Shares of Apple Computer, Inc. (AAPL) are up in morning NASDAQ trading, cracking the $80 mark.
Share rose $1.55, or 1.94%, to $81.50 on heavy trading volume of 10,246,211 shares.
Apple’s 52-week high stands at $86.40, set on 01/12/2006.
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Almost time for a split…
Why would they need to split? Google hasn’t split and it’s way up there
Yes, I’ve been waiting for Apple to start moving again – which it is now.
I would expect a split before $90.00.
…or maybe just after.
$90
And the silence from the MDN financial wizards (“SELL SELL SELL,” “Stock Boy,” “Peterson,” et al.) is deafening.
As that great philosopher of the silver screen Bugs Bunny might intone . . . “What maroons!”
Dave, Apple splits it’s stock usually around 85-90. In the beginning of this year Apple was over-inflated at 85, after the flurry of a great Christmas. Now Apple is solid at 81, and will creep up to 90 in anticipation of another great Christmas. Yeah, I’d say a stock split is in the near future. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it roll post split to 60 after this Christmas. My 2 cents.
“usually splits”
such a lovely phrase
Exscuse my ignorance, but what is a stock split?
http://www.sec.gov/answers/stocksplit.htm
When the price of a share of stock gets too high for a normal person to buy round lots (100 shares), companies do a 2 to 1 split, doubling the amount of outstanding stock, and the stock price is cut in half. Usually you want to buy the stock right before the split because it usually goes up a couple of points soon after the split.
APPLE SHARES CRACK WITH GUSTO?
OK, am I the only one who first thought that Apple was sharing crack at $80 a bag (with gusto!) LOL
I don’t think Apple will split the stock until all the earnings have been restated with finality. Apple has in the past waited until the stock was trading in the 100s before deciding to split, too. Deciding when to split is largely arbitrary, as a split does not intrinsically change the value of the company on the market.
The AAPL breakout above $80 today may not be sustainable. The stock is actually riding on the strength of the broader market (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500).
AAPL itself is significantly overbought. Here’s the evidence:
1. The daily RSI(5) indicator is at 86 (anything over 70 is overbought)
2. AAPL is above its upper Bollinger Band, which is bearish – shares tend to snap back and close inside the Bollinger Bands.
3. The MACD line and MACD signal show a negative divergence with the stock price. This is almost always bearish – it shows the stock has gotten ahead of its moving averages, and stocks tend to snap back.
4. AAPL is approaching significant resistance ahead, between the $81 and $85 levels, with an intraday high of $86.40 (set on January 12, 2006).
5. Today’s volume as of 13:49 EDT is 19.0 million shares and will probably reach ~25 million shares by market close. The average volume is about 25.7 million shares, so at best today’s high will be set only at average volume. This is mildy bearish – you want new highs set on high volume, not so-so or average volume.
6. Today’s new highs have been set on declining volume, as compared to the 3 trading days after the earnings report.
7. The broader market (DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500) are all up significantly today, which helps raise AAPL. This isn’t bearish in and of itself, but if the broader markets correct (which is likely, after the long summer rally), AAPL will probably be brought down with them.
Conclusion: AAPL is trending up, but the breakout abover $80 may not be sustainable.
Momo,
Thanks for that little flashback to my Wall Street days, when I used to hear traders on the elevators talking about all manner of trivia that displayed no understanding whatsoever of the businesses whose shares they were trading.
Forget the ouija-board business with the charts. AAPL is heading through $120/share, because their earnings are growing like crazy, they’ve got a great set of products in the pipeline, and we’re about to hit the tipping point where MS loses throngs of customers due to the Vista let-down. (As in, “We waited six years for THAT?)
-jcr
John,
With your Wall Street background, I’m sure you’re aware of the difference between technical analysis and fundamental analysis. I was doing the former. You are doing the latter.
My prediction is that AAPL will not be able to sustain a rally about $80 until there is further clarity on the options investigations, and if that isn’t resolved soon, AAPL will in the short term head downards, probably to the low $70s or possibly high $60s.
For investors, those levels would make a terrific (re)entry point, especially if one agrees with the fundamental perspective that you provided, and if the options investigation is cleared up, and assuming that Steve Jobs isn’t indicted, he remains CEO, and he remains in good health.
For traders, the technical indicators are mostly short-term bearish, and scaling into a short position at current levels up to the $85 resistance would be a rewarding play with moderate risk, especially if the broader markets start to correct.
Best wishes.
Momo,
Thanks for the providing some unbiased insight. I’m planning to purchase more AAPL stock, but I too thought anything above $80 was a little high given the issues with the stock option grants. I think I wait atleast until mid-November to see if we see a more realistic price point for around $68~$74/ share.
I do believe we’ll see a significant jump in share price once the iphone, vpod and hopefully a more affordable entry-level laptop are introduced.
MoMo Trader said: “The AAPL breakout above $80 today may not be sustainable.”
As much as I love technical anal as the other guy (gee that doesn’t sound quite right), the historical data is missing the fact that Apple is on the cusp of historical changes in its business model and tremendous change in its space. The conditions are prime for seismic shifts. So hold on to your Bollingers!
Hi,
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Regards, Elmira
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