Analysts: Apple Mac market share to surge by end of 2006

“As impressive as the iPod has been for Apple, its success has yet to transfer to the company’s PC line, which remains a high-profile also-ran. In the last quarter, Apple’s U.S. market share dropped to 3.5% from 3.6% in the same period last year, according to research firm Gartner. Worldwide, Apple’s share data are even more depressing–going from 2.2% to 2.1%,” Rachel Rosmarin writes for Forbes. “And though Apple’s shipments increased 3.1% to 570,000 computers, according to Gartner, shipments for the rest of the industry grew 13.1% in that same period, driven in part by price cuts from struggling Dell. That has to be worrisome for Jobs and his company, who have long been banking on a halo effect from the iPod to boost computer sales. Apple is now throwing in a free iPod with sales of certain laptops.”

“Five years into the iPod era, it may be time to give up on the notion that the product lines are intertwined. ‘There’s no empirical evidence to suggest that iPods make people buy computers,’ says IDC research manager David Daoud. Apple’s newest hope is that its new line of ‘Mactels,’ built around Intel chips, will give it a boost. Only half of the new Intel units were available during the most recent quarter. But don’t expect sales to shoot up soon, says Samir Bhavnani, director of research at Current Analysis, who says the company’s market share could remain flat until the end of 2006,” Rosmarin writes. “But Bhavnani predicts that Apple will begin rebounding this fall. So does Daoud, who thinks the company’s share could shoot up to 5.5% by the end of the year.”

“Apple’s Intel deal will begin to pay off late this summer, these analysts predict, spurred by back-to-school purchases. A new line of Macbooks that sell for less than $1,100 should appeal to parents and the college-bound–especially now that these same computers can run Microsoft’s Windows via Apple’s BootCamp software,” Rosmarin writes. “And a new retail test with big box chain Best Buy in California could set Apple up to introduce its wares to a new clientele… Should Apple’s share grow by the end of the year, another PC maker’s will shrink. That’s likely to be Sony, says Bhavnani. Sony’s Vaio line appeals to the same design-conscious consumer who might choose a $2,800 souped-up Apple product like the MacBook Pro, which comes with a 2.16-gigahertz Intel Core Duo processor and a 120-gigabyte hard drive.”

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple threw quite the monkey wrench into the iPod Halo by plopping the Intel transition into the works. Obviously, some people bought Macs because they liked their iPods; they’ve told us so. Maybe the Halo effect takes longer than we’ve given it to markedly affect Mac share? We think the iPod Halo is one component of Apple’s appeal to new users; it helps sell Macs along with all of the other reasons to Get a Mac. The fact that Apple makes a nice portable digital media player, offers a nice jukebox application and has a nice online music service (iPod+iTunes+iTunes Store=iPod Halo Effect) is hardly the premier reason to choose a Macintosh.

The fact that Apple’s shipments increased during a major transition, with entire lines of PowerPC machines being considered “dead end” by some customers while Mac applications were and are still being rewritten for the new Intel-based Macs is astounding and bodes extremely well for Apple’s future Mac sales. Back in June 2005, when Steve Jobs announced the Intel transition, very few would have predicted that Apple’s Mac market share would have the chance to hit 5.5% U.S. market share by the end of this transition year. While we’re skeptical of Best Buy selling Macs (based upon past performance, if you can call it “performance”), we do agree that things don’t look good for Sony or anyone else who targets the “high-end” with OS-limited* PCs.

*Only Apple Macintosh personal computers can run the Mac OS X, Windows, and Linux operating systems and applications at native speeds.

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Related articles:
Analysts expect Apple’s new MacBook to drive market share gains in near future – May 17, 2006
Many believe Mac market share increases coming now that Apple Macs can run Windows applications – April 25, 2006
Apple ready to take back market share; may debut Windows virtualization in Mac OS X Leopard – April 21, 2006
Pre-Boot Camp report: Apple could double market share on Microsoft defections – April 13, 2006
Apple Mac primed for market share gains as consumer portable market grows – April 12, 2006
Analyst: Apple Boot Camp could be an opportunity for Mac market share gains – April 06, 2006
Apple’s ‘Boot Camp’ a watershed, could dramatically expand Mac market share – April 05, 2006
Dude, you got a Dell? What are you, stupid? Only Apple Macs run both Mac OS X and Windows! – April 05, 2006
Why buy a Dell when Apple’s Intel-based computers will run both Mac OS X and Windows? – June 08, 2005


  1. The product line is strong. That’s all we can ask for right now. Sales will increase, the trend strongly suggests it. If sales in past quarters have continued to rise, and this last quarter usually shows a really large slump in the after Chritsmas season, we are slated to ahve a really, really big summer and Christmas build-up.

    Exciting to see what happens– especially once WWDC comes in August. You know they’re going to be showing off the new chips, and with Leopard’s new features, it’s going to be a lot of fun.

  2. The reason for Apple not shipping more computers is the simple fact that people upgrade less often with Mac’s because they last longer and don’t get bogged down making you think you need a new computer because the one you have is slow. I wish apple would go below $50 so I could get it extremely cheap, and watch it go up a lot quickly when people realize that Apple is worth more and sells more computers than anyone expects. I’m excited to watch it grow, especially when Vista comes out and turns into a giant flop, followed by OS X 10.5 being miles ahead.

  3. Obviously when MDN was asking “why doesn’t Apple advertise?” was at the same time Apple already had planned this Intel transition and did not want to advertise until it had been (for the most part) completed.

    As you see from the “Get a Mac” section of Apple’s website. They only bother to show the Intel-based Macs. Even before they were discontinued, the iBook did not make an appearance on that section. Having no Intel-based consumer-level portable would have obviously hurt Apple’s market share growth.

  4. Yes, this fall/winter will be nice for Apple, once the intel switch is done and people start switching out their PPC Mac’s for Intel Mac’s. I am excited. Plus, who knows what new products Apple will come out with. iPhone, or tablet, or new iPod. That’s why I love Apple.

  5. mdn: “Apple threw quite the monkey wrench into the iPod Halo by plopping the Intel transition into the works”

    How did installing Intel chips in Macs cause the iPod Halo effect to not work?
    Are Intel chips a negative?

    Again, MDN, open mouth – insert foot.
    MDN is always the OS is the Mac, but now MDN is realizing the ipod halo effect ain´t working and Apple market share is actually dropping….along with its stock price (remember when it was at $85 MDN was rah-rah-rahing it to be soon at over $100. Apple stock is now sub-$60.)

    Imgaine how bad Apple share would be if Apple had not:
    – opened all the apple stores
    – gone with intel
    – no ipods

    And its mainly Apple people using Windows on their new macs, not windows people buying apples to run windows.

  6. “driven in part by price cuts from struggling Dell.”

    They may lose money on every computer they sell now, but they’ll make it up in volume! ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

  7. Does anyone remember me saying AAPL will touch $52.45 in order to bottom out, back 2 months ago when APPL was at $72/share.

    Well now AAPL is $60 and flirting with $58 and $59. and this comes as everyone is thinking it is a bargain and jumping onto it.

  8. Apple’s strategy is to continually change their systems so Mac users have to keep investing in new hardware. OS9 to OSX, PowerPC to Intel. What’s next?

    Without this strategy their marketshare would be 0.5%

  9. I agree with MDN’s take, although it may have been explained better. The trend over the past few years has been increased saled. The Intel transtion has seemingly caused a slight (but likely temporary) slump in sales as people hold out for the Intel computers come out. If you recall, many expected the slump to be hige (Osbourne effect), but it wasn’t. This bodes well for Apple’s future sales.

    MDN was right, but maybe shouldn’t assume everyone follows the news closely enough to think for themselves?

  10. If apple didn’t open stores, use intel, and had no ipod, 90% of Apple wouldn’t exist because that is their business. That is like saying Imagine how bad Microsoft would be without Office, or windows media player, or internet explorer. I do agree that MDN need’s to open mouth and insert foot over many things they have said in the past. Apple I believe is and has been ahead of it’s time. First company to remove floppy’s from the computers total. I think that Apple did the correct thing in switching to Intel during the so called halo effect. Why not doing something that will slow sales for a bit, at the same time something is increasing sales? The reasons, market share stays the same, until the thing slowing sales is through. When the Intel transition is over, there will be the halo effect, along with a “I want a Mac with intel, not PPC” effect.

  11. Apple will definitely gain market share if my experience is to go by. I have a 17MBP and have been really impressed by it and will certainly be purchasing a workstation when the clovertown class quad core processors are available.

    Life is sweet. The switch went better than I could have imagined.

  12. Real World,

    MDN did not insert foot into mouth. You did.

    MDN explained quite clearly why the Intel-transition slowed Mac sales growth: The fact that Apple’s shipments increased during a major transition, with entire lines of PowerPC machines being considered “dead end” by some customers while Mac applications were and are still being rewritten for the new Intel-based Macs is astounding and bodes extremely well for Apple’s future Mac sales.

    Learn to read and comprehend, then comment.

  13. Apples ‘switch’ campaign worked, it slowed down the decline a bit.
    Apples iPod halo effect is working, it’s slowing down the decline too.
    Their switch to intel and BootCamp will also add to the slowdown of attrition. Hopefully stop it!

    So please GET REAL! Apple is not about to “take off”, don’t expect 10% ever again. If Apple can stabilise at 3 or 4% then that’s fine by me.

    5% would be nirvana.

  14. Scott,

    I’m quite sure that the short bus riders of the world thank you for your retarded translation of the MacDailyNews Take.

    Your post makes little or no sense, but it sure was unnecessary.

  15. Switched,

    When I made the switch over a year ago, I was worried too, so I had two computers running, one Mac, one windows. After about 3 weeks I realized my windows computer would get booted up, then I wouldn’t touch it. I was doing everything on my Mac. It was great. Much easier than expected. Glad you’ve enjoyed it. I’m wanting to buy a new Mac as well, probably a MB, or maybe a MBP, I’m waiting to see what happens with the heat issues or to see if a new low powered intel chip makes it into one that allows it to actually be a “lap”top and not a notebook that has to sit on a desk.

  16. Well I’m glad I could represent the short bus. I am at work right now so I have to type fast and get distracted many times during the typing of the post, and I don’t review it. Sorry that I sound retarded, I apologize. It makes sense in my head; I just struggle to get it to sound right sometimes. I just think that the halo effect is working, but the intel transition is canceling it out, which is why apple’s market share is realativly flat. Again, so that I’m a redundent retard.

  17. People seem to forget that although the market share Apple has may look small, it only looks like that in comparison to every other company out there. If you compare them against individual manufacturers then they’re doing a lot better. Sure Dell may still dwarf them in that regard but Apple are vastly more profitable computer for computer.

    It’s only if you compare OS X to windows that they look rwally small, and even then it’s not as clear cut as that since Linux et al take up their fair share. Any anyway, Microsoft don’t sell computers so even if you were directly comparing the two OS’s and they were even the same price and they were 50-50 in terms of share then Apple would be in a vastly better position since they make on the hardware.

  18. Apple has been kicking ass for the last 5 years, or ever since Steve Jobs came back. Now they are CLEARLY superior to Microsoft. Their machines ROCK. Everything is set into place. the next 5 years are gonna be great for Apple. This is just the beginning.

  19. Halo worked on me. I was a proper M$ fanboy before my brother got a discount 15GB 3G iPod in summer ’04. I used it once and fell in love. By christmas I had my own 20GB 4G iPod. By April I’d bought an iBook.
    As of today, I’ve converted two people to Mac (one iMac G5; one iBook G4), converted about ten people to iPod, and just ordered a MacBook (9 days for delivery?!).
    And none of it would have happened if my brother hadn’t bought his discount 3G ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  20. Whooo! Hooo! Everything is going great for Apple I see no wrong.

    And yet market share is dropping…so is the stock.

    Everything is great, but it isn´t. Apple is hitting on all cylinders, Windows sucks, but yet Apple market share is going backwards. ???? How can that be???

    MDN quotes a guy saying market share will go from 3.5 to 5.5%.
    That is an increase of over 50%.
    Yeah, sure….
    Apple will be lucky to maintain what it has.

    (Tip: those fast new chips coming out are also going in Windows machines.)

  21. “Someone told me once
    that there’s a right and wrong,
    and that punishment
    would come to those
    who dare to cross the line.

    But it must not be true
    for j-o’s like you.
    Maybe it takes longer to catch a total a**hole.
    but I’m tired of waiting.
    Maybe it’s just bulls**t and I should play GOD,
    and shoot you myself.
    Because I’m tired of waiting. “

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