“After seeing the Zune offering, no one is more surprised than I am that the majority of potential buyers intend to buy a Zune rather than an iPod in the coming weeks,” Rob Enderle writes for TechNewsWorld. (Please see: Survey: 58% of iPod owners planning another MP3 player purchase will consider Microsoft’s Zune – November 01, 2006)
MacDailyNews Take: That’s because Rob’s not smart enough to figure out that any survey can be manipulated or simply fouled up by asking the wrong questions, phrasing queries incorrectly, etc.
Enderle continues, “The ABI survey may simply go to show that those of us in the industry may not always get what the buyer wants. Often, what looks unattractive to us may be attractive to the audience targeted by a specific device.
MacDailyNews Take: Again, the dope doesn’t seem to grasp that surveys are not the Word of God. Far from it. You can make surveys say whatever you’d like. Watch:
Do you think $20 per US citizen is enough for our national parks?
• Yes
• No
• Don’t know
You’ll get plenty of answers to this question, but only a very small percentage of respondents will actually be informed enough to know if $20 per person is too little, too much, or just the right amount. Now, let’s load up the question:
Given that the federal defense budget exceeds $1800 per US resident, do you think $20 per US citizen is enough for our national parks?
• Yes
• No
• Don’t know
Imagine how the numbers would skew! See, you can make a survey say whatever you’d like. No, we don’t expect Enderle to be able to comprehend it even after our excellent and very simple exposition.
Enderle continues, “With increasing reports of iPod problems and the arrogant response to the Random Shutdown Syndrome annoying many of the Apple loyalists, maybe it isn’t surprising that folks want to switch.”
MacDailyNews Take: Yeah, “folks want to switch” to Zune because a small percentage of iPods and MacBooks had some issues that Apple is or has already addressed. And, since when is a firmware update an “arrogant response?” Rob “No Proof” Enderle just makes it up to suit whatever he’s ranting about that day. We once wrote, “Picking apart these Enderle messes sometimes makes us feel bad; it’s like taunting the retarded.” We meant it.
Enderle continues, “Of course, the survey could simply be designed to make Microsoft executives who made a bad decision look smart before the reality of actual sales sets in. Surveys that don’t require the actually spending of real dollars are relatively unreliable anyway. However, it is also true that tastes change, and while Apple’s designs may be Porsche at the core, kids are actually buying Scions, which are closer to the Zune in terms of core design elements.”
MacDailyNews Take: Okay, so Enderle actually does seem to get it that survey’s like ABI’s aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, yet that didn’t deter him from making it central to his whole piece. Then he launches into a horrible car analogy. iPods are “Porsches?” Since when does “Porsche” dominate the automobile market as Apple dominates the portable media player market with iPod? Since when does a Porsche cost less than a Scion as iPod does vs. Zune? Enderle sometimes gets so nonsensical and illogical that he just evokes pity. And yet, certain judgement-impared outfits continue to pay him to write about and comment on tech matters.
Enderle continues, “So, the survey could be right and Zune could, in fact, be very successful, which would make for a very interesting end to a very interesting year.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: After Enderle seems to understand that surveys can be designed to report back whatever you’d like, he closes with, “So, the survey could be right and Zune could, in fact, be very successful.” His whole piece is, as usual, baseless. And, we’ve already explained why, in the Zune vs. iPod bout, Apple cannot lose and Microsoft cannot win.
Related articles:
Microsoft Zune to be US-only, no firm plans to launch anywhere else globally – November 03, 2006
Five Microsoft Zune TV commercials – November 02, 2006
JupiterResearch: Apple’s iPod will dominate for foreseeable future; Microsoft’s Zune insignificant – October 25, 2006
Ellen DeGeneres Show gives away Microsoft Zunes, studio audience goes berserk – October 23, 2006
More Microsoft Zune myths explored – October 20, 2006
Five more Microsoft Zune myths – October 18, 2006
Microsoft Zune intensifies chaos in Apple iPod+iTunes also-ran market – October 16, 2006
Newsweek Q&A: Apple CEO Steve Jobs discusses iPod’s impact, Microsoft’s Zune, and more – October 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Ballmer: Zune device not money loser, wishes Apple’s 30GB iPod was $299 instead of $249 – October 11, 2006
Microsoft’s consumer electronics track record: long string of failures – October 11, 2006
MP3.com founder: ‘Zune will be an expensive failure for Microsoft because consumers aren’t stupid’ – October 06, 2006
Microsoft fails to secure key Zune domains – October 04, 2006
Microsoft rigs Zune with tricky pricing and proprietary money schemes – October 03, 2006
Why Microsoft’s Zune won’t kill Apple’s iPod – October 03, 2006
10 Apple iPod vs. Microsoft Zune myths – October 02, 2006
Analyst: Zune could lead to ‘civil war’ between Microsoft and Windows Media partners – September 29, 2006
Thurrott on Microsoft’s Zune: ‘The makings of a disaster, what the heck are these people thinking?’ – September 29, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune’s as good as dead on arrival – September 28, 2006
Microsoft sets 30GB Zune price at $249.99 – September 28, 2006
How Microsoft’s Zune can kill Apple’s iPod – September 21, 2006
Microsoft’s Zune insanity – September 21, 2006
The Microsoft Zune 1.0 dud – September 20, 2006
Microsoft’s underwhelming Zune a ‘viral DRM’ device – September 18, 2006
SanDisk teams with RealNetworks against new common foe: Microsoft Zune – September 18, 2006
Creative does Apple’s dirty work by immediately attacking Microsoft’s Zune – September 17, 2006
Motley Fool’s Jayson: Microsoft’s ‘just plain ugly’ Zune a meager offering, not an iPod killer – September 15, 2006
What’s in a name? ‘Zune’ a French-Canadian euphemism for penis or vagina – September 15, 2006
Crave at CNET: ‘Microsoft Zune, all the excitement that brown can bring’ – September 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Zune underwhelms – September 15, 2006
Enderle: Microsoft Zune ‘a design mistake’ – September 15, 2006
Microsoft hypocrisy exposed with Zune: What ever happened to ‘choice?’ – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune with fake scroll wheel ‘hardly an Apple iPod killer’ – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune won’t spoil Apple’s biggest iPod Christmas ever – September 14, 2006
Microsoft unveils Zune 30GB player, Zune Marketplace; declines to disclose prices – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft’s Zune an ‘underwhelming’ repackaged Toshiba Gigabeat; no threat to Apple iPod – August 30, 2006
Microsoft confirms brick-like Zune to be made by Toshiba – August 25, 2006
Microsoft Zune is chunky brick made by Toshiba – August 25, 2006
Microsoft to spend hundreds of millions, several years on Zune trying to catch Apple iPod+iTunes – July 27, 2006
Zune: Apple cannot lose. Microsoft cannot win. – July 26, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: MSN Music stops selling music downloads – November 03, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: Japan’s Oricon bows out – November 01, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: Tower Records liquidated – October 09, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Dell’s ‘DJ Ditty’ flash-based MP3 player is dead – August 22, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Music Store’s play button: MyCokeMusic is dead – June 20, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: iRiver gives up on digital media player market – May 23, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Sony’s Walkman Bean is cooked – February 13, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Dell dumps ‘DJ’ hard-drive MP3 player line – February 04, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: iRiver pulling out of Europe? – February 01, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Thomson gives up on MP3 player, CE markets – December 12, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: BenQ withdraws from MP3 player markets – November 28, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Olympus halts production of portable digital music players – November 09, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Rio is dead – August 26, 2005
Apple’s iPod has blood on its Click Wheel: Virgin Electronics is dead – March 08, 2005
Apple’s iTunes Music Store has blood on its play button: BuyMusic.com is dead – March 28, 2004
It’s worth keeping an eye on Amazon’s top seller list. The Zune is at #9. SanDisk has one at #3. The rest of the top 10 is all iPod.
While one could point out that the Zune isn’t available yet, the new Shuffle isn’t either and it’s at #4.
Also, there is only one model of Zune, while the “Nanos” break down into several models, each in the top list.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172630/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/104-3929951-7872717
Apple will gladly allow MS to get it wrong (WiFi and media) and then get it right with iPod 6G. No need to worry about Xmas 2006 iPod sales because Zune won’t generate enough buzz or sales fast enough. Plus, MS will be losing money on the device versus fat iPod profit margins.
So let it get a small, tenious foothold at a big loss, against the existing profitable product. Then totally obsolete it in January with better tech and far superior design (iPod 6G and iPhone variants).
I think everyone would opt for Porsche versus Scion if the price points were the same. Of course, we all know the Zune is more like an ugly brown Kia that squirts along at 45 mph in a 65 mph zone. The only people interest in switching are contrarians that don’t really like Apple–and wish they didn’t have to be in the mainstream. Let’s face it, iPod is the popular favorite. Some people just long to be different. Their loss.
MW: Running, as in MS is running to catch up
PS: I love the squirt jokes–it just doesn’t get old for me.
Emderle is a tool.
Burn another one down, Enderle.
Thanks Bill (fake name)
I started to watch the walkthrough, which froze at 2:28, which is fortunate because I had seen enough to almost lose my lunch. What a hideously busy interface! If ZUNE wasn’t already a euphemism for crap it zune would be. (sorry couldn’t resist!)
Success would be easy to identify if Microsoft would provide the number of sales required for success, until then success is ambiguous and debatable.
I watched the walk thru. AMAZING how for photos it doesn’t read the tags and orientate the photos. MS is clueless about details and users. PC people are a strange bunch.
is this Ederle guy on the MS payroll? One of those consultants or freelancers that get paid, but claim they’re independent. I truly believe a lot of PC writers are this. MS pays them off
Let’s see some actual sales numbers in a few months before we proclaim the Zune as any kind of success. If they can claim 10% market share over the holiday, then I’ll be highly impressed.
We’ll start to see on November 14th. Who cares about speculation.
Right, the Zune could be very successful and a 98-year-old great-grandmother could win the 100-yard dash at the next Summer Olympics. Nothing is impossible!
Well….IF we ever see one, then let’s see how well this also-ran sells.
As a marketer, it’s EASY to manipulate the answers to hear what you want to hear, all you need to do is load up the questions in the right order like this:
Do you ALWAYS follow the crowd in making buying decisions?
Would you consider the Microsoft Zune when you buy your next mp3 player?
It’s also different if a hot guy/girl is asking you this and if it’s a grumpy old man. Are you in a room with other people or at home online?
People also say a lot of things they have ZERO intention of actually doing – will you donate much more time to charity & the needy this year?
Will you pledge to excerise & eat heathier?
And do you think 10 minutes later, they are at the Cinnabon store?
If only he was a betting man… perhaps Zune will be successful, but I’d love to bet against it thank you. =)
Screw your customers & screw your partners…that’s the MS way
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6120272.stm
jbelkin:
“And do you think 10 minutes later, they are at the Cinnabon store?”
Not me. I wouldn’t waste ten minutes of my life taking a ridiculous ABI survey.
I’d be at the Cinnabon store chowing down on a delicious Cinnabon, the best cinnamon roll in the world.
The Zune player coming out soon is just the first device for what is to be a platform for different devices. No, the player isn’t going to unseat Apple’s iPod right out of the gate, but it’s just a start. I think the survey demonstrates that people are willing to give Zune the benefit of the doubt, or at least reserve judgement until they actually see it. . .which is more than anyone can say for the blind loyalists that run this site.
ABI is notorious forputting out surveys that are pure crap!
Take a look at their surveys from 3 years ago about how many WCDMA 3G subs there’d be by now…
ABI is full of CRAP and their previous ‘surveys’ and ‘reports’ prove it!
Who else is up for heading over the the Cinnabon? Reading the past few comments made me hungry!
Deal ‘Zune’:
It’s true, seems people are going to reserve judgement until they meet you in person. But let’s not get too excited about that day just yet.
When people find out how you really work, and they discover that your squirting has been mis-characterized by MS marketing, they might not like you as much as you hope. Once they find that your main feature is nearly useless almost all the time, they might return you to the store and get the Nano they really wanted in the first place.
Maybe. Maybe not.
But hey’ we’ll see in another week, won’t we? ^_^
You see, I realized something when my black Nano arrived a few weeks ago… the packaging, the presentation, the whole feel of the consumer experience – it didn’t feel like a piece of consumer electronics at all. There was no manual (or need for one) or big wasteful box with ad copy all over it. No marketing slogans or any appeal to my hipness.
It was just a simple device, and this is the genius part. Apple wants buying a music player to be exactly as complicated as buying a pair of sunglasses. You find one that looks kinda cool, that is useful and durable enough for the way you use it, and is, say, pink. Or in my case, sexy, sexy black.
This is what a music player for the masses *should* be.
But you, Mr. Zune, come with your own social engineering scheme that we’re being told is, if I may embellish, totally boss. It requires that I forget most things I know about human nature and believe in a world where person-to-person up-sell is fun and will make me popular. It depends on me believing that people on a city bus are going to have music that I’m interested in, *and* that this interest will cause me to actually talk to them.
I can’t help but think of iTunes at this point. Lots of people in my office use iTunes, and we all share our libraries on the network. It’s *very* cool. I can browse their music easily and listen to what I want any time. I can even use OurTunes to ****DELETED*CLASSIFIED*DELETED****.
But there is NOTHING personal about this exercise. I’m basically getting on a server and taking what I want. I don’t develop any kind of personal network with these people, they are for all practical purposes just folders on the server. And this experience is much more open and free of restrictions than yours, Mr. Zune.
So I wonder how your system will do, if a better system is already in place (albeit using a different hardware paradigm, but the idea is the same) and not creating the environment that you think it will.
Like I said, we’ll see. Good luck next week!!!
-c
MW: ‘century’ (of Microsoft? I give it 5 more years.)
Here’s my $.02…
Yes, the Zune will be moderately successful, though not a juggernaut like the iPod. MS will do this by using their, well, money – which is more than the iRivers and Creatives can even dream of. Yes, Zune will slightly hurt the iPod’s sales, but not crush it.
iPods will continue to grown, though not at the rate it has grown in the past couple of years. Apple must (and hopefully will) add an extra incentive to buy iPods. That is because the days of the iPod being the “cool, new gadget” are over. It’s obviously not new any longer and the fact that EVERYONE owns one may unravel it’s coolness. (One would imagine that the true video iPod will be coming alongside the iTV, so that users can wirelessly transfer video from one to the other. But that’s just speculation, Apple, so don’t sue me if I am correct.)
Just my thoughts.
How to read a poll:
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html