“I can confirm reports that Microsoft has been building potential iPod competitors in-house, and I’ve discussed this product with various people at the software giant since last summer. However, as we’ve discussed, it’s not clear that Microsoft should release such a device. To date, most of the iPod competitors from Microsoft’s partners have been lackluster, and certainly none of them match the coolness factor of Apple’s offerings. But here’s the problem: If Microsoft ships a product that is less interesting than the iPod, the company has effectively hammered the last nail into the coffin of its Windows Media technologies and erased any chance that its formats will succeed in the future. In other words, the Microsoft iPod competitor would have to be perfect. To date, Microsoft has been shopping its work around to partners, in a bid to give them ideas about how they might better compete, but it hasn’t yet decided to get in the game. My advice is to hold off,” Paul Thurrott writes for WinInfo.
More here.
Even perfection by Microsoft (good luck with that one) wouldn’t do it. It is too late. Google the terms “network effect,” “critical mass,” and “natural monopoly” for more info.
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Related articles:
Analyst: What battle for control of digital home? Apple has already won – January 27, 2006
Microsoft poised to create portable digital media device to rival Apple iPod – January 26, 2006
Steve Jobs’ suggestion of Microsoft-branded MP3 player a precursor to FairPlay licensing? – January 20, 2006
It will be. Perfect crap.
Well then I guess Apple has nothing to fear, unless the one factor that allows Windows to be so widespread comes into play. The fact that there are plenty of people out there that will take cheap crap over a quality product that has a higher price.
Because there are plenty of people that will settle for something thats just good enough. Having a POS with heaphones plugged in is better than having nothing at all.
I honestly don’t see how they could improve on the design of either the hardware or the software. Even if they could, Microsoft could NEVER get the “cool factor” that the iPod has, and let’s face it, that alone has sold a lot of iPods. When is the last time you heard MS referred to as hip or cool? Answer: Never, and you never will. They’d be smart to stay out of it. If they want to cash in on the digital music phenomenon, they can always start making products to go with the iPod, you know like cases, or speakers. That’s their only shot.
Microsoft has been shopping its work around to partners, in a bid to give them ideas about how they might better compete, but it hasn’t yet decided to get in the game.
Greetings, Professor Gates. The only winning move is not to play.
It will probably be vulnerable to viruses and spyware, trash your music and send you subliminal spam messages. “uppppgrrrraaadde tooooo visssstttttaaaaa”
Love the FUD wars.
Hey, MDN, isn’t it about time you showed your artist’s impression of the thing again? You know the one I mean.
And Melinda has been begging Bill to call it Bob, Jr. No? How about the iBob? XBob? Bill, are you listening to me?
They’re patient; they’ve got the money, the will, the OS marketshare. How oh how could they possibly fail? Oh wait, it’d be nice if we could also get it to…. That’s how. Microsoft just wouldn’t be able to resist tacking on one feature too many.
Read through the page and there is something interesting written about spyware:
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“You may recall that Microsoft purchased Giant Company Software in December 2003 and then issued a Beta 1 version of what was then called Windows AntiSpyware in January 2004. Since then, we’ve gotten spyware definition updates, but not much else. Well, Microsoft tells me that it’s been busy rearchitecting the product–the original was written in Visual Basic, I found out this week–and working to integrate it with Windows Vista.”
Wouldn’t it be better to write the OS so that spyware is harder to install on a user’s computer?
I thought they rewrote the entire OS, that’s why not much have happened in the last year?
Hah, perfect and Microsoft in the same sentence (without a “not” in between)–just too rich!
MW: ten, as in the iPod is a perfect 10, while whatever M$ produces never will be!
Whatever Microsoft comes up with, a lot of people will buy it because it comes from Microsoft. Look at Windows for example…it’s perfect crap and a great many people love it.
That said however, it’s have to be really great to beat Apple’s iPod.
You’ve seen it before and you’ll see it again..in fact it could be even worse than this..
Joshua: Greetings, Professor Gates. The only winning move is not to play.
How about a nice game of chess?
(War Games quotes…I really don’t know what to say about that..)
“(War Games quotes…I really don’t know what to say about that..)”
It snuck in through a back door. Oops. SHHHHHH ! ! !
Macaday: That picture is hysterical. But I think it’s missing a hundred or so more buttons?
I have a feeling that, when it comes to killing iPods, only Apple will be able to beat Apple.
Either they will screw up very badly and really piss off their customer base or they will come up with an ever greater device that replaces the iPod.
I hope M$hit does launch a branded player. We can finally put an end to this iPod killer myth. Once the little boys see the giant go down, they can finally back-off and we won’t have to waste our time with these silly articles about wanna-be’s. Also, let’s see those R&D dollars go down the drain as M$hit takes hit. C’mon, let’s drive that last nail and get this funeral over with.
MW: problems, as in there will be plenty.
Buy a MS Donkeyplayer and shop and the iByzantine music store – plays for sure some of the time!
DakRoland –
“(War Games quotes…I really don’t know what to say about that..)”
I hate to say it, babe, but you are really showing your age with that quote….
And I’m showing mine by acknowledging it!
Sounds great – will it work on a Mac?
LOL
iPod:
Perfect design, super-thin, super-easy, heavily advertised, cool in the eyes of many demographics, ubiquitous, most-popular, most-compatible, already on a roll, with the best jukebox and store software, and a huge ecosystem of accessories.
vs.
Imaginary Microsoft WMA player done right:
Perfect design, super-thin, super-easy, heavily advertised, cool only to Steve Balmer’s performance art groupies and certain X-Box fans, completely off the radar of everyone else, incompatible with Macs, Plays? I’m So Sure!, ticks off Microsoft’s other partners and makes them back away from WMA, no momentum built up, second-best jukebox app or worse, choice of a few terrible-to-mediocre stores, and no ecosystem of accessories. But it has FM radio circa 1700 built in for people who adore DJs and ads. iPod owners can only do that with their choice of accessories.
I wonder which would win?
” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />
Totally off subject, but I’d love to see a War Games sequel (I was the old fart who posted as Joshua above). Matthew Broderick’s career rebounded with The Producers and he needs a follow-up. “War Games 2” would be scarily relevant today — much more than “Ferris Bueller’s Second Day Off”!
“I’ve discussed this product with various people at the software giant since last summer”
Translation – I was collection my “consulting” fee with various people at the software giant since last summer
There is a book about marketing in the Silicon Valley. I forget the name of it, but it goes into detail about which markets to enter (definitely not where there resides an 800lb gorilla) and phases of a paradigm shift.
Apple entered a market (digital music players) where there was no clear leader, four years ago. Today, Apple is that 800lb gorilla.
Apple entered a market (digital music services) where there was no clear leader, three years ago. Today, Apple is that 800lb gorilla.
Four years ago, Apple introduced OSX into a market dominated by Windows. Apple moved rapidly to improve its initial release, while the 800lb gorilla slept. Fueled by cool designs and platform security (both missing in the products of the sleeping gorilla), Apple sparked interest, then sales of its products. Those sales were to “early adopters”, who hold the key to paradigm shifts. If they didn’t like the new product, it would never make it to the next phase of a paradigm shift, that of mass adoption.
Mass adoption is a strange phase in a paradigm shift. It doesn’t happen slowly. One day the herd sticks its toe in the water, and the next day the herd stampedes to the new paradigm.
I think 2006 will be the year that the herd sticks its toe in the water.
2007 will be the year that the herd stampedes to the new paradigm.
Another disappointing MDN Take!
Saying that the reason Microsoft won’t succeed is because the iPod already has a natural monopoly is exactly like saying that the Mac wont succeed because Windows has a natural monopoly.
Stop being such hypocrites MDN
The real reason Microsoft wont do well is because it has to please every other business it partners with as well as its customers. It’s impossible to please both so Microsoft can’t win.
Get it right, and stop so blindly ignorant to your own hypocracy.
Mr. Liggett: Alright, Lightman. Maybe you can tell us who first suggested the idea of reproduction without sex.
David Lightman: Um, your wife?
Not-so-WizeGuy,
Microsoft Windows is much, much farther along in its lifespan and it is not a “natural monopoly.” In fact, it’s dying; slowly now, but the rate of death is soon to increase. Before you criticize MDN, learn something about the subjects you’re criticizing first.
MDN is correct.
MDN NEVER said that iPod’s “monopoly” works the same as Microsoft’s. iPod will win by being a great product AND most popular.
Windows was and is a poor product. The monopoly from DOS helped them, but Mac can beat a poor product–eventually. Years.
MS can’t beat a great product unless they’ve got a monopoly to cheat with. In music, they don’t.
All the other 100+ buttons are on the back.
Oh, and 19 on the bottom and 11 on the left side.
43 Man Squamish, anyone?
Greetings, Professor Gates. The only winning move is not to play.
Best and most appropriate pop culture reference I’ve seen in some time. And I don’t care how old that makes me appear.
: )
Please! Quit drinking the Kool-Aid, the dream is eventually going to end….
Flashback to 1984
Atari2600DailyNews Take: Even perfection by Nintendo (good luck with that one) wouldn’t do it. It is too late. GOPHER the terms “network effect,” “critical mass,” and “natural monopoly” for more info.
43 Man Squamish, anyone?
Congratulations, Roberto! You are now officially “Hip in My Book”!
First, it’s spelled “hypocrisy”; try using your built-in spell-checker. Second, it’s not hypocrisy. It may be inconsistency, but it’s definitely not hypocrisy. In addition to your spell-checker, use your built-in dictionary. But even as to inconsistency, I would disagree, because the reasons that the iPod hegemony might be different than the Windows hegemony are credible. But even so, I think MDN has been clear in saying that the superiority of the Mac platform has a chance to make inroads on the Windows near-monopoly. That is hardly inconsistent. And certainly not hypocritical.
However, as we’ve discussed, it’s not clear that Microsoft should release such a device. To date, most of the iPod competitors from Microsoft’s partners have been lackluster, and certainly none of them match the coolness factor of Apple’s offerings
—
Really? Cuz it sounds like every WMA player under the sun has the iPod beat on at least 14 different fronts..
Oh wait.. no.. those WMA apologists are just bitter.
Actually the popularity of the iPod and the trouble it’s competitors are having is a refutation of the adage “people will buy cheap crap rather than expensive quality”.
The iPod would never have taken off, if that were the case.
Apple delivered an entire music ecosystem: player, software and store, that works seamlessly and easily.
Moreover, they did it in such a fashion that the parts aren’t ALL needed: You don’t NEED the ITMS to use an iPod, you don’t NEED an iPod to use the ITMS. iTunes is the glue in the middle, but you can use iTunes without either an iPod or the iTMS.
But all together they work like no other combination on the market.
No one else is even close to this level of integration, because no one else sees the success as a result of the whole thing, not the player, or the Store or the software. No one else is making the “whole widget”. Sony is trying, but failing.
Everyone else is looking at the online music stores as “Tower Records versus
That’s why no one else is doing as well as Apple.
The only ones who can take Apple down, ultimately, are the record labels. If they withold their product, the iPod suddenly becomes vulnerable.
But, so long as Apple has the commanding lead in online sales and music players that they do, the labels are stuck in a position of having to chew off their foot to get out of the ITMS trap.
Thurrott still doesn’t get it. It’s not just an “iPod” it’s the whole thing : iTunes, the music/video store, etc. Apple supplies the whole integrated systems not a few parts of a non-system. The same goes for the “store” experiences. What other computer hardware or software company can have a store that covers everything as does Apple with the the whole Macintosh system at the Apple Stores.
That’s the truth!
Wrong Wizeguy,
“Mac can beat a poor product–eventually”. You do realize it’s been 22 years, right? They only have a 4% share in all that time. That’s an awful long ramp-up, don’t you think?
Harvard,
I’m not a PhD like you, but I am an MBA. And the statistics I’m familiar with don’t show that Windows is “In fact, dying”, nor suggest even that it is on a downside path. While you do hear of the odd school district switching to Mac, you most often hear of them staying Windows, or switching Mac to Windows. You can’t even pretend that Windows is shrinking in the business environment. No matter how much Koolaide you’ve had. You probably won’t see a mass migration to VISTA on the business side for several years out, they’ve just finally went XP, but you certainly won’t see a mass switch to Mac either. To say so is silly.
Apple and all the flavors of Linux will fight over the remaining tiny market share on the OS front for some time to come. Just like Napster and all the others will fight for the 20% share in music that is left over. This will be the way it is unless some catastrophic market event occurs, and I don’t mean the release of leopard. I mean the government breaking up MS etc. Even if Apple wins in the living room you are talking about years from now and that doesn’t diminish the huge share that business will still have.
Just because MS has created a few concepts in the lab doesn’t mean they plan on mfring them. They showed off a future PC with Longhorn on it a while back, and if you recall, it looked like an iMac, not the OS, but the desktop hardware. The hardware prototype was just to stimulate the PC mfrs, it wasn’t an actual product MS was planning to release. And so, I doubt Thurott’s seeing a few multimedia players at MS Central, indicates they are planning to compete with the iPod.
Having said that, I do believe MS is planning to release a competitor to the PSP, and of course since it will play music, it will be called an iPod-killer, but actually it’s a PSP competitor.
If Microsoft’s portable audio-video player is a good as its operating systems Apple will have no competition.
However, we will hear from Microsoft how wonderful their technology will be and the promise to release a commercial version in the next 2 to 7 years.
43 Man Squamish, anyone?
Congratulations, Roberto! You are now officially “Hip in My Book”!
Thanks LordRobin.
me: http://www.windwardcomputer.com
43 Man Squamish:
http://www.collectmad.com/madcoversite/index-quiz_olympics.html