Forbes: iPod killers that didn’t

“Steve Jobs is not noted for his modesty. So five years ago it was easy to shrug off his boast that ‘listening to music will never be the same again’ when he introduced the iPod–a tiny hard drive with headphones that held up to 2,500 songs and sold for as much as $500,” Rachel Rosmarin writes for Forbes.

Rosmarin writes, “Thing is, Jobs was right on the money this time: 67 million units later, the iPod has indeed changed the way people listen to music. It has also changed much more: Apple Computers has transformed from a struggling PC-maker into the dominant force in consumer electronics. The music industry has been forced to overhaul its business model, while the television and movie industries are getting ready to do the same. And Jobs himself has upgraded his status from business leader to cultural icon.”

Rosmarin writes, “So you can’t blame competitors for trying to get in on the action. None has had much success so far, and several have died trying.”

Rosmarin writes, “But on Nov. 14, Apple’s winning game could begin to change, as Microsoft launches the highest profile MP3 player to hit the market since, well, the iPod. From a hardware perspective, Microsoft’s Zune is nothing special–just a repackaged Toshiba device with the ability to trade songs wirelessly. What’s different about the Zune is its potential to upset the digital audio player ecosystem with a new model that matches Apple’s: A closed network with its own store and new copyright management software. The last time Microsoft took a cue from Apple’s business, it ate up the PC industry.”

Full article here.
High hopes for the joke that is Zune. Microsoft has never matched anything from Apple. When Microsoft copied Apple (albeit upside-down and backwards) with Windows, it ate up the PC market because people weren’t knowledgeable enough to make the informed choice, not because it ever came close to the elegance and superiority of the Mac.

Related articles:
More Microsoft Zune myths explored – October 20, 2006
Five more Microsoft Zune myths – October 18, 2006
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Newsweek Q&A: Apple CEO Steve Jobs discusses iPod’s impact, Microsoft’s Zune, and more – October 15, 2006
Microsoft’s Ballmer: Zune device not money loser, wishes Apple’s 30GB iPod was $299 instead of $249 – October 11, 2006
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MP3.com founder: ‘Zune will be an expensive failure for Microsoft because consumers aren’t stupid’ – October 06, 2006
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More blood on Apple iTunes Store’s play button: Tower Records liquidated – October 09, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Dell’s ‘DJ Ditty’ flash-based MP3 player is dead – August 22, 2006
More blood on Apple iTunes Music Store’s play button: MyCokeMusic is dead – June 20, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: iRiver gives up on digital media player market – May 23, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Sony’s Walkman Bean is cooked – February 13, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Dell dumps ‘DJ’ hard-drive MP3 player line – February 04, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: iRiver pulling out of Europe? – February 01, 2006
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Thomson gives up on MP3 player, CE markets – December 12, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: BenQ withdraws from MP3 player markets – November 28, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Olympus halts production of portable digital music players – November 09, 2005
More blood on Apple iPod’s Click Wheel: Rio is dead – August 26, 2005
Apple’s iPod has blood on its Click Wheel: Virgin Electronics is dead – March 08, 2005
Apple’s iTunes Music Store has blood on its play button: BuyMusic.com is dead – March 28, 2004

28 Comments

  1. I was enjoying this article until I got to the bit about Zune. Forbes, which I used to think was a knowledgable publication, shows a shocking lack of understanding of what made the iPod a success. They go on to say that M$ Zune will be an iPod killer for no better reason than they were successful with selling OS for PC’s.

    I think I’ll have to start collecting these predictions so I can bring them back in 12 months and show how wrong these geniuses were. Fortunately, MDN already does that for us!

  2. Spark, very much so. If it was not for IBM already permeating the business and corporate everywhere and just letting Windows in, Bill Gates today would probably be thinking about its 403b plan and whether he could finally afford that dream beach cottage he always longed for.

  3. Rosmarin draws upon history when she says how Microsoft outsold Apple in the computer business, but chooses to ignore history when it comes to iPod killers.

    The simple fact is that there have been countless would-be iPod assassins and yet the iPod is healthier than ever.

    She even admits “From a hardware perspective, Microsoft’s Zune is nothing special” but goes on to suggest that Zune could still topple the iPod.

    You would think that somebody writing for Forbes might also be smart enough to work out that the really important issue is who makes money from MP3 players. We all know that Apple make millions from them and Microsoft are going to make a loss. How much profit have any of the other MP3 player manufacturers made from the business ?

    If she were a bit more insightful, she might have been able to work out that Zune does have the potential to be a killer, but to kill Microsoft. The company is already floundering on a number of fronts and is still losing money on every X-box it sells. How wise is it to pour money into another risky venture that will not make profits ?

  4. When Microsoft copied Apple (albeit upside-down and backwards) with Windows, it ate up the PC market because people weren’t knowledgeable enough to make the informed choice – MDN

    I’ve been a devoted Apple customer since the Apple ][ – and I’ve never heard of such a dramatic revision of history!

    Now pass the darn joint, willya?

  5. MDN Writes: Microsoft “ate up the PC market because people weren’t knowledgeable enough to make the informed choice, not because it ever came close to the elegance and superiority of the Mac.”

    Although I adore this site and usually agree with virtually everything written here, I must beg to differ. DOS ate up the business sector originally because “only toy computers used mice”. That, coupled with “no one was ever fired for buying IBM”, set the tone. Once IBM had the lions share of the market, Micro$oft was set.

    Later the arguement was “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” meaning that Apple was a closed hardware system- if you bought Apple and the company dies, you were screwed. If you bought Compaq and it died, you could still buy Gateway (or whatever) and use all your software and read all your files. This mindset prevailed for a LONG time (even though people missed the point that if Microsoft died they were also screwed, I guess this seemed less likely). People got “locked into” Windows and the associated software (remember, even if the hardware prices between Macs & PCs are the same, you still have to buy all new software if you switch- so it’s a LOT easier and cheaper to stay with the Devil you know, even if it means putting up with viruses, worms, spyware, adware and all the rest).

    I think the switch to the Intel processor has changed a lot, since now, even if Apple were to disappear (unimaginable, I know, but IT people think like this), you can still run Windows on your Apple box and survive.

    At some point, when Apple has 30-50% of the market share, people will start saying this again: can’t give Apple the monopoly Microsoft once had. They may or may not be right (monopolies are generally not a good thing for anyone but the monopolist, even if it is Apple- remember, Jobs won’t be there forever and the ’90’s showed us how important it to have the right person at the top). Still, I for one will be quite pleased to see Apple’s market sharet that high…

  6. It is not the same The Three Musketeers than Twenty Years After.

    Also, it is not the same PC market than cultural market. It is not a matter of just another wanabe, but that with iPod (not with an MP3 player) you are in, well, tune.

  7. Apple got it upthe provervial ass when they did not take Microshaft seriously enough inthe early years as Gates snealkily ripped off Apple’s ideas behind the GUI interface and exploited office for their new gui called Windoze. Gates spent money and hired the best lawyers. Apple used Dumb and Dumber, inc to deal with it.

    I am sure that error has haunted Steve ever since it happened. Does anyone here seriously thnk that Steve will ever underestimate Microsnot again? Get a dose of reality. The above article sucked and the writer is stupid. The Zune will dominate again but only that tiny bit of marketshare of people either too stupid to buy an iPod, or that hate Apple and would cut off their ears rather than listen to an iPod or in a more tragic sense, people who honestly cannot afford an iPod and yet want an mp3 player.

  8. While reading this article, I got senario playing in my head— of one of those siniser crime/thriller movies; you know the ones, where the evil crime lord sends his minions out to defeat the good guy, and one after another they go down and the good guy is barely touched; then the evil crime lord has to get off his duff and take care of business himself, but he has been out of the game for so long that he no longer has the moves, and he has run out of henchmen to throw away, so he gets creamed in the end. This senario was overlaid on an image of Microsoft. Hmm….

  9. “Don’t forget Mafia$oft’s strong-arm tactics. They kinda helped out the old market share, too.”

    And this time around, thanks to screwing all their “buddies” on PlayedForSure, gathering a strong front will be much more difficult to create and maintain.

  10. These articles are miopic in scope.

    They compare vaporeware to shipping product, which is a complete waste of digital ink.

    Once the Zune arrives, let us see what Apple ships soon thereafter, and then we can compare MicroSoft’s best with Apple’s best – which will not come close to being a contest.

    ~Steven

  11. WHY, oh, why is EVERY competing mp3 player automatically labeled an “iPod Killer”?

    If and when a true competitor comes around, THEN label it an iPod killer.

    Until then, they’re all merely competing products.

    MDN Magic Word: Is that CLEAR?

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