“I don’t think Microsoft will ship another Operating System after Vista launches. I believe that a combination of technical difficulties and changing markets will prevent it from creating a product that is relevant in the market. Consider this, if the latest shipping dates are to be believed, it will have taken Microsoft over six years to get Windows Vista out the door and to its consumers. And based on past events, it is safe to assume that Vista will require at least one service pack before it is truly ready for use. Of course, factoring in the normal Microsoft delays for producing patches, such a comprehensive service pack will probably take another year before it can be released to users. That would mean that it will have taken Microsoft 7+ years to make a usable operating system,” James R. Stoup writes for Apple Matters. “Now consider how long it could take Microsoft to produce Vista’s successor.”
“With Google threatening to release a web-based OS, and Apple potentially using virtualization to run all Windows applications, Microsoft might find that by the time it can cobble something together, it no longer has a market interested in its product,” Stoup writes.
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Not as far-fetched as some might believe.
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This sounds just as naive as the speculation that Apple will quit work on future Mac OS.
We should be so lucky…
Yes Spark, but this is inline with MDN ethos.
“Windows Vista to be Microsoft’s last operating system?”
Well, one can only hope. But then, I also hope that “Miracle” is Celine Dion’s last album, but that doesn’t mean the bitch won’t keep caterwauling away just to spite me.
“I haven’t heard caterwauling like that since Jolson.” – Montgomery Burns, or at least that’s the way I remember the quote. Apologies to Simpsons nerds if I messed it up.
he’s right on. Microsoft probably won’t produce another OS but they will always be around… look a General Electric, they started off doing one thing and now they are doing a completely different thing. businesses with that much cash don’t fold under competition … they just find new ways of making money. Its ok Microsoft if you want to get out of the computer business you’re probably better sutied to be making cute toys anyway!
I’ve been speculating this for months. I think that Microsoft will need to perform a major house cleaning, a la Job’s return to Apple (focus on core assets).
They could do it, but asswipes like Ballmer would have to go. And no more vaporware.
And hey, don’t be offended because I called Celine Dion a bitch.
I didn’t mean to imply that she was mean or unpleasant, I meant “bitch” as in that’s what you call a female dog.
Hey hey, no deleting my posts.
I just wanted to apologize if I offended anyone unintentionally by calling Celine Dion a bitch.
I meant “bitch” in its other definition – a female dog.
I keed, I keed. Not.
“I didn’t mean to imply that she was mean or unpleasant, I meant “bitch” as in that’s what you call a female dog.”
That’s probably why you shouldn’t use the word that way in public discourse. Just a suggestion. Otherwise I enjoyed your post.
Stupid site, first posts disappear, then they reapper. The server thinks it’s Sigreid & Roy.
Bah. The second one was better anyway.
Microsoft will never die. Even if Vista is the final Microsoft OS and Office is given a merciful death — it became bloated long ago — I am sure that Microsoft has its hands in enough other ventures that it will always have money in the bank.
25 years from now, Microsoft may be the world’s largest textile manufacturer. At least that will give us all a use for the latest patches. :~)
Hey, thanks Sparky.
But seriously, it’s MDN – there’s no standards here, right?
At least I didn’t bring up politics.
blucaso: maybe next time you should use bee-otch” instead.
Stupid article. The only reason Vista is so late is because they’re trying to ensure backward compatibility going back to DOS and Windows 3.1 applications…
They won’t make that mistake next time. I expect M$ to put “legacy” Windows apps in a sandbox, to run within whatever new OS they decided on, like Apple did with Classic when it launched OS X.
This isn’t the end of M$ as an OS vendor though… dumb dumb dumb article.
blucaso,
Celine Dion is a very prominent Lesbian. Calling her a ‘Bitch’ instead of a ‘Butch’ will get the Lesbian Mafia on your ass.
Get your vowels right man.
Microsoft won’t get Vista out the door until sometime in 2008 (no way are they going to get that piece of crap fixed up in time for an ’07 release) and it’s going to be so slow and lackluster nobody is going to care. I don’t think they’ll stop development on their OS though, not until Bill & Steve breathe their last breaths.
Windows, like Celine Dion, Korn and dozen of others terrible “products” will live on and on and on, possibly forever, becuase there will never be a shortage of goofballs that line up to buy that stuff.
Heck, I don’t even want Windows to go away. Think about it. Do we really want millions of mouth-breathing, “These Colors Don’t Run” bumper-stickerin’, Windows 98 usin’ hicks crowding OUR Apple stores?
S
Why put out another OS for 7+ years when you can milk your user base for the same crap for 7+ years and spend nothing but the initial development cost. Sit back and ride that cash cow.
Innovate? Leave that to Apple and others… that is NOT the MS way! And when others innovations are too difficult to copy, just sit and milk your user base…. file for a bunch of patents that sound good at the time… let someone else actually MAKE the technology you patented… then sue them to keep your business alive. That is the new MS way! Many others are getting by one it… why should MS invent a new way to scam… they copy computer innovation… why not copy other people scam innovation too?
The Dude abides.
25 years from now . . . . .
Microsoft already is the largest textile manufacturer they’ve perfected that patch and they create them often
what this article is saying is that the market is rype for Apple to offer OSX to PC vendors.
shudder the possibilities…
Dumb story of the day award?
It’s time to start using the word “beleaguered” when referring to Microsoft.
But if this story was about Apple, this guy and his story would be as idiotic as MDN’s mentality. But since this story is about Microsoft then it isn’t that far-fetched.
Please God let it be True
I would prefer keeping Microsoft dominance with Windows running a larger market share if it keeps viruses and security threats off OSX….
Be that as it may unfold, it would behoove Mac users that Vista successful. I love the Mac OS but if a better product came along, I would consider it. Also, Apple needs competition to remain at the top of it’s game.
I don’t care who wins the OS war. I just want to have the best system.
The post-vista operating system will be a brand new operating system. It will not work with pre-xp software. I might not work with XP software at all. I hate to say it, but with vista so bloated in what it can do, it is just a transitional operating system.
Seriously though, who uses programs from 10+ years ago? I have machines with that operating system to run those programs.
After Vista, Microsoft wil drop the entire Windows codebase and start anew from scratch. In 5 years they’ll have a new and modern OS. They will still call it Windows, but it will be totally new.
The irony of this is that it will be a copycat strategy. Hilarious.
If you want to look at OSX in a different way… Technically, we have not had a new operating system since the debut of OSX. Each release is just a different “service pack”. Apple just markets the name differently, more efficent, and quicker to release.
Of course it’s going to be the last one. Mac OS X (with name changed, perhaps) will be the next, because Apple is going to sell out to Microsoft
Vista will probably not be the last MS OS.
But it COULD be. It’s very POSSIBLE. That’s a point worth taking to heart!
Now, I don’t think there will be just a service pack, there will be multiple new Vista versions. Vista ME or whatever. Baby steps, like Panther to Tiger.
But will there ever be another BIG new OS version from MS?
Maybe in 5 to 8 years. Maybe, just maybe… never.
MS will survive either way, they’ll just transition into Office and other software, plus keep selling the final version of Vista to businesses for a good long while.
Look at Apple’s Mac OS X Tiger banner again shown in http://macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/9308/. Looking at banner, one first assume Apple is taking crack at MS’ delayed OS. However, could it also mean “Introducing Longhorn (Vista). Mac OS X Tiger”
May be there is no Vista. May be Leopard is the replacement OS that will save MS. May be what Cringley talked about in his article is not Apple’s WinAPI, but it is MS WinAPI running on OSX. Come January, may be we will see Bill and Steve on same stage again (or was Bill on screen) to announce the common OS.
Well…considering Apple bought their last operating system and there hasn’t really been a new operating system since Mac OS X, one could make the same prediction about Apple. Why mess w/ perfection will be used to many times to erroneously describe Vista. MS just needs to use the Apple scheme.
Release an OS, then add a .1, .2 , .3 , .4 to the name every 12-16 months so you can charge for a service pack.
There will probably be something like windows core # and it will have a nifty identifier like wc#, which all the drones will rename to something with marketability. A simple set of the high level APIs at their most advanced AND most abstracted (ex kernel extension extensions/plug-ins aka tiger) once they get developers hooked on wc# (cocoa for windows) and give it a few unique features (full support for transparency etc), then everyone will want new wc# apps. Finally, with their third part base transitioned they will be able to release the new windows + classic emulation system. Dropping classic emulation five years later and creating a few peaks in hardware sales. Every year it will be buzzword compliant for hi-def, HDMI+HDCP, they’ll even have HGPRSHSCSEDGE for wireless.
You know that’s what will come out of MS at the very least, so why pretend vista is it?
Fat chance.
http://musobs.blogspot.com/
I may be a bitch, but I can buy and sell all you dinks a hundred times over.
<warble> My Cash Will Go On… </warble>
I would bet 5 years of my salary that they are ALREADY working on the next version. Thinking otherwise SERIOUSLY underestimates Microsfot. They’re not #1 because they’re stupid.
Im offended that MDN deleted the Celine Dion post. If ever any truer words were spoken on this forum it were those.
is there any reason why Vista couldn’t have virtualitation? It may dealay the launch a couple more years. But since MS is already in the habit of following Apple’s lead, they may as well do it.
MDN Magic sarcastic word: Ahead
MS Vista: ahead of its time, ahead of schedule.
Windows rules… I will crush Apple
I think this has reality.
MS will either license the Apple OS or a Linux variant and build with that. They have to.
Or, copy Google in some Web-based OS (which I don’t get, but it could be the NEXT BIG THING, from what I read…)
Spark-Eat It
“MS will either license the Apple OS or a Linux variant”
MS cannot license Linux variant (I doubt MS will use anything with GNU license), but they could use FreeBSD (as Apple has done for Mac OS X).
I use http://ajaxwrite.com/ to write a Word doc the other day on a computer that had a hosed MS Word. Worked great!
“Why put out another (product) for 7+ years when you can milk your user base for the same crap for 7+ years and spend nothing but the initial development cost. Sit back and ride that cash cow.
That’s an old move from the Detroit auto makers. It hasn’t exactly been good for their market share.
What if MS had decided Windows 3.1 was all they could do & gave up then? Where would MS be today?
Any company that lazily milks the cash cow deserves to die.
MW: soviet?!?
This article falsely assumes we’ll still be using “computers” by the time Microsoft could release a successor to Vista.
My great grandchildren are going to find this article very amusing when they do an iBrainscan on it.
Hi kids!
Microsoft doesn’t have to come up with a viable successor to Vista. We already know that, in all likelihood, Vista will not be a worthy successor to Windows XP, nor is Windows XP a worthy successor to whatever flavor of Windows it replaced. 95% of the personal computer market is already buying Microsoft’s sub-standard products. Why should they stop now? Is someone suggesting that Microsoft’s next offering needs to be excellent in order to keep their customers? HAH!!!
Maybe Microsoft should switch to actually making windows. Though when they crash someone could really get hurt, all that flying glass!
It’s always funny to go through some ‘Tech’-sites on the web – it’s really shocking how few is actually known about OS alternatives.
Just read through a post on tech crunch that stated that the ‘new’ Windows Live web storage system’s gonna be the ‘first on the planet’.
Hello … iTools? Hello … .mac? We were there before. Who cares? Yes, you’re right – no one.
They don’t even know a thing about the whole picture, that there’s something out there that’s not Windows.
This means, on the other side, that Microsoft could literally sell these people anything, it’s going to be bought, it’s thought of as ‘the greatest stuff’ and it was, of course, invented by Microsoft.
Sadly, these people don’t have a clue about the whole picture.
And it will gurantee a super survival of any stuff Microsoft places in the market. I mean, every other company would have been kicked out of the market if they couldn’t develop any major releases for 5+ years.
These guys have ressources, and this will make them survive.
“Windows Vista to be Microsoft’s last operating system?”
….first they have to have Vista.
And that sarcastic comment came not from me, but was chimed in by my significant other who is a PC user. (Well, half the time these days.)
Anyone know what the hell is with those links?
It looks like an advertisement comes up. Boy, it is annoying.
Vista last OS for MSFT?
I guess it all depends what new features and capabilities Apple evolves with their OS.
I mean, MSFT always waits for Apple to innovate before they respond with a lacklustre copy.
didn’t people talk about apple like this around 1996-7? didn’t apple have a huge problem with lack of focus? microsoft has taletned workers, but no focus. just like apple a decade ago.
microsoft could survive, and even make decent products, if the idiots screwing it all up (gates and ballmer, for starters) were ousted.
too bad MS never really had a steve jobs. otherwise, he could make a huge, dramatic comeback and get the company moving in the right direction.
I hope basic instinct 2 will be Sharon Stone’s last movie. I mean do we really need to see grandma Stone cross her legs in that sensual way?
This is a ridiculous discussion, as much as I would like it it to be true.
Microsoft is one of the richest companies, if not THE richest company, on the planet.
If they had to, they’d just buy some new startup’s beta OS. Let’s face it, Apple did it with Next, and MS is waaaaay richer than Apple could ever dream about.
Apple bought out Next for what to MS is small change – Gates wouldn’t even bend down to pick it up if he dropped it.
Just don’t anyone suggest that Apple will license OS X to PC manufacturers. Ain’t happening!
it’s really shocking how few is actually known about OS alternatives.
Someone once asked me, in all seriousness,
“Does your Mac have Windows XP?”
(This was before Boot Camp)
Microsoft is one of the richest companies, if not THE richest company, on the planet.
MS may be among the richest, but they are not among the smartest or best-ran.
If they had to, they’d just buy some new startup’s beta OS.
MS could BUY a new OS, buy they could never LAUNCH it.
If MS bought a new OS, right away they’d promise a dozen new dream features, put 10,000 people to work on it, and try to “merge” it into Windows. MS could never buy something that works & leave well enough alone.
Brad- “If they had to, they’d just buy some new startup’s beta OS. Let’s face it, Apple did it with Next, and MS is waaaaay richer than Apple could ever dream about.”
You’re right, they should buy one, (what they have sucks), but they won’t. MS is very rich, but is also very lazy and stupid. They will keep the three things that are killing them: The base OS and the lousy leadership of Gates and Balmer. It’s like the old Pogo cartoon “We have seen the enemy, and it is us!”
And I, for one, am glad they are so stupid. Each headline of failure and stupidity makes my day.
MS is very rich, but is also very lazy
I wouldn’t call MS lazy. Ask anyone who works there.
MS is an extremely hard working company. Unfortunately, with Longhorn/Vista at least, MS has been like the Keystone Kops, running in frantic circles. Their efforts have been very poorly applied.
I can’t imagine the demoralization of working a “death march”, knowing it’s all in vain.
The federal government, in close cooperation with Microsoft, will require GPS devices and software be installed on all PC’s. Therefore, Windows will function only on computers located in “unfriendly” nations.
MacMan “If you want to look at OSX in a different way… Technically, we have not had a new operating system since the debut of OSX. Each release is just a different “service pack”. Apple just markets the name differently, more efficent, and quicker to release.”
Not really. Panther to Tiger definitely counts as an equivalent jump from NT4 to Windows 2000. They rewrote the entire kernel and most of the APIs to better accomodate upcoming technology. That’s the reason so many things broke when 10.4.0 came out, and also the reason why we can now have quad-core Macs.