“Fundamentally, the company has gone from being very undervalued to fairly valued in a very short period of time,” Felder writes. “(Note: Carl Icahn, who is a lot smarter than I am, says the company is worth $200 per share. I just don’t know how much of this is salesmanship/optimism and how much is cautious analysis.)”
“I know, I know, Apple is firing on all cylinders, and will probably continue to do so. The iPhone 6 is selling like hotcakes even before we get into the holiday shopping season. New products are in the pipeline, and Apple Pay will probably be huge for the company,” Felder writes. “But how much of this optimism is already baked into the current valuation? At 5x or 6x cash flow, almost none of this was priced in. At nearly twice that valuation today, I’m not so sure. Ultimately, at the current price, I no longer have a margin of safety. Should the company stumble, and I’m not saying it will, there’s no reason the stock couldn’t go back to the $80-$95 level (where I’d probably buy it back).”
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