Deutsche Bank predicts Apple will sell 43 million iPods in 2006

Deutsche Bank has initiated coverage of Apple Computer (AAPL) with a “buy” rating and set a price target for Apple of $60, according to Forbes.com. Deutsche Bank predicts Apple will continue to gain share in both the digital music and PC markets. Apple will continue to drive share gains in the PC market due to the combination of a renewed enthusiasm for Apple’s brand, cutting-edge computer designs, and the superior user experience of Apple’s OS, according to Deutsche Bank. The firm also expects Apple to drive strong earnings and cash-flow growth as it capitalizes on the growth of the MP3 market over the next three to five years.

The firm is forecasting sales of 31 million iPod units in calendar 2005 and 43 million units in calendar 2006, “Due its strong product portfolio, market-share leadership, and the stickiness of iTunes, we believe Apple will continue to dominate this product category.”

Full article here.
43 million iPod units in 2006 is too conservative, in our opinion. We predict Apple will exceed that number. Think in excess of 50 million for 2006 and you’ll likely be closer to the actual number.

Related articles:
Analyst: Apple will sell 7.1 million iPods this quarter – August 26, 2005
Apple Computer could sell 21 million iPod shuffle units in 2005 – January 19, 2005
Smith Barney analyst expects Apple to sell 22 million ‘iPod flash’ units over next two years – December 10, 2004
Apple CFO says 3.7 million iPod units sold since introduction – July 15, 2004

18 Comments

  1. What is the basis for an MDN prediction of 50m units? Because you love Apple? Any substantive numbers driving that estimate?

    I love Apple too, but love for Apple =/= creating numbers out of thin air

    MDN word: since

  2. me,

    Deutsche Bank’s basis for their numbers is a conservative number based on past performance and fails (like every other analyst) to take the rapid growth of iPod ramp into account fully. This is because they must be conservative. iPodDN have no such limitations and can clearly look at the numbers and come up with a more accurate prediction.

    iPodDN’s numbers are sound, but Deutche Bank can’t take quite as big a risk as iPodDN. That is why predictions from financial and analyst firms are always too low.

    Look at the related articles iPodDN have provided – there’s your basis right there.

    I think Apple’s got a shot at 60m iPod units in 2006, myself.

  3. broker –

    What number are you talking about when you say “iPodDN’s numbers are sound”?

    I don’t see any growth rate formulas, trend projections, no basis AT ALL to support ANY estimate other than “if the ANALysts are saying 43M then we will say an even 50M”.

    You think Apple’s got a shot at 60M units? WHY???? You do realize that’s 17M (39%) more than the analysis are projecting? With talk like that, I’d like to know where you are getting your justification.

    MDN word: study

  4. The halo continues to shine and will only get brighter as more and more Windozer’s see the light. When Steve begins shipping Intel based machines that can serve as stepping stones from M$ OS to OS X, watch Apple’s market share rise.
    more iPods mean more macs.
    (thank you captian obvious!)

    I’m just happy that Apple’s stock dipped a little bit this morning… gave me a chance to get a few more shares!

    MW = serious – the kind of trouble M$ is in.

  5. There is nothing wrong with MDN doing exactly what the analysts do: they put the sum of their experience into making a judgment on future sales numbers. As Apple watchers over the last 7 or 8 years MDN are as qualified to make a stab at 2006 iPod units as anyone.

    And, just look at all the low-side predictions from the analysts over the last few years. Often they have been WAY OUT.

    Don’t stake your house on the MDN view though….or on the view of the experts!

    Oh, and by the way you never know what might be round the corner that might take the market by storm.. http://www.gbax.com/indexgp2x.html

    Whatever..Go Apple!

  6. And I suppose it should also be said that the analysts once they have their number, dress it up in all kinds of ratios and statistical “analysis” to demonstrate how scientific it is. Ho ho.

    Becoming more cynical the older I get…!

  7. Broker,

    A lot of people have lost a lot of money based on the “conservative” estimates from analysts like Jack Grubman and Henry Blodget. Yes, they really look out for investors interests, don’t they.

    Don’t believe s**t a broker or analyst tells you. They are only out for their cut.

    Do your own research (and if you want to make money, keep it to yourself)

  8. I have to say MDN is totally wrong on this one.

    Analysts may make dumb calls most of the time, but considering that the consensus estimate for iPods sold in 2005 is 23-25 million, boosting that number up to 43 million is a gutsy call from Deutch.

    The LAST thing I want as a AAPL stockholder is idiots going around yelling, “50 million iPods! 60 million iPods! 100 million iPods!”

    That no different (and just as irresponsible) as all the rumormongers who were talking about $99 4 GB iPod minis before they were introduced. And when Apple launched a 4GB iPod mini that was $249, you had all these same idiots going around saying, “Why isn’t the price $99? The iPod mini sucks, it should be $99, not $249!”

    My point? There’s a fine line between making sense and being senseless.

    Here’s the golden rule of stock investing. You only make money in stocks if the company beats expectations (and even then, profits are not guaranteed). I would much rather have everyone say, “Apple is going to sell 43 million” iPods while everyone secretly hope/knows/prays it will sell 50 million rather than analysts coming out with an “accurate” estimate of 50 million and Apple selling just 51 million, or heaven forbid, Apple selling “only” 50 million.

    MDN, stop handicapping Apple by promoting nonsense estimates! It’s worrisome enough that analysts are now getting on the Apple bandwagon in a big way and putting out official estimates that are rather stupendous when compared to the rest of the industry. Don’t make it harder by making people feel disappointed if Apple “only” sells 45 million iPods instead of 50 million.

    Stocks tank when they miss expectations – even when those expectations are so ridiculous they are more fantasy than something realistically achievable. 43 million iPods in 2006 would NOT be a failure by any stretch of the imagination. Stop making it seem like it would.

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