“Needham & Co.’s Charles Wolf has joined the ranks of several other Wall Street analysts who recently boosted their outlook on Apple Computer, raising his 12-month price target on the company’s shares to $115,” Katie Marsal reports for AppleInsider.
“Wolf said his new price target of $115 is based on a ‘more realistic reading of the switch rates among Windows users’ that should ensue from the Mac’s ability to run Windows applications through Boot Camp under the upcoming Leopard operating system,” Marsal reports.
Marsal reports, “Under the analyst’s revised valuation model, he employs the actual mean switch rates of Windows users rather than the increase in the mean switch rates. He assumed that the only Windows users who switched were those in the U.S. and European home markets — which represent about 20 percent of the worldwide PC market. ‘Our forecast has Apple’s share of these two markets increasing dramatically — from 9 percent in 2006 to over 40 percent in 2016,’ he told clients. ‘A significant portion of the increase results from our plausible assumption that once they switch, a high percentage of Windows users will stay with the Mac platform when they subsequently upgrade.'”
Marsal reports, “Still, Wolf noted that only a third of Mac sales are generated in the U.S. and European home markets, adding that it’s likely the Windows-on-Mac effect will invade other segments of the worldwide market, most notably education and the small and medium business markets. ‘A more accurate measure, then, of the iPod halo and Windows-on-Mac phenomena is Apple’s share of the worldwide PC market,’ he wrote. ‘This increases more realistically from 3.5 percent in 2007 to 8.3 percent in 2016, the last year in our forecast.'”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Wolf’s forecast of Apple increasing share of the U.S. and European home markets from 9 percent in 2006 to over 40 percent in 2016 should be of serious interest to software developers. Of course, trying to accurately project anything out to 2016, including Wolf’s 8.3% worldwide share figure for Macs, is quite impossible.
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