Analysts: Apple Mac market share to surge by end of 2006

“As impressive as the iPod has been for Apple, its success has yet to transfer to the company’s PC line, which remains a high-profile also-ran. In the last quarter, Apple’s U.S. market share dropped to 3.5% from 3.6% in the same period last year, according to research firm Gartner. Worldwide, Apple’s share data are even more depressing–going from 2.2% to 2.1%,” Rachel Rosmarin writes for Forbes. “And though Apple’s shipments increased 3.1% to 570,000 computers, according to Gartner, shipments for the rest of the industry grew 13.1% in that same period, driven in part by price cuts from struggling Dell. That has to be worrisome for Jobs and his company, who have long been banking on a halo effect from the iPod to boost computer sales. Apple is now throwing in a free iPod with sales of certain laptops.”

“Five years into the iPod era, it may be time to give up on the notion that the product lines are intertwined. ‘There’s no empirical evidence to suggest that iPods make people buy computers,’ says IDC research manager David Daoud. Apple’s newest hope is that its new line of ‘Mactels,’ built around Intel chips, will give it a boost. Only half of the new Intel units were available during the most recent quarter. But don’t expect sales to shoot up soon, says Samir Bhavnani, director of research at Current Analysis, who says the company’s market share could remain flat until the end of 2006,” Rosmarin writes. “But Bhavnani predicts that Apple will begin rebounding this fall. So does Daoud, who thinks the company’s share could shoot up to 5.5% by the end of the year.”

“Apple’s Intel deal will begin to pay off late this summer, these analysts predict, spurred by back-to-school purchases. A new line of Macbooks that sell for less than $1,100 should appeal to parents and the college-bound–especially now that these same computers can run Microsoft’s Windows via Apple’s BootCamp software,” Rosmarin writes. “And a new retail test with big box chain Best Buy in California could set Apple up to introduce its wares to a new clientele… Should Apple’s share grow by the end of the year, another PC maker’s will shrink. That’s likely to be Sony, says Bhavnani. Sony’s Vaio line appeals to the same design-conscious consumer who might choose a $2,800 souped-up Apple product like the MacBook Pro, which comes with a 2.16-gigahertz Intel Core Duo processor and a 120-gigabyte hard drive.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple threw quite the monkey wrench into the iPod Halo by plopping the Intel transition into the works. Obviously, some people bought Macs because they liked their iPods; they’ve told us so. Maybe the Halo effect takes longer than we’ve given it to markedly affect Mac share? We think the iPod Halo is one component of Apple’s appeal to new users; it helps sell Macs along with all of the other reasons to Get a Mac. The fact that Apple makes a nice portable digital media player, offers a nice jukebox application and has a nice online music service (iPod+iTunes+iTunes Store=iPod Halo Effect) is hardly the premier reason to choose a Macintosh.

The fact that Apple’s shipments increased during a major transition, with entire lines of PowerPC machines being considered “dead end” by some customers while Mac applications were and are still being rewritten for the new Intel-based Macs is astounding and bodes extremely well for Apple’s future Mac sales. Back in June 2005, when Steve Jobs announced the Intel transition, very few would have predicted that Apple’s Mac market share would have the chance to hit 5.5% U.S. market share by the end of this transition year. While we’re skeptical of Best Buy selling Macs (based upon past performance, if you can call it “performance”), we do agree that things don’t look good for Sony or anyone else who targets the “high-end” with OS-limited* PCs.

*Only Apple Macintosh personal computers can run the Mac OS X, Windows, and Linux operating systems and applications at native speeds.

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Related articles:
Analysts expect Apple’s new MacBook to drive market share gains in near future – May 17, 2006
Many believe Mac market share increases coming now that Apple Macs can run Windows applications – April 25, 2006
Apple ready to take back market share; may debut Windows virtualization in Mac OS X Leopard – April 21, 2006
Pre-Boot Camp report: Apple could double market share on Microsoft defections – April 13, 2006
Apple Mac primed for market share gains as consumer portable market grows – April 12, 2006
Analyst: Apple Boot Camp could be an opportunity for Mac market share gains – April 06, 2006
Apple’s ‘Boot Camp’ a watershed, could dramatically expand Mac market share – April 05, 2006
Dude, you got a Dell? What are you, stupid? Only Apple Macs run both Mac OS X and Windows! – April 05, 2006
Why buy a Dell when Apple’s Intel-based computers will run both Mac OS X and Windows? – June 08, 2005

64 Comments

  1. The product line is strong. That’s all we can ask for right now. Sales will increase, the trend strongly suggests it. If sales in past quarters have continued to rise, and this last quarter usually shows a really large slump in the after Chritsmas season, we are slated to ahve a really, really big summer and Christmas build-up.

    Exciting to see what happens– especially once WWDC comes in August. You know they’re going to be showing off the new chips, and with Leopard’s new features, it’s going to be a lot of fun.

  2. The reason for Apple not shipping more computers is the simple fact that people upgrade less often with Mac’s because they last longer and don’t get bogged down making you think you need a new computer because the one you have is slow. I wish apple would go below $50 so I could get it extremely cheap, and watch it go up a lot quickly when people realize that Apple is worth more and sells more computers than anyone expects. I’m excited to watch it grow, especially when Vista comes out and turns into a giant flop, followed by OS X 10.5 being miles ahead.

  3. Obviously when MDN was asking “why doesn’t Apple advertise?” was at the same time Apple already had planned this Intel transition and did not want to advertise until it had been (for the most part) completed.

    As you see from the “Get a Mac” section of Apple’s website. They only bother to show the Intel-based Macs. Even before they were discontinued, the iBook did not make an appearance on that section. Having no Intel-based consumer-level portable would have obviously hurt Apple’s market share growth.

  4. Yes, this fall/winter will be nice for Apple, once the intel switch is done and people start switching out their PPC Mac’s for Intel Mac’s. I am excited. Plus, who knows what new products Apple will come out with. iPhone, or tablet, or new iPod. That’s why I love Apple.

  5. mdn: “Apple threw quite the monkey wrench into the iPod Halo by plopping the Intel transition into the works”

    How did installing Intel chips in Macs cause the iPod Halo effect to not work?
    Are Intel chips a negative?

    Again, MDN, open mouth – insert foot.
    MDN is always the OS is the Mac, but now MDN is realizing the ipod halo effect ain´t working and Apple market share is actually dropping….along with its stock price (remember when it was at $85 MDN was rah-rah-rahing it to be soon at over $100. Apple stock is now sub-$60.)

    Imgaine how bad Apple share would be if Apple had not:
    – opened all the apple stores
    – gone with intel
    – no ipods

    And its mainly Apple people using Windows on their new macs, not windows people buying apples to run windows.

  6. “driven in part by price cuts from struggling Dell.”

    They may lose money on every computer they sell now, but they’ll make it up in volume! ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

  7. Does anyone remember me saying AAPL will touch $52.45 in order to bottom out, back 2 months ago when APPL was at $72/share.

    Well now AAPL is $60 and flirting with $58 and $59. and this comes as everyone is thinking it is a bargain and jumping onto it.

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