“The CD Player reached 55% in seven years and the Boom Box about 62%. If measuring the period between 9% penetration and 90% the smartphone in the US will have a lifespan of about 9 years starting in 2008,” Dediu writes. “Before this period, the product was largely experimental and participating vendors mostly failed. After this period most products will be ‘commoditized’ with decreasing margins and increasing consolidation.”
“The rapidity of growth is all the more remarkable given the penetration is at the individual, not household level. The total user base is therefore over 270 million rather than the 115 million usually targeted by consumer technology, nearly 60% more purchases. This is also remarkable because the product has a shorter lifespan of use (two years) than is typical for other consumer technology products,” Dediu writes. “We are therefore now in the ‘Late Majority’ phase of the US market.”
Much more in the full article here.