“Apple Computer[/org] could see slight downside to analysts’ fiscal third-quarter iPod unit estimates, according to a recent Piper Jaffray report. ‘While it is way too early to make a call on June quarter iPod results, we have analyzed the first month of NPD data (April) for the quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of around 8 million,’ wrote analyst Gene Munster. The Street is currently looking for 8.6 million iPods in the June quarter; Munster’s model anticipates 8.25 million,” Maya Roney reports for Forbes.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Note: Last quarter, Apple shipped 8,526,000 iPod units. In their year ago fiscal third-quarter, Apple shipped 6.155 million iPods.
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???? Slug, that makes no sense.
quote “Of course that is leveling off. The rate of growth is slowing for the when you compare year on year for each quarter. 25 % growth whiles still amazing is not comparable to the prevoius year on year growth.
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Leveling off means to remain flat in sales. Anyway you look at it 25% growth is not considered leveling off..
No matter what Apple does to the iPod, they won’t be seeing the 300-600% growth increases like they did in previous quarters, but that doesn’t mean sales are slowing.
When you are selling 1 million units per quarter of a product it’s much easier to grow 600% the following year, you sell 6 million units.. BUT when you’ve already sold 6 million units, another 600% growth would mean selling 36 million units… And no matter what innovations Apple brings to the iPod, there is not enough of a market to sell 36 million iPods per quarter..
market newbie. The article specificially said they were looking at NPD shipment data. Is that no information?
If you look at the sales trend of 14 million(seasonal boost), 8.5 million last quarter then predicted 8.25 million this quarter, that would qualify as levelling off if the trend continues.
It is possible to have grown 28% since last year and still be levelling off according to more recent trends.
So people understand, iPod sales have never ever shown negative growth quarter to quarter except for last quarter. If this prediction is true, it will now be two quarters in a row of negative growth in ipod sales.
Consider the following growth rates quarter to quarter:
118.2%
10.1%
6.6%
134.4%
127.2%
16.0%
15.9%
4.8%
117.7%
-39.3%
-3.2%
If you want to compare with the same quarter of the previous year consider the following growth rates:
156%
175%
468%
518%
205%
41%
164%
39%
28%
At best, using the year on year numbers you can say growth is slowing significantly from it’s red hot rates of previous years. At worst, looking at the monthy to month numbers, if the trend continues, sales are sliding.
I should note that the last number in those series is not an actual value but is using the 8.25m estimate.