Thurrott: For any chance of success, Microsoft iPod competitor would have to be perfect

“I can confirm reports that Microsoft has been building potential iPod competitors in-house, and I’ve discussed this product with various people at the software giant since last summer. However, as we’ve discussed, it’s not clear that Microsoft should release such a device. To date, most of the iPod competitors from Microsoft’s partners have been lackluster, and certainly none of them match the coolness factor of Apple’s offerings. But here’s the problem: If Microsoft ships a product that is less interesting than the iPod, the company has effectively hammered the last nail into the coffin of its Windows Media technologies and erased any chance that its formats will succeed in the future. In other words, the Microsoft iPod competitor would have to be perfect. To date, Microsoft has been shopping its work around to partners, in a bid to give them ideas about how they might better compete, but it hasn’t yet decided to get in the game. My advice is to hold off,” Paul Thurrott writes for WinInfo.

More here.
Even perfection by Microsoft (good luck with that one) wouldn’t do it. It is too late. Google the terms “network effect,” “critical mass,” and “natural monopoly” for more info.

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Related articles:
Analyst: What battle for control of digital home? Apple has already won – January 27, 2006
Microsoft poised to create portable digital media device to rival Apple iPod – January 26, 2006
Steve Jobs’ suggestion of Microsoft-branded MP3 player a precursor to FairPlay licensing? – January 20, 2006

41 Comments

  1. Not-so-WizeGuy,

    Microsoft Windows is much, much farther along in its lifespan and it is not a “natural monopoly.” In fact, it’s dying; slowly now, but the rate of death is soon to increase. Before you criticize MDN, learn something about the subjects you’re criticizing first.

    MDN is correct.

  2. MDN NEVER said that iPod’s “monopoly” works the same as Microsoft’s. iPod will win by being a great product AND most popular.

    Windows was and is a poor product. The monopoly from DOS helped them, but Mac can beat a poor product–eventually. Years.

    MS can’t beat a great product unless they’ve got a monopoly to cheat with. In music, they don’t.

  3. Greetings, Professor Gates. The only winning move is not to play.

    Best and most appropriate pop culture reference I’ve seen in some time. And I don’t care how old that makes me appear.

    : )

  4. Please! Quit drinking the Kool-Aid, the dream is eventually going to end….

    Flashback to 1984

    Atari2600DailyNews Take: Even perfection by Nintendo (good luck with that one) wouldn’t do it. It is too late. GOPHER the terms “network effect,” “critical mass,” and “natural monopoly” for more info.

  5. First, it’s spelled “hypocrisy”; try using your built-in spell-checker. Second, it’s not hypocrisy. It may be inconsistency, but it’s definitely not hypocrisy. In addition to your spell-checker, use your built-in dictionary. But even as to inconsistency, I would disagree, because the reasons that the iPod hegemony might be different than the Windows hegemony are credible. But even so, I think MDN has been clear in saying that the superiority of the Mac platform has a chance to make inroads on the Windows near-monopoly. That is hardly inconsistent. And certainly not hypocritical.

  6. However, as we’ve discussed, it’s not clear that Microsoft should release such a device. To date, most of the iPod competitors from Microsoft’s partners have been lackluster, and certainly none of them match the coolness factor of Apple’s offerings

    Really? Cuz it sounds like every WMA player under the sun has the iPod beat on at least 14 different fronts..

    Oh wait.. no.. those WMA apologists are just bitter.

  7. Actually the popularity of the iPod and the trouble it’s competitors are having is a refutation of the adage “people will buy cheap crap rather than expensive quality”.

    The iPod would never have taken off, if that were the case.

    Apple delivered an entire music ecosystem: player, software and store, that works seamlessly and easily.

    Moreover, they did it in such a fashion that the parts aren’t ALL needed: You don’t NEED the ITMS to use an iPod, you don’t NEED an iPod to use the ITMS. iTunes is the glue in the middle, but you can use iTunes without either an iPod or the iTMS.

    But all together they work like no other combination on the market.

    No one else is even close to this level of integration, because no one else sees the success as a result of the whole thing, not the player, or the Store or the software. No one else is making the “whole widget”. Sony is trying, but failing.

    Everyone else is looking at the online music stores as “Tower Records versus

    That’s why no one else is doing as well as Apple.

    The only ones who can take Apple down, ultimately, are the record labels. If they withold their product, the iPod suddenly becomes vulnerable.

    But, so long as Apple has the commanding lead in online sales and music players that they do, the labels are stuck in a position of having to chew off their foot to get out of the ITMS trap.

  8. Thurrott still doesn’t get it. It’s not just an “iPod” it’s the whole thing : iTunes, the music/video store, etc. Apple supplies the whole integrated systems not a few parts of a non-system. The same goes for the “store” experiences. What other computer hardware or software company can have a store that covers everything as does Apple with the the whole Macintosh system at the Apple Stores.

    That’s the truth!

  9. Wrong Wizeguy,

    “Mac can beat a poor product–eventually”. You do realize it’s been 22 years, right? They only have a 4% share in all that time. That’s an awful long ramp-up, don’t you think?

    Harvard,

    I’m not a PhD like you, but I am an MBA. And the statistics I’m familiar with don’t show that Windows is “In fact, dying”, nor suggest even that it is on a downside path. While you do hear of the odd school district switching to Mac, you most often hear of them staying Windows, or switching Mac to Windows. You can’t even pretend that Windows is shrinking in the business environment. No matter how much Koolaide you’ve had. You probably won’t see a mass migration to VISTA on the business side for several years out, they’ve just finally went XP, but you certainly won’t see a mass switch to Mac either. To say so is silly.

    Apple and all the flavors of Linux will fight over the remaining tiny market share on the OS front for some time to come. Just like Napster and all the others will fight for the 20% share in music that is left over. This will be the way it is unless some catastrophic market event occurs, and I don’t mean the release of leopard. I mean the government breaking up MS etc. Even if Apple wins in the living room you are talking about years from now and that doesn’t diminish the huge share that business will still have.

  10. Just because MS has created a few concepts in the lab doesn’t mean they plan on mfring them. They showed off a future PC with Longhorn on it a while back, and if you recall, it looked like an iMac, not the OS, but the desktop hardware. The hardware prototype was just to stimulate the PC mfrs, it wasn’t an actual product MS was planning to release. And so, I doubt Thurott’s seeing a few multimedia players at MS Central, indicates they are planning to compete with the iPod.

    Having said that, I do believe MS is planning to release a competitor to the PSP, and of course since it will play music, it will be called an iPod-killer, but actually it’s a PSP competitor.

  11. If Microsoft’s portable audio-video player is a good as its operating systems Apple will have no competition.

    However, we will hear from Microsoft how wonderful their technology will be and the promise to release a commercial version in the next 2 to 7 years.

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