Enderle: Microsoft’s Zune could be very successful

“After seeing the Zune offering, no one is more surprised than I am that the majority of potential buyers intend to buy a Zune rather than an iPod in the coming weeks,” Rob Enderle writes for TechNewsWorld. (Please see: Survey: 58% of iPod owners planning another MP3 player purchase will consider Microsoft’s Zune – November 01, 2006)

MacDailyNews Take: That’s because Rob’s not smart enough to figure out that any survey can be manipulated or simply fouled up by asking the wrong questions, phrasing queries incorrectly, etc.

Enderle continues, “The ABI survey may simply go to show that those of us in the industry may not always get what the buyer wants. Often, what looks unattractive to us may be attractive to the audience targeted by a specific device.

MacDailyNews Take: Again, the dope doesn’t seem to grasp that surveys are not the Word of God. Far from it. You can make surveys say whatever you’d like. Watch:

Do you think $20 per US citizen is enough for our national parks?
• Yes
• No
• Don’t know

You’ll get plenty of answers to this question, but only a very small percentage of respondents will actually be informed enough to know if $20 per person is too little, too much, or just the right amount. Now, let’s load up the question:

Given that the federal defense budget exceeds $1800 per US resident, do you think $20 per US citizen is enough for our national parks?
• Yes
• No
• Don’t know

Imagine how the numbers would skew! See, you can make a survey say whatever you’d like. No, we don’t expect Enderle to be able to comprehend it even after our excellent and very simple exposition.

Enderle continues, “With increasing reports of iPod problems and the arrogant response to the Random Shutdown Syndrome annoying many of the Apple loyalists, maybe it isn’t surprising that folks want to switch.”

MacDailyNews Take: Yeah, “folks want to switch” to Zune because a small percentage of iPods and MacBooks had some issues that Apple is or has already addressed. And, since when is a firmware update an “arrogant response?” Rob “No Proof” Enderle just makes it up to suit whatever he’s ranting about that day. We once wrote, “Picking apart these Enderle messes sometimes makes us feel bad; it’s like taunting the retarded.” We meant it.

Enderle continues, “Of course, the survey could simply be designed to make Microsoft executives who made a bad decision look smart before the reality of actual sales sets in. Surveys that don’t require the actually spending of real dollars are relatively unreliable anyway. However, it is also true that tastes change, and while Apple’s designs may be Porsche at the core, kids are actually buying Scions, which are closer to the Zune in terms of core design elements.”

MacDailyNews Take: Okay, so Enderle actually does seem to get it that survey’s like ABI’s aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, yet that didn’t deter him from making it central to his whole piece. Then he launches into a horrible car analogy. iPods are “Porsches?” Since when does “Porsche” dominate the automobile market as Apple dominates the portable media player market with iPod? Since when does a Porsche cost less than a Scion as iPod does vs. Zune? Enderle sometimes gets so nonsensical and illogical that he just evokes pity. And yet, certain judgement-impared outfits continue to pay him to write about and comment on tech matters.

Enderle continues, “So, the survey could be right and Zune could, in fact, be very successful, which would make for a very interesting end to a very interesting year.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: After Enderle seems to understand that surveys can be designed to report back whatever you’d like, he closes with, “So, the survey could be right and Zune could, in fact, be very successful.” His whole piece is, as usual, baseless. And, we’ve already explained why, in the Zune vs. iPod bout, Apple cannot lose and Microsoft cannot win.

Related articles:
Microsoft Zune to be US-only, no firm plans to launch anywhere else globally – November 03, 2006
Five Microsoft Zune TV commercials – November 02, 2006
JupiterResearch: Apple’s iPod will dominate for foreseeable future; Microsoft’s Zune insignificant – October 25, 2006
Ellen DeGeneres Show gives away Microsoft Zunes, studio audience goes berserk – October 23, 2006
More Microsoft Zune myths explored – October 20, 2006
Five more Microsoft Zune myths – October 18, 2006
Microsoft Zune intensifies chaos in Apple iPod+iTunes also-ran market – October 16, 2006
Newsweek Q&A: Apple CEO Steve Jobs discusses iPod’s impact, Microsoft’s Zune, and more – October 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Ballmer: Zune device not money loser, wishes Apple’s 30GB iPod was $299 instead of $249 – October 11, 2006
Microsoft’s consumer electronics track record: long string of failures – October 11, 2006
MP3.com founder: ‘Zune will be an expensive failure for Microsoft because consumers aren’t stupid’ – October 06, 2006
Microsoft fails to secure key Zune domains – October 04, 2006
Microsoft rigs Zune with tricky pricing and proprietary money schemes – October 03, 2006
Why Microsoft’s Zune won’t kill Apple’s iPod – October 03, 2006
10 Apple iPod vs. Microsoft Zune myths – October 02, 2006
Analyst: Zune could lead to ‘civil war’ between Microsoft and Windows Media partners – September 29, 2006
Thurrott on Microsoft’s Zune: ‘The makings of a disaster, what the heck are these people thinking?’ – September 29, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune’s as good as dead on arrival – September 28, 2006
Microsoft sets 30GB Zune price at $249.99 – September 28, 2006
How Microsoft’s Zune can kill Apple’s iPod – September 21, 2006
Microsoft’s Zune insanity – September 21, 2006
The Microsoft Zune 1.0 dud – September 20, 2006
Microsoft’s underwhelming Zune a ‘viral DRM’ device – September 18, 2006
SanDisk teams with RealNetworks against new common foe: Microsoft Zune – September 18, 2006
Creative does Apple’s dirty work by immediately attacking Microsoft’s Zune – September 17, 2006
Motley Fool’s Jayson: Microsoft’s ‘just plain ugly’ Zune a meager offering, not an iPod killer – September 15, 2006
What’s in a name? ‘Zune’ a French-Canadian euphemism for penis or vagina – September 15, 2006
Crave at CNET: ‘Microsoft Zune, all the excitement that brown can bring’ – September 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Zune underwhelms – September 15, 2006
Enderle: Microsoft Zune ‘a design mistake’ – September 15, 2006
Microsoft hypocrisy exposed with Zune: What ever happened to ‘choice?’ – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune with fake scroll wheel ‘hardly an Apple iPod killer’ – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune won’t spoil Apple’s biggest iPod Christmas ever – September 14, 2006
Microsoft unveils Zune 30GB player, Zune Marketplace; declines to disclose prices – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft’s Zune an ‘underwhelming’ repackaged Toshiba Gigabeat; no threat to Apple iPod – August 30, 2006
Microsoft confirms brick-like Zune to be made by Toshiba – August 25, 2006
Microsoft Zune is chunky brick made by Toshiba – August 25, 2006
Microsoft to spend hundreds of millions, several years on Zune trying to catch Apple iPod+iTunes – July 27, 2006
Zune: Apple cannot lose. Microsoft cannot win. – July 26, 2006

More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: MSN Music stops selling music downloads – November 03, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: Japan’s Oricon bows out – November 01, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: Tower Records liquidated – October 09, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Dell’s ‘DJ Ditty’ flash-based MP3 player is dead – August 22, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Music Store’s play button: MyCokeMusic is dead – June 20, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: iRiver gives up on digital media player market – May 23, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Sony’s Walkman Bean is cooked – February 13, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Dell dumps ‘DJ’ hard-drive MP3 player line – February 04, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: iRiver pulling out of Europe? – February 01, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Thomson gives up on MP3 player, CE markets – December 12, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: BenQ withdraws from MP3 player markets – November 28, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Olympus halts production of portable digital music players – November 09, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Rio is dead – August 26, 2005
Apple’s iPod has blood on its Click Wheel: Virgin Electronics is dead – March 08, 2005
Apple’s iTunes Music Store has blood on its play button: BuyMusic.com is dead – March 28, 2004

70 Comments

  1. To Wally Wallet,

    I am glad you like the Zune. I am sure it will play music. And I am told that it will play AAC files too. Interesting. Given that it cost the same as an iPod, though, I am not too sure how many new buyers will rush to buy it.

    Actually, I got a chance to see a real Zune today. Walmart started carrying some for display, not available till the 14th. I looked at it several times and, well, . . I just don’t know. It just does not look — cool. It looks like a — a– box. 🙁 For the same price, and iTunes connections, I really think I would go with an iPod.

    NOTE NOTE. Something to think about. —
    The Zune starts selling in mid Nov. The Zune store will be on line then too, I think.??? But so what?

    I think the real push will be when Vista ships for the public. I believe Vista will have Zune integration and software built in!!! I think that this will be the big push for Zune. A new buyer gets his computer and it advertised for a Zune. “Want great music, get a Zune. Works with this computer, built in!! ” The average user knows nothing and may very well go for it.

    Trouble is, ——- No VIsta until Jan. sometime. PAST the Xmas season. !!!!! I think that will really put a dent in Zune sales after the Xmas season which tends to be a slow time for sales of new toys.

    I just think Microsoft has hosed it again. THEY just do not know how to integrate things, software, marketing and timing. JMHO!!

    N.

  2. MDN – Why dont you just report the news and drop the comments. They are becoming tiresome. How old are you, 15?

    Im a mac and iPod owner. The zune looks like a good device. A good device is a good device. Apple needs competition – it’ll benifit us all.

  3. “That’s because Rob’s not smart enough to figure out that any survey can be manipulated or simply fouled up by asking the wrong questions, phrasing queries incorrectly, etc.”

    And MDN should know, they are experts at manipulating data to show apple’s market share is bigger than it really is.

  4. went to se borat last night, funny stuff; but one of the adverts before the movie was the zune park party clip. my friend that went with me commented that he thought it looked like a good mp3 player. i told him it was doa and explained how microsoft is limiting the formates that are able to play on it, zune only, won’t play “play for sure”, and how ms has pretty much shot their partners in the back on pfs. he agreed, that it was doa.

  5. 58% of people don’t go into a shop blinkered by a mantra that any ipod is better than anything else.

    When the punters can see the goods and then make a decision, that’s the time to ask if they would consider swapping their iPod for a zune.

  6. This whole conversation is all well and good in intellectual terms, but a big problem with the whole plan still remains:
    When I talk to the kidz, they say they want an iPod, that they are waiting for an ‘iPod phone’,and they’d love a MacBook and an AlienWare gaming rig.

    None of them… NOT ONE, has heard of Zune.
    Let me say that again…
    NONE of them have heard of Zune.

    They want iPods.

    =)

    MS’s marketing for this is so fatally flawed that they don’t even see it: They’re trying to paint iPod users as fashion-slaves and sheep, but they offer us the anti-fashion as an alternative. Which is exactly the same thing – making choices based on what others choose.
    This-in-terms-of-that, not a product that stand on its own.
    Zune is therefore nothing without an iPod to compare it against.

    That is why you fail, young Jedi.

    -c

    MW: ‘eyes’ (rarely used in Redmond)

  7. Another poor MDN take.

    For example,

    MDN Take: Then he launches into a horrible car analogy. iPods are “Porsches?” Since when does “Porsche” dominate the automobile market as Apple dominates the portable media player market with iPod? Since when does a Porsche cost less than a Scion as iPod does vs. Zune?

    – If you’re going to bother to comment on the article, you might as well at least get it right. When did Enderle say that the iPod market is like the Porsche market, or the cost similar to that of a Porsche? He didn’t.

    “Apple’s designs may be Porsche”

    If MDN is going to complain about the survey being manipulated, then perhaps they should not be so manipulative themselves.

  8. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”LOL” style=”border:0;” /> Underwear I’m mean Enderle sticks his foot in his mouth yet again. Microsoft is pissing people off by cancelling there own play for sure program and all the music that people bought for there current players won’t even work on the Zune. So how does Enderle see this product being any kind of success when nothing works with it!

  9. People are stupid, so I have no doubt that a good portion of iPod users (most of whom are clueless PC-users) will flock to another big name.

    I doubt though, that a hands-on comparison will make the Zune come out ahead except with only the most dull of dullards. People will just try to use the wheel as if it’s an iPod and they will hate it. And they’ll hate the thickness.

    But yeah, most iPod users,except for an intelligent minority, happen to also be clueless consumers that bought into Gateway, Dell, Compaq, HP for their computers. It stands to reason there is no Apple-loyalty or iPod-loyalty even.

    But just how shitty can the iPod-ripoff-du-jour be and still be good enough for these fools? Time will tell.

    My bet is iPod will reign supreme again this holiday season. And those that switch to Zune will come running back next year.

    Besides, Zune will be canceled next summer anyway. To make way for the next iPod + iTunes killer, of course.

  10. Doop, tommy,

    Has either of you been using a Macintosh for more than 3 or 4 years?

    If you had you would realize, maybe, that a large part of being a Mac user is, sadly, survival in a MS controlled world. And I use the word ‘controlled’ in a literal sense. Not too many other products used by the a consuming public, private or enterprise, have the impact that personal computing does, and right now we live in a world dominated and controlled by a software orthodoxy called Microsoft.

    The news reported and discussed on MDN isn’t simply information, its evidence that someday we might have the freedom to unbiasedly choose what kind of computers and software we use, even in the work place. Its evidence that we are just as “normal” as people who use Windows, maybe more “normal” – certainly more human. And it reminds us that we don’t have to bow down to the millions of MS priests that are churned out of our institutions of higher learning, just because they’ve decided to give up their own freedom and turn over their collective intellects to one single entity – we don’t have to.

    MS’s hold on the consuming public’s money and minds is just plain scary when you stop and think about it for just one small moment. It isn’t just competition, its breaking the binds that have shackled us for over 20 years. I personally look forward to living in a world where it will become regular, legal, competition, but that’s just not the world we live in today.

  11. I hope the zune is just successful enough to make Apple have to make the iPod better and a little bit cheaper in cost. Competition is good and benefits us as consumers. Noone should monopolize and stagnate technology and the industry as Micro$oft has done for years.
    I am still waiting for a $99 2 gig nano of any color I choose, and I think it will happen with the next nano update next year.
    I would like to see the current video iPod priced at $199 on the low end. I think abunch more folks would then buy at that price.

  12. Why dos MDN have an obsession with this Enderle guy? My God, MDN gives this guy more hits then he otherwise gets.

    Everytime MDN writes abut this guy, to me it’s a who cares what he writes. But MDN just keeps legitimizing him. Get off it MDN.

  13. Did anybody watch that interface walk through? Wow what a backwards way of thinking you click music and the first 2 choices aren’t songs they are more menus- It must take 10 to 15 clicks to get back to the main menu.

  14. Think of all kids, from preteens to those in their early 20’s, as potential MP3 player buyers.

    Now think of the subset of those kids that are anti-establishment and dress goth as the potential Zune buyers.

    Microsoft had better hope that not many goth kids have already purchased a collection of DRM’d music.

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