Morgan Stanley analyst: Apple Computer, Dell show best chances of gaining market share in 2005

“Morgan Stanley analyst Rebecca Runkle lowered her 2005 unit-shipment growth forecast to 9 percent from 11 percent over 2004. She cites better-than-expected performance in the PC market in 2004, as well as signs of a slowdown in the market late in the year,” Rex Crum reports for CBS MarketWatch.

“In a research note, Runkle said sales in the consumer market, as well as among small and medium-size businesses and the government, declined in second-half 2004. A ‘meaningful acceleration’ in the enterprise business sector would be needed for the overall PC market to post a year of double-digit growth in 2005,” Crum reports. “In Runkle’s view, Dell and Apple Computer show the best chances of gaining market share in 2005. Runkle said Dell remains in the best fundamental position for the market, while Apple should continue to benefit from the momentum of the iPod and its recent new iMac release.”

Full article here.


  1. but let’s not put too much stock in worldwide marketshare, people..

    the vast majority of windows users in asia aren’t paying for that stuff.. so apple isn’t likely penetrate the masses…

    with a million ipods sold per month.. that’s about 12 mil a year..

    a three year span.. conservative

    12mil + 18mil + 24 mil = 54 million..

    after 3 years.. how many of the original 12 mil will try out a mac.. then 18 mil the next year and 24 mil the year after that..

    The numbers say about 10%… so a million Mac sales.. then 1.5 mil, then 2 mil.. ahhh.. the mac will experience ipod-like growth..

    this is what the daring fireball article called the parlay effect…

    remember.. this is a very conservative.. a 50% increase year over year in ipod sales..

    i think the actual growth was like 900% last year, right? ” width=”19″ height=”19″ alt=”wink” style=”border:0;” />

  2. WIth OSX, Apple is at Everest base camp, just. As the expedition moves up there will be a growing momentum, a positive, spiralling vortex of recommendation, mutual back slapping and jump-on-the-bandwagon switching.

  3. If apple becomes something that takes shares from PC’s, you must realize it will be through eMacs and low-midrange iMacs, and even more so through iBooks.

    Apple can not only be high end.

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