Analyst: Apple’s iTunes Music Store ‘downloads could reach 474 million in calendar 2005’

Piper Jaffray today said an update from Apple Computer regarding the company’s iTunes Music Store download totals show potential upside for Apple.

Piper Jaffray said that based on Apple’s iTunes Music Store download information released Thursday, stating that the company had passed the 200 million downloads milestone, the weekly iTunes run rate is about 5.5 million songs per week, up from 3.5 million to 4.0 million in the fiscal fourth quarter ended September.

Piper Jaffray raised its fiscal first-quarter iTunes download estimate to 68.5 million from 52.1 million and said that downloads could reach 474 million in calendar 2005, compared with the firm’s current estimate for 256 million.

The firm doesn’t expect a significant impact to earnings in calendar 2005 based on potential iTunes outperformance, “but continued growth could provide some earnings leverage as volumes become more significant.” Piper Jaffray maintained an “outperform” rating on Apple with a $100 price target.

Yesterday, The Register’s Tony Smith wrote, “Indulging in a little statistical speculation, we reckon ITMS should hit 500m songs next June, assuming its growth continues at that rate it has through the past 12 months, showing the almost exponential growth it’s shown so far. At this rate, the billion-songs mark will be reached in November/December 2005.”

Related MacDailyNews articles:
Apple’s iTunes Music Store downloads pass 200 million songs milestone (with chart) – December 16, 2004


  1. The current iPod base–the main customer pool for iTunes–is about 4 million, I think. (Correct me if I’m wrong). These folks bought about 50 million songs at iTunes over the past two months.

    If these customers continue to buy about that many songs, and are supplemented by another 4 million eager customers this Chirstmas,

    iTunes should have no problem hitting 500 million by the end of 2005, and might hit that target well before then.

  2. ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”shock” style=”border:0;” /> Here at Real, we’ve sold less than a million individual songs, proving the concept is a failure. Apple is doomed if they don’t license their DRM to us so their customers can buy the same same songs from us at the same price. It’s not fair for Apple to lock the customer into only buying digital songs from the iTunes Music Store. I have a petition online – please sign it if you would rather buy your songs from me. Together, we’ll force Apple into letting Real catch a ride on their gravy train.

    / Hello? Is this thing on? ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”shock” style=”border:0;” />

  3. “reach 474 million in calendar 2005, compared with the firm’s current estimate for 256 million.” ROTFLMAO

    I hope they raise their estimate, what brilliant mind said, hey Apple already sold 200 million before 2005, maybe we should re-esimate, they may sell more than 56 million next year

  4. Be careful on those iTunes sales based on installed iPod base.

    A lot of people own more than 1 unit. A lot of folks I know but the next gen and pass the older one onto thier kids. Kids, don’t purchase as many songs as adults.

  5. People are talking only about iPod owners, I wasn’t an iPod owner till I was sent one as a gift one week ago. Yet, I have purchased over 100 songs since the ITMS came out. None of them were purchased with an iPod in mind.

  6. Jayplus:

    My estimate is that 500 million might actually happen around 8th June next year, & here’s how.

    250 million – by 01/02/05
    300 million – 09/03/05
    350 million – 07/04/05
    400 million – 01/05/05
    450 million – 21/05/05
    500 million – 08/06/05

    All perfectly reasonable, given the rate of acceleration.

  7. This time next year and a billion songs under its belt it’ll be time for all the others to turn the lights out.

    Time for them all to eat Apples’ dust ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”smile” style=”border:0;” />

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