“After seeing the Zune offering, no one is more surprised than I am that the majority of potential buyers intend to buy a Zune rather than an iPod in the coming weeks,” Rob Enderle writes for TechNewsWorld. (Please see: Survey: 58% of iPod owners planning another MP3 player purchase will consider Microsoft’s Zune – November 01, 2006)
MacDailyNews Take: That’s because Rob’s not smart enough to figure out that any survey can be manipulated or simply fouled up by asking the wrong questions, phrasing queries incorrectly, etc.
Enderle continues, “The ABI survey may simply go to show that those of us in the industry may not always get what the buyer wants. Often, what looks unattractive to us may be attractive to the audience targeted by a specific device.
MacDailyNews Take: Again, the dope doesn’t seem to grasp that surveys are not the Word of God. Far from it. You can make surveys say whatever you’d like. Watch:
Do you think $20 per US citizen is enough for our national parks?
• Yes
• No
• Don’t know
You’ll get plenty of answers to this question, but only a very small percentage of respondents will actually be informed enough to know if $20 per person is too little, too much, or just the right amount. Now, let’s load up the question:
Given that the federal defense budget exceeds $1800 per US resident, do you think $20 per US citizen is enough for our national parks?
• Yes
• No
• Don’t know
Imagine how the numbers would skew! See, you can make a survey say whatever you’d like. No, we don’t expect Enderle to be able to comprehend it even after our excellent and very simple exposition.
Enderle continues, “With increasing reports of iPod problems and the arrogant response to the Random Shutdown Syndrome annoying many of the Apple loyalists, maybe it isn’t surprising that folks want to switch.”
MacDailyNews Take: Yeah, “folks want to switch” to Zune because a small percentage of iPods and MacBooks had some issues that Apple is or has already addressed. And, since when is a firmware update an “arrogant response?” Rob “No Proof” Enderle just makes it up to suit whatever he’s ranting about that day. We once wrote, “Picking apart these Enderle messes sometimes makes us feel bad; it’s like taunting the retarded.” We meant it.
Enderle continues, “Of course, the survey could simply be designed to make Microsoft executives who made a bad decision look smart before the reality of actual sales sets in. Surveys that don’t require the actually spending of real dollars are relatively unreliable anyway. However, it is also true that tastes change, and while Apple’s designs may be Porsche at the core, kids are actually buying Scions, which are closer to the Zune in terms of core design elements.”
MacDailyNews Take: Okay, so Enderle actually does seem to get it that survey’s like ABI’s aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on, yet that didn’t deter him from making it central to his whole piece. Then he launches into a horrible car analogy. iPods are “Porsches?” Since when does “Porsche” dominate the automobile market as Apple dominates the portable media player market with iPod? Since when does a Porsche cost less than a Scion as iPod does vs. Zune? Enderle sometimes gets so nonsensical and illogical that he just evokes pity. And yet, certain judgement-impared outfits continue to pay him to write about and comment on tech matters.
Enderle continues, “So, the survey could be right and Zune could, in fact, be very successful, which would make for a very interesting end to a very interesting year.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: After Enderle seems to understand that surveys can be designed to report back whatever you’d like, he closes with, “So, the survey could be right and Zune could, in fact, be very successful.” His whole piece is, as usual, baseless. And, we’ve already explained why, in the Zune vs. iPod bout, Apple cannot lose and Microsoft cannot win.
Related articles:
Microsoft Zune to be US-only, no firm plans to launch anywhere else globally – November 03, 2006
Five Microsoft Zune TV commercials – November 02, 2006
JupiterResearch: Apple’s iPod will dominate for foreseeable future; Microsoft’s Zune insignificant – October 25, 2006
Ellen DeGeneres Show gives away Microsoft Zunes, studio audience goes berserk – October 23, 2006
More Microsoft Zune myths explored – October 20, 2006
Five more Microsoft Zune myths – October 18, 2006
Microsoft Zune intensifies chaos in Apple iPod+iTunes also-ran market – October 16, 2006
Newsweek Q&A: Apple CEO Steve Jobs discusses iPod’s impact, Microsoft’s Zune, and more – October 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Ballmer: Zune device not money loser, wishes Apple’s 30GB iPod was $299 instead of $249 – October 11, 2006
Microsoft’s consumer electronics track record: long string of failures – October 11, 2006
MP3.com founder: ‘Zune will be an expensive failure for Microsoft because consumers aren’t stupid’ – October 06, 2006
Microsoft fails to secure key Zune domains – October 04, 2006
Microsoft rigs Zune with tricky pricing and proprietary money schemes – October 03, 2006
Why Microsoft’s Zune won’t kill Apple’s iPod – October 03, 2006
10 Apple iPod vs. Microsoft Zune myths – October 02, 2006
Analyst: Zune could lead to ‘civil war’ between Microsoft and Windows Media partners – September 29, 2006
Thurrott on Microsoft’s Zune: ‘The makings of a disaster, what the heck are these people thinking?’ – September 29, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune’s as good as dead on arrival – September 28, 2006
Microsoft sets 30GB Zune price at $249.99 – September 28, 2006
How Microsoft’s Zune can kill Apple’s iPod – September 21, 2006
Microsoft’s Zune insanity – September 21, 2006
The Microsoft Zune 1.0 dud – September 20, 2006
Microsoft’s underwhelming Zune a ‘viral DRM’ device – September 18, 2006
SanDisk teams with RealNetworks against new common foe: Microsoft Zune – September 18, 2006
Creative does Apple’s dirty work by immediately attacking Microsoft’s Zune – September 17, 2006
Motley Fool’s Jayson: Microsoft’s ‘just plain ugly’ Zune a meager offering, not an iPod killer – September 15, 2006
What’s in a name? ‘Zune’ a French-Canadian euphemism for penis or vagina – September 15, 2006
Crave at CNET: ‘Microsoft Zune, all the excitement that brown can bring’ – September 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Zune underwhelms – September 15, 2006
Enderle: Microsoft Zune ‘a design mistake’ – September 15, 2006
Microsoft hypocrisy exposed with Zune: What ever happened to ‘choice?’ – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune with fake scroll wheel ‘hardly an Apple iPod killer’ – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft Zune won’t spoil Apple’s biggest iPod Christmas ever – September 14, 2006
Microsoft unveils Zune 30GB player, Zune Marketplace; declines to disclose prices – September 14, 2006
Analyst: Microsoft’s Zune an ‘underwhelming’ repackaged Toshiba Gigabeat; no threat to Apple iPod – August 30, 2006
Microsoft confirms brick-like Zune to be made by Toshiba – August 25, 2006
Microsoft Zune is chunky brick made by Toshiba – August 25, 2006
Microsoft to spend hundreds of millions, several years on Zune trying to catch Apple iPod+iTunes – July 27, 2006
Zune: Apple cannot lose. Microsoft cannot win. – July 26, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: MSN Music stops selling music downloads – November 03, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: Japan’s Oricon bows out – November 01, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: Tower Records liquidated – October 09, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Dell’s ‘DJ Ditty’ flash-based MP3 player is dead – August 22, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Music Store’s play button: MyCokeMusic is dead – June 20, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: iRiver gives up on digital media player market – May 23, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Sony’s Walkman Bean is cooked – February 13, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Dell dumps ‘DJ’ hard-drive MP3 player line – February 04, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: iRiver pulling out of Europe? – February 01, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Thomson gives up on MP3 player, CE markets – December 12, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: BenQ withdraws from MP3 player markets – November 28, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Olympus halts production of portable digital music players – November 09, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Rio is dead – August 26, 2005
Apple’s iPod has blood on its Click Wheel: Virgin Electronics is dead – March 08, 2005
Apple’s iTunes Music Store has blood on its play button: BuyMusic.com is dead – March 28, 2004
Squirt me another tune baby–Why is it all brown? AAAARRGGHHH!
MW-city-rhymes with s—
Stupid is as stupid does and guess who has plenty of that
Enderle: proof of concept FUD
So, the zune could be successful… or it might not be. Brilliant. What a find most laughable is that a lot of these people hyping the zune up seem to think that the first version will wipe the floor with the iPod despite not being demonstrably better in any real way. What’s worse is that even if we accept for a second that the zune will be a success, you still have to accept that apple would then just have to bump up the specs of the iPod a bit, reduce the price or both and they’d pull ahead again. If they went one step further and radically improved the iPod with a proper video version of some sort then they’d pull out even further ahead. Unless the zune was this amazing wonder device (which, even at best, it is not), the iPod won’t just die out – Apple, users and many third party developers have too much invested in it.
Product Slogan –
Many happy RETURNS
Would kids be buying Scions if they cost the same as a Porsche?
I’m a total Mac addict, but if the Zune were Mac compatible, I’d seriously consider switching… However, I’m sure that Apple will advance the iPod to include the advantages of the Zune and more.
So, I’ll wait…but will be tempted in the meantime.
This guy represent what Berners-Lee is saying about the net: it could become a dangerous tool for the dissemination of misinformation and brainwashing.
Enderle is putting words into our mouths, who said ‘Apple loyalists are annoyed with Macbook shutdowns’.
The guy just skews, skews and skews, well beyond breaking point.
Wait until a zune virus goes gangbusters and we’ll see what people think of it then.
By February or March of 2007 I think we’ll be able to clearly separate opinion from fact in the Zune challenges iPod arena. I honestly don’t believe that MS will be the one to level the personal media player playing field, it will almost certainly be a brand new start up from somewhere.
Right now no one is manufacturing a truly new and innovative product, everybody just wants to beat Apple and that’s simply not good enough. Its pretty ridiculous when you step back and look at it.
If you want a real shot at really competing with the iPod you’re going to have to come up with something really new (as in never seen before as opposed to rehashing Apple’s ideas), really innovative, and something that oozes quality, but is still affordable.
In short, these are skills that MS has never had – period. How could they? They’ve never had any real competition, and now that they’ve got some, they are clueless.
If Apple comes out with a serious update to their iPod product line it will KILL the Zune. And you can go to the bank on that.
Seriously, this site should be called “Apple VS Microsoft… Fight!” and not MacDailyNews. Most news are MS bashing or some news against Microsoft.
Enderle is an idiot, but guys, don’t underestimate this. I don’t believe by any stretch of the imagination that MS will take over the music market, but that doesn’t mean they won’t make a dent. Zune is a piece of shit (hey, brown color – how apropo) but it will sell a lot initially. After all, they are spending zillions on marketing this electronic turd, and it will appeal to many, many idiots (like Enderle).
But then again, it’s appeal will be short-lived, because come MacWorld (or sooner) there will be an iPod that will blow away anything the Zune has to offer. So whatever initial buzz the Zune may generate will die quickly. Wait until all the bullshit people will be putting up with with Windows Visturd and people will come running to their neighborhood Apple Retail store.
One last thing – Enderle is the biggest F-head in the industry. He knows absolutely nothing about the business. I have been in this business 24 years, and although I am forced to work in the Windows world by the business marketplace, I can tell you beyound a shadow of a doubt Mac OS X is the finest, most elegant operatiing system in the world, and the iPod is the best MP3 player out there. Apple is continuing to innovate, and MS is continuing to copy Apple. This time around Apple will have the last laugh. Long term there will be penetration in the business world, and it is not a pipedream to think that Apple can topple MS someday. And this is spoken not by someone who is part of a so-called “Mac cult” – it’s from someone who sees it happening already.
The zune could be successful, and monkeys could fly out of my butt.
Has anyone seen the jukebox software and store that are supposed to support the Zune system? The iPod is not successfule soley on its hardware merits. iTunes and ITS blend with it for a total music/entertainment immersion. All I’ve seen so far from Zune is the hardware. Is their store open or music management software available for review?
In the original study, 58% of the respondents said that they were ” somewhat likely” or “extremely likely” to choose a Zune over an iPod for their next MP3 player. It didn’t reveal what the proportions of those two groups were, so the “extremely likely” could be a tiny handful. If it was me, I’d answer “somewhat likely” if I thought “looks interesting, if it turns out to be better than an iPod I’d probably get one”. There’s the rub: it has to turn out to be better, which we won’t find out until it’s been on the market for a while. But Enderle interprets that as “intend to buy a Zune rather than an iPod.” Not proven…
Actually, you can also make the Word of God say whatever you’d like. You could even build the case that it teaches that Hell is not a real place, that homosexuality is not a sin, that Jesus is not God, and that we won’t be held accountable for our actions. Even though the opposite is very clear throughout it’s pages.
Jesus even talked about it, in one sense, in the parable of the rich man and Lazarus. The bottom line was that the Word of God is enough to bring a man to faith and if the Word of God won’t do it, neither will witnessing miracles. Lazarus made the Word of God out to say whatever he wanted it to say, or ignored it altogether, and he ended up in Hell.
Are you a good person?
MS is asking people to make a political decision–not one based on empirical evidence which clearly demonstrates the superiority of iPod. In other words, MS is saying, “You buy this brown Zune because we hate iPod and so should you.”
WHO CARES? It is no money out of my pocket either way. Do you get a check from Steve every month?
Hmm, Scions are actually good cars. The xA has no sex appeal, but the xB (I don’t like the design) is popular (and handles very well), the tC is pretty darn cool.
The proper analogy might be the iPod is an Acura and the Zune is a Ford. Apologies to any Ford fans, the Fords are probably a better value than the Zune.
Wow, what a total ‘tard insult to the Scion, a vehicle that more than embodies the whole iPod ‘ethos’ if _any_ automobile design could. This guy is totally unworthy of breathing.
This guy is just looking for headlines and page hits. I can’t remember the last time I read something he wrote that that was worth the photons emitted from my screen.
I believe this article is deliberately misleading. The methodology they used HORRIBLY flawed. Let’s take it apart piece by piece, shall we?
They interviewed 1725 teenagers and adults.
Of that group of people, they threw out all of them who said they were not likely to buy an MP3 player in the next 12 months. If I were a loyal, satisfied ipod owner, I would be completely discounted from this survey. Furthermore, they give no indication of how many people actually made it to this point. It’s entirely possible that out of the initial 1725, only 200 were looking to buy a new mp3 player. Out of the remaining 1525, 1000 could have no interest in MP3 players at all, and the remaining 500 could be raving lunatic apple fanatics, for all we know.
Now, for the next step, they say 58% of the users they surveyed WHO ARE GOING TO BUY A NEW MP3 PLAYER IN THE NEXT YEAR currently own ipods. You see how sneaky this is? In the first step, they eliminated people who are happy with their current mp3 players, so this step generates this rather meaningless statistic.
The next step is even more of a non-sequitur. They state that 59% of the people who own other brand mp3 players say they are at least “somewhat likely” to buy a zune.
So what’s the REAL conclusion here? Let’s rephrase the results of their study more accurately:
1) 58% of the people in the market for a new mp3 player own an ipod. This statistic is useless as a measure of brand loyalty because we get no information about how many people who own ipods are satisfied. 58% of ipod owners are looking for a new mp3 player would be an interesting statistic. 58% of people looking for new mp3 players are ipod owners isn’t because of the issues of sample size and the lack of any data about satisfied customers.
2) 59% of the people in the market for a new mp3 player who bought something other than an ipod are at least “somewhat likely” to buy a zune. To simplify, if you bought an mp3 player and didn’t pick the ipod last time and are buying a new one you’re looking at offerings that aren’t the ipod (i.e. the zune). No duh?
Anyways, I’m not at all impressed by this survey, the methodology seems weak and I don’t think there’s really any useful information here.
(from a Slashdot post 11/3/2006)
MDN – wrong take.
And you are wrong on Zune. Everything I have seen and heard about the Zune looks good. It will sell very well – if Microsoft can get enough product out.
Microsoft isn´t the greatest software maker in the world, but all it´s hardware products are very good.
And wait until they start exploiting the synergy between the Xbox and Zune. All in all this looks like a winner for Microsoft and will slow iPod sales.
Apple is tooooooo slow to bring out new product.
MDN take is longer than the news item. Sheesh – take a chill pill MDN.
You are as big an idiot an Enderturd to get wrapped up in statistics.
Zune is going to surprise everyone.
Kids buy Scions because they can’t afford a Porsche. In this case, the Porsche and Scion COST THE SAME!! In fact, the Scion had to LOWER its price to meet the Porsche’s price.
Here’s a survey question for Enderle:
“If you were buying a new car, and you had to choose between a Porsche and a Scion, and the cost was the same, which would you choose?”
To Wally Wallet,
I am glad you like the Zune. I am sure it will play music. And I am told that it will play AAC files too. Interesting. Given that it cost the same as an iPod, though, I am not too sure how many new buyers will rush to buy it.
Actually, I got a chance to see a real Zune today. Walmart started carrying some for display, not available till the 14th. I looked at it several times and, well, . . I just don’t know. It just does not look — cool. It looks like a — a– box. 🙁 For the same price, and iTunes connections, I really think I would go with an iPod.
NOTE NOTE. Something to think about. —
The Zune starts selling in mid Nov. The Zune store will be on line then too, I think.??? But so what?
I think the real push will be when Vista ships for the public. I believe Vista will have Zune integration and software built in!!! I think that this will be the big push for Zune. A new buyer gets his computer and it advertised for a Zune. “Want great music, get a Zune. Works with this computer, built in!! ” The average user knows nothing and may very well go for it.
Trouble is, ——- No VIsta until Jan. sometime. PAST the Xmas season. !!!!! I think that will really put a dent in Zune sales after the Xmas season which tends to be a slow time for sales of new toys.
I just think Microsoft has hosed it again. THEY just do not know how to integrate things, software, marketing and timing. JMHO!!
N.
MDN – Why dont you just report the news and drop the comments. They are becoming tiresome. How old are you, 15?
Im a mac and iPod owner. The zune looks like a good device. A good device is a good device. Apple needs competition – it’ll benifit us all.
“That’s because Rob’s not smart enough to figure out that any survey can be manipulated or simply fouled up by asking the wrong questions, phrasing queries incorrectly, etc.”
And MDN should know, they are experts at manipulating data to show apple’s market share is bigger than it really is.
went to se borat last night, funny stuff; but one of the adverts before the movie was the zune park party clip. my friend that went with me commented that he thought it looked like a good mp3 player. i told him it was doa and explained how microsoft is limiting the formates that are able to play on it, zune only, won’t play “play for sure”, and how ms has pretty much shot their partners in the back on pfs. he agreed, that it was doa.
“After seeing the Zune offering, no one is more surprised than I am that the majority of potential buyers intend to buy a Zune rather than an iPod in the coming week.”
And that’s when I stopped reading.
RMN
58% of people don’t go into a shop blinkered by a mantra that any ipod is better than anything else.
When the punters can see the goods and then make a decision, that’s the time to ask if they would consider swapping their iPod for a zune.
This whole conversation is all well and good in intellectual terms, but a big problem with the whole plan still remains:
When I talk to the kidz, they say they want an iPod, that they are waiting for an ‘iPod phone’,and they’d love a MacBook and an AlienWare gaming rig.
None of them… NOT ONE, has heard of Zune.
Let me say that again…
NONE of them have heard of Zune.
They want iPods.
=)
MS’s marketing for this is so fatally flawed that they don’t even see it: They’re trying to paint iPod users as fashion-slaves and sheep, but they offer us the anti-fashion as an alternative. Which is exactly the same thing – making choices based on what others choose.
This-in-terms-of-that, not a product that stand on its own.
Zune is therefore nothing without an iPod to compare it against.
That is why you fail, young Jedi.
-c
MW: ‘eyes’ (rarely used in Redmond)
And Enderle could have a brain, but reports are still out on that…
Bozo
S.
Another poor MDN take.
For example,
MDN Take: Then he launches into a horrible car analogy. iPods are “Porsches?” Since when does “Porsche” dominate the automobile market as Apple dominates the portable media player market with iPod? Since when does a Porsche cost less than a Scion as iPod does vs. Zune?
– If you’re going to bother to comment on the article, you might as well at least get it right. When did Enderle say that the iPod market is like the Porsche market, or the cost similar to that of a Porsche? He didn’t.
“Apple’s designs may be Porsche”
If MDN is going to complain about the survey being manipulated, then perhaps they should not be so manipulative themselves.
I just can’t wait till M$ releases this fecking thing so everyone who thinks it will actually BE SOMETHING will be WRONG and everyone who knew what they were doing is RIGHT!
I gotta go to the men’s room and take a Enderle.
Zune complete interface walkthrough video
Want to know what it’s like to use a Zune?
http://www.engadget.com/2006/11/03/zune-complete-interface-walkthrough-video/
Zune complete interface walkthrough video
Want to know what it’s like to use a Zune?
http://www.engadget.com/2006/11/03/zune-complete-interface-walkthrough-video/
Zune complete interface walkthrough video
Want to know what it’s like to use a Zune?
http://www.engadget.com/2006/11/03/zune-complete-interface-walkthrough-video/
People are stupid, so I have no doubt that a good portion of iPod users (most of whom are clueless PC-users) will flock to another big name.
I doubt though, that a hands-on comparison will make the Zune come out ahead except with only the most dull of dullards. People will just try to use the wheel as if it’s an iPod and they will hate it. And they’ll hate the thickness.
But yeah, most iPod users,except for an intelligent minority, happen to also be clueless consumers that bought into Gateway, Dell, Compaq, HP for their computers. It stands to reason there is no Apple-loyalty or iPod-loyalty even.
But just how shitty can the iPod-ripoff-du-jour be and still be good enough for these fools? Time will tell.
My bet is iPod will reign supreme again this holiday season. And those that switch to Zune will come running back next year.
Besides, Zune will be canceled next summer anyway. To make way for the next iPod + iTunes killer, of course.
Doop, tommy,
Has either of you been using a Macintosh for more than 3 or 4 years?
If you had you would realize, maybe, that a large part of being a Mac user is, sadly, survival in a MS controlled world. And I use the word ‘controlled’ in a literal sense. Not too many other products used by the a consuming public, private or enterprise, have the impact that personal computing does, and right now we live in a world dominated and controlled by a software orthodoxy called Microsoft.
The news reported and discussed on MDN isn’t simply information, its evidence that someday we might have the freedom to unbiasedly choose what kind of computers and software we use, even in the work place. Its evidence that we are just as “normal” as people who use Windows, maybe more “normal” – certainly more human. And it reminds us that we don’t have to bow down to the millions of MS priests that are churned out of our institutions of higher learning, just because they’ve decided to give up their own freedom and turn over their collective intellects to one single entity – we don’t have to.
MS’s hold on the consuming public’s money and minds is just plain scary when you stop and think about it for just one small moment. It isn’t just competition, its breaking the binds that have shackled us for over 20 years. I personally look forward to living in a world where it will become regular, legal, competition, but that’s just not the world we live in today.
I hope the zune is just successful enough to make Apple have to make the iPod better and a little bit cheaper in cost. Competition is good and benefits us as consumers. Noone should monopolize and stagnate technology and the industry as Micro$oft has done for years.
I am still waiting for a $99 2 gig nano of any color I choose, and I think it will happen with the next nano update next year.
I would like to see the current video iPod priced at $199 on the low end. I think abunch more folks would then buy at that price.
Nowhere does it say that the ABI survey was done on the Microsoft campus.
It was. Where else would ABI get such skewed results?
Why dos MDN have an obsession with this Enderle guy? My God, MDN gives this guy more hits then he otherwise gets.
Everytime MDN writes abut this guy, to me it’s a who cares what he writes. But MDN just keeps legitimizing him. Get off it MDN.
Did anybody watch that interface walk through? Wow what a backwards way of thinking you click music and the first 2 choices aren’t songs they are more menus- It must take 10 to 15 clicks to get back to the main menu.
Think of all kids, from preteens to those in their early 20’s, as potential MP3 player buyers.
Now think of the subset of those kids that are anti-establishment and dress goth as the potential Zune buyers.
Microsoft had better hope that not many goth kids have already purchased a collection of DRM’d music.
Belkin Introduces New Accessories for Zune™
http://www.belkin.com/pressroom/releases/uploads/11_06_06ZuneAccessories.html
Enderle is having wet-dreams about Micro$oft again. Poor SOB.
Zune = iBrick
It’s worth keeping an eye on Amazon’s top seller list. The Zune is at #9. SanDisk has one at #3. The rest of the top 10 is all iPod.
While one could point out that the Zune isn’t available yet, the new Shuffle isn’t either and it’s at #4.
Also, there is only one model of Zune, while the “Nanos” break down into several models, each in the top list.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172630/ref=pd_ts_e_nav/104-3929951-7872717
Apple will gladly allow MS to get it wrong (WiFi and media) and then get it right with iPod 6G. No need to worry about Xmas 2006 iPod sales because Zune won’t generate enough buzz or sales fast enough. Plus, MS will be losing money on the device versus fat iPod profit margins.
So let it get a small, tenious foothold at a big loss, against the existing profitable product. Then totally obsolete it in January with better tech and far superior design (iPod 6G and iPhone variants).
I think everyone would opt for Porsche versus Scion if the price points were the same. Of course, we all know the Zune is more like an ugly brown Kia that squirts along at 45 mph in a 65 mph zone. The only people interest in switching are contrarians that don’t really like Apple–and wish they didn’t have to be in the mainstream. Let’s face it, iPod is the popular favorite. Some people just long to be different. Their loss.
MW: Running, as in MS is running to catch up
PS: I love the squirt jokes–it just doesn’t get old for me.
Emderle is a tool.
Burn another one down, Enderle.
Thanks Bill (fake name)
I started to watch the walkthrough, which froze at 2:28, which is fortunate because I had seen enough to almost lose my lunch. What a hideously busy interface! If ZUNE wasn’t already a euphemism for crap it zune would be. (sorry couldn’t resist!)
Success would be easy to identify if Microsoft would provide the number of sales required for success, until then success is ambiguous and debatable.
I watched the walk thru. AMAZING how for photos it doesn’t read the tags and orientate the photos. MS is clueless about details and users. PC people are a strange bunch.
is this Ederle guy on the MS payroll? One of those consultants or freelancers that get paid, but claim they’re independent. I truly believe a lot of PC writers are this. MS pays them off
Let’s see some actual sales numbers in a few months before we proclaim the Zune as any kind of success. If they can claim 10% market share over the holiday, then I’ll be highly impressed.
We’ll start to see on November 14th. Who cares about speculation.
Right, the Zune could be very successful and a 98-year-old great-grandmother could win the 100-yard dash at the next Summer Olympics. Nothing is impossible!
Well….IF we ever see one, then let’s see how well this also-ran sells.
As a marketer, it’s EASY to manipulate the answers to hear what you want to hear, all you need to do is load up the questions in the right order like this:
Do you ALWAYS follow the crowd in making buying decisions?
Would you consider the Microsoft Zune when you buy your next mp3 player?
It’s also different if a hot guy/girl is asking you this and if it’s a grumpy old man. Are you in a room with other people or at home online?
People also say a lot of things they have ZERO intention of actually doing – will you donate much more time to charity & the needy this year?
Will you pledge to excerise & eat heathier?
And do you think 10 minutes later, they are at the Cinnabon store?
If only he was a betting man… perhaps Zune will be successful, but I’d love to bet against it thank you. =)
Screw your customers & screw your partners…that’s the MS way
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6120272.stm
jbelkin:
“And do you think 10 minutes later, they are at the Cinnabon store?”
Not me. I wouldn’t waste ten minutes of my life taking a ridiculous ABI survey.
I’d be at the Cinnabon store chowing down on a delicious Cinnabon, the best cinnamon roll in the world.
The Zune player coming out soon is just the first device for what is to be a platform for different devices. No, the player isn’t going to unseat Apple’s iPod right out of the gate, but it’s just a start. I think the survey demonstrates that people are willing to give Zune the benefit of the doubt, or at least reserve judgement until they actually see it. . .which is more than anyone can say for the blind loyalists that run this site.
ABI is notorious forputting out surveys that are pure crap!
Take a look at their surveys from 3 years ago about how many WCDMA 3G subs there’d be by now…
ABI is full of CRAP and their previous ‘surveys’ and ‘reports’ prove it!
Who else is up for heading over the the Cinnabon? Reading the past few comments made me hungry!
Deal ‘Zune’:
It’s true, seems people are going to reserve judgement until they meet you in person. But let’s not get too excited about that day just yet.
When people find out how you really work, and they discover that your squirting has been mis-characterized by MS marketing, they might not like you as much as you hope. Once they find that your main feature is nearly useless almost all the time, they might return you to the store and get the Nano they really wanted in the first place.
Maybe. Maybe not.
But hey’ we’ll see in another week, won’t we? ^_^
You see, I realized something when my black Nano arrived a few weeks ago… the packaging, the presentation, the whole feel of the consumer experience – it didn’t feel like a piece of consumer electronics at all. There was no manual (or need for one) or big wasteful box with ad copy all over it. No marketing slogans or any appeal to my hipness.
It was just a simple device, and this is the genius part. Apple wants buying a music player to be exactly as complicated as buying a pair of sunglasses. You find one that looks kinda cool, that is useful and durable enough for the way you use it, and is, say, pink. Or in my case, sexy, sexy black.
This is what a music player for the masses *should* be.
But you, Mr. Zune, come with your own social engineering scheme that we’re being told is, if I may embellish, totally boss. It requires that I forget most things I know about human nature and believe in a world where person-to-person up-sell is fun and will make me popular. It depends on me believing that people on a city bus are going to have music that I’m interested in, *and* that this interest will cause me to actually talk to them.
I can’t help but think of iTunes at this point. Lots of people in my office use iTunes, and we all share our libraries on the network. It’s *very* cool. I can browse their music easily and listen to what I want any time. I can even use OurTunes to ****DELETED*CLASSIFIED*DELETED****.
But there is NOTHING personal about this exercise. I’m basically getting on a server and taking what I want. I don’t develop any kind of personal network with these people, they are for all practical purposes just folders on the server. And this experience is much more open and free of restrictions than yours, Mr. Zune.
So I wonder how your system will do, if a better system is already in place (albeit using a different hardware paradigm, but the idea is the same) and not creating the environment that you think it will.
Like I said, we’ll see. Good luck next week!!!
-c
MW: ‘century’ (of Microsoft? I give it 5 more years.)
Here’s my $.02…
Yes, the Zune will be moderately successful, though not a juggernaut like the iPod. MS will do this by using their, well, money – which is more than the iRivers and Creatives can even dream of. Yes, Zune will slightly hurt the iPod’s sales, but not crush it.
iPods will continue to grown, though not at the rate it has grown in the past couple of years. Apple must (and hopefully will) add an extra incentive to buy iPods. That is because the days of the iPod being the “cool, new gadget” are over. It’s obviously not new any longer and the fact that EVERYONE owns one may unravel it’s coolness. (One would imagine that the true video iPod will be coming alongside the iTV, so that users can wirelessly transfer video from one to the other. But that’s just speculation, Apple, so don’t sue me if I am correct.)
Just my thoughts.
How to read a poll:
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/readpoll.html