after the 2001 iPod introduction.
Let’s wait and see…
the phone will be our new purse for making payments as well.
Everybody is spending money now and than, don’t they?
I’ve been waiting for a couple of years now to buy a new cell phone…. WAITING FOR THE iPHONE!! Release it already!!
Let’s play Santa for this guy! Let’s collect some cash so he can celibrate Christmas in Sadr-City Iraq…..
MacB
….what a dumb piece of “nostradamus playing” shit…
New phones come out very frequently.
Apple is too slow to bring out new product. (whether it be phones, mp3 players or computers.)
Apple can´t compete in the fast changing phone market.
I hate CNET. The only good CNETer is a dead CNETer.
That’s right, I went there.
Cell phones suck. They’re crap to program and navigate on.
Apple has a real chance to change the way people use cell phones, marry it to the computer with good software, killer interface and great features.
I’m ready to ditch my Razr, it REALLY sucks and it is the best cell phone I ever had.
Kanellos should work at Microsoft. With his attitude that existing products are already so good that there’s no need to innovate further, he’d fit right in. In fact, I’d like to suggest to him that, over the course of human history, everything that needs to be said has already been written, so he should put away his keyboard. All the words we need are already available, and anything new that’s written is bound to fail.
“Cell phones aren’t clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good.”
no, they’re not, in my experience. they’re not rugged, they’re flimsy, and navigating the menus is often a frustrating experience. personally i DO want Bluetooth on my phone, but if i want that feature i have to get a phone with some crap camera feature i’ll never use.
if all Apple does is come out with a more rugged, reliable phone that has an intuitive user interface…and that’s ALL…i’d buy it.
What other predictions has Kanellos made and how accurate has he been in seeing the future? Surely, Kanellos has a history of his prognostic skills. He could be right on the mark or he could be full of crap.
I have a Treo 650 which is good but is SO lacking in SO many areas. The GUI is mediocre at best (and it has one of the best GUIs out there, IMHO). There’s SO much room for improvement.
I only know one thing: Steve Jobs has impeccable taste and I, for one, will put up my Treo on eBay the day the iPhone comes out.
I agree that the iPod had a very different position in the market than the iPhone will and that, because of that, is not analogous. I do not recall anyone saying that is the cases. I also do not believe that the iPhone has to, or can, dominate the cell phone market like iPod. Only the very delusional would think so. It has to sell well enough to be profitable.
However, there is one part of the iPod story that is analogous – people are drawn to hardware that is simple and easy to use (eg clickwheel). I agree that there is already a lot of good hardware out there. However, if Apple can give a better onboard software experience, that will differentiate it. I really like my phone, but the menu system is needlessly complicated and poorly organized. Part of this comes from the service provider wanting to stick their bullshit in and to impose their limits on the hardware.
The related area is integration of hardware with computer. Oh, I can connect it. But the experience is very MicroShaft-esque. If Apple can deliver a phone that actually is easy to sync and manage, like an iPod, then THAT will be something that no phone delivers in the US right now. It is also something people will gravitate to. Not saying RAZR like blockbuster. Saying profitable.
The last thing is that, sure, cell phones in the US are good. However, in other parts of the world, they are great. The service providers cripple them or make sure they do not have top of the line features in some areas while they wait to figure out how to monetize the features. Hopefully, the iPhone will change that.
Of course, that is all based on Apple’s track record. However, the argument that US cell phones are state of the art is goofy.
“…As with any Apple product release, it will be ushered into the world on a wave of obligatory gushing,” Kanellos writes….”.
That’s right. Now, bow down.
Seriously… The phones from Apple are going to have a hard time cathcing op to some of Sony Ericssons best. Trust me, I want an iPhone but if it is less than stellar, my K800i is coming out of the drawer again. Slow interface and unintuitive texting kills phone companys. Ask Siemens/benQ. If the iPhone is not super, it will become a kiddy-phone, like LG or Samsung… Not the best segment. My two cents…
I hate my phone. Give me an Apple designed product anyday.
Next years CNET headline-
“No One Buying iPhones!!!”
(because they are all sold out)
I am a S.F. analyst too.
And I am a friend of Michael Kanellos.
Let me tell you guys, Michael Kanellos is ALWAYS right.
If he says that the iPod phone will fail — IT WILL FAIL.
That’s why he is an analyst and you guys are not.
He went to school for that stuff.
He has a degree in that stuff.
He has experience saying that kind of stuff.
And when an analyst like Michael Kanellos say something,
everybody listens — and Mac Daily News publishes what
he says — because everyone knows he is most likely CORRECT.
So there you have it.
Michael Kanellos is an analyst and Michael Kanellos knows the iPhone
WILL FAIL.
The iPhone won’t “squirt.”
My Motorola looks really cool…and I hate it. Non-intuitive interface. I make a call/receive a call. I do ot use any other feature, even the camera (it sucks). The radio in it sucks….needed a special connector which I bought and used for 1 day.
My wife literally hates her Treo. What a piece of design garbage that is.
Would love to have a useable camera with easy to transfer pictures An intuitive contact list. Maybe an iTunes music interface to play a few tunes. But most of all, good sound!
Apple has a chance to do it right. Will they, who knows but experience tells me that since Stevie-boy has been taking his time on this, I suspect he will be doing it right. I will buy one.
The iPhone ‘MIGHT’ fail…. BUT its gonna sell but the truck loads….
If the iPhone is real
If it works half as well and intuitively as my iPod
I will replace my RAZR in a heartbeat
else
I will continue to live with a crappy interface, crippled features,
and unbelievably bad support
else
I will be sad.
Cell phones: “really good.” Hahahahahaha. Like Windows, cell phones and the cell carriers have taught untold millions to accept mediocrity, inconvenience and frustration as the norm. And THAT’s unfortunate.
For myself, the success will stand and fall with the pricetag and the phone being not bundled with a certain provider.
The iPod wouldn’t have been a success either if they would have bundled it with a subscription.
I saw this guy as a guest commenter on cNBC. His bias against Apple products was so palpable and evident, that I remembered his name (never heard of him before.)
At the time, he was ridiculing the Macbook as far too expensive, and nobody will buy it (except fringe groups like silly students who think its pretty) when they can get a Dell for $300 less. What struck me is that he NEVER mentioned the differences and advantages of the Mac OS. I became suspicious of his motives…
Now it’s all clear what Kanellos is all about…
~~My sincere sympathies to the Kim family and friends~~
Funny, my Mom just got a new cell. And it took ME about 10 minutes to find the voicemail command. Then I begged my mom to write down the key sequence so she wouldn’t get lost in the menus. It reminds me of the days of DOS software “It’s user friendly cuz it’s menu driven…”
SJ does not walk on water and I don’t know if Apple will get it right. But there IS definitely room for improvement. And if Apple gets it right, they’ll certainly get mindshare and have distribution clout.
Honestly, I find it hard to find the phone in the current generation of phones.