Apple could miss third quarter iPod shipment expectations

“Apple Computer[/org] could see slight downside to analysts’ fiscal third-quarter iPod unit estimates, according to a recent Piper Jaffray report. ‘While it is way too early to make a call on June quarter iPod results, we have analyzed the first month of NPD data (April) for the quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of around 8 million,’ wrote analyst Gene Munster. The Street is currently looking for 8.6 million iPods in the June quarter; Munster’s model anticipates 8.25 million,” Maya Roney reports for Forbes.

Full article here.

MacDailyNews Note: Last quarter, Apple shipped 8,526,000 iPod units. In their year ago fiscal third-quarter, Apple shipped 6.155 million iPods.

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29 Comments

  1. The sales had to plateu off at some point.

    ———

    Sales haven’t plateued off.. Even if they sell 8 million units, the year ago quarter was 6.25 million… That is still almost 25% year over year growth…

  2. I assume apple would drop prices to increase sales if necessary

    ———-

    When you ASSume, you make an ASS of U and ME.

    Prices will remain the same, new features will be added in next revision.

  3. Hey, Big Al –

    I’m with you! On the other hand, if at some point along this road Apple said “We expect to ship _____ iPods this quarter” and then they don’t, that’s certainly worthy of “missing the mark” that Apple set themselves.

    But when an analyst sets “the mark” by his fuzzy crystal ball with no hard data but past performance, that’s just laughable.

  4. Apple are waiting quite a lot time before refreshing the iPod range. I wonder if they are hoping to wait till August to milk the current offerings as long as possible.

    Obviously they have huge improvements for the next generation, which will sell like hot cakes, but in the meantime the sales are clearly leveling off.

    —————–

    The Nanos were released in Sep, the iPods in October… 7-8 months in not “quite a lot of time” for a product and is not anywhere near “milking current offerings.

    Sales are not “clearly leveling-off.” 8 million units this quarter vs. 6.25 million units in the year ago quarter is 25% growth, which is extremely healthy, not leveling off. Growth rate is no longer in the 300% range because Apple are selling millions of these things per quarter now…

  5. I went to a birthday party Saturday night for a friend–whose wife and daughter gave him a brand new 60GB iPod. We have two 3rdGens in our household, so the birthday boy asked a couple of quick and easy usage questions . . . and then wondered why I didn’t have a new one like his. The answer was also quick and easy:

    WE’RE WAITING FOR THE NEW ONES!

    The pent-up demand for Apple’s next iPod (VPod?) is incredible, Ladies and Gents, I can assure you. Can’t wait for the release, and neither can my credit card!

  6. Quote
    Sales are not “clearly leveling-off.” 8 million units this quarter vs. 6.25 million units in the year ago quarter is 25% growth, which is extremely healthy, not leveling off. Growth rate is no longer in the 300% range because Apple are selling millions of these things per quarter now…

    Of course that is leveling off. The rate of growth is slowing for the when you compare year on year for each quarter. 25 % growth whiles still amazing is not comparable to the prevoius year on year growth.

    And as I pointed out earlier this is for a number of reasons – the primary one being the lack of new models driving yet another peak in demand.

    Now I don’t think that the growth will continue to slow down because Apple will come out with new versions that will stimulate further demand. Whether this be cheaper nanos, larger capacity iPod video and nanos or something totally amazing like the a true video pod.

    Last year Apple came out with a lot of new pods: shuffle, nano and video. Since then they’ve been taking a breather and whilst demand is superb, it has not resulted in the level of new custom as before. It is not suprising that without new products that sales are not growing as fast as before. Apple are not close to aturating the market yet and in any case they will generate new markets with their new products.

  7. quote “Of course that is leveling off. The rate of growth is slowing for the when you compare year on year for each quarter. 25 % growth whiles still amazing is not comparable to the prevoius year on year growth.

    —————-

    Leveling off means to remain flat in sales. Anyway you look at it 25% growth is not considered leveling off..

    No matter what Apple does to the iPod, they won’t be seeing the 300-600% growth increases like they did in previous quarters, but that doesn’t mean sales are slowing.

    When you are selling 1 million units per quarter of a product it’s much easier to grow 600% the following year, you sell 6 million units.. BUT when you’ve already sold 6 million units, another 600% growth would mean selling 36 million units… And no matter what innovations Apple brings to the iPod, there is not enough of a market to sell 36 million iPods per quarter..

  8. market newbie. The article specificially said they were looking at NPD shipment data. Is that no information?

    If you look at the sales trend of 14 million(seasonal boost), 8.5 million last quarter then predicted 8.25 million this quarter, that would qualify as levelling off if the trend continues.

    It is possible to have grown 28% since last year and still be levelling off according to more recent trends.

    So people understand, iPod sales have never ever shown negative growth quarter to quarter except for last quarter. If this prediction is true, it will now be two quarters in a row of negative growth in ipod sales.

    Consider the following growth rates quarter to quarter:

    118.2%
    10.1%
    6.6%
    134.4%
    127.2%
    16.0%
    15.9%
    4.8%
    117.7%
    -39.3%
    -3.2%

    If you want to compare with the same quarter of the previous year consider the following growth rates:

    156%
    175%
    468%
    518%
    205%
    41%
    164%
    39%
    28%

    At best, using the year on year numbers you can say growth is slowing significantly from it’s red hot rates of previous years. At worst, looking at the monthy to month numbers, if the trend continues, sales are sliding.

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