May 25, 2012 - 05:30 PM EDT — AAPL: 562.29 (-3.03, -0.54%) | NASDAQ: 2837.53 (-1.85, -0.07%)

Apple stock price in advance of next-gen iPhone breaks the mold

Friday, September 30, 2011 · 2:02 pm · 18 Comments

“Wondering what’s going on with Apple’s (AAPL) share price with a big iPhone announcement just around corner?” Philip Elmer-DeWitt asks for Fortune.

“Andy Zaky has been tracking the trading patterns before and after Apple’s special events on his Bullish Cross blog (now behind a paywall) for several years,” P.E.D. reports. “He offers these observations (I quote): ‘The stock is usually up pretty big in the two weeks ahead of the event. In fact, in the previous 4 iPhone releases, the stock was up between 2.5% and 18.1%. For the iPhone 4, we saw a 3.73% rise over the two week period ahead of the introduction. This time, the stock is down rather dramatically. Almost $17.00 from where it was trading at last Tuesday (2-weeks before the keynote). So maybe that means this time Apple will rally?’”

Read more in the full article here.

Categories: News

Tags: aapl, Andy Zaky, Bullish Cross, finance, iPhone 4S, iPhone 5

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Comment Feed

18 Comments

Wasim Yaqoob

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 2:08 pm · Reply

Any rumour or announcement of iPhone 5 will already be priced into AAPL! Usually speculators jump onto the stock prior to major keynote announcements and dump afterwards.
Ballmer's left nut

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 2:12 pm · Reply

The market is panicking and pricing in the possibility that the announcement will involve an iPhone 4S rather than a 5. If indeed this turns out to be the case then you should run for the exits because the stock will take a beating as it will demonstrate in no small measure that Apple without Steve Jobs is not the same technology powerhouse with him in it.

The last time Steve went on extended medical leave Apple pulled off the 3GS stunt which even to me was a disappointing refresh no matter how the hype went. It wasn’t until the 4 was released that I felt confident enough with the maturation of the iPhone to actually buy one.
- Zuno the Clown
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 2:30 pm · Reply
  
  I dunno… The iPhone 3GS was great. The iPhone 4 only appears to be a marginal improvement over the 3GS. The important thing will be if Apple calls the new phone a 4 or 5, regardless of what’s under the hood.
  
  As long as they call it a 5 and can demonstrate come incremental improvement, it will be a winner.
cococanuck

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 2:37 pm · Reply

I’m sorry but this is all nonsense. It’s not just APPL that’s down. Everything is down. currently:
DOW -160.37 -1.44%
NASDAQ -42.86 -1.73%
S&P 500 -18.33 -1.58%

Everything’s screwy not just AAPL. Give them a break. One thing’s for sure, APPL didn’t cause this. The markets do what the hell they please. And as we surely know, Steve doesn’t really care about the stock market. There is at least one bright light to enjoy during these times: Apple products.
- 8^þ
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:11 pm · Reply
  
  Yes; you nailed it. The price is driven more more by autotrading in microsecond intervals, than by any intrinsic value the company has. So ignore it, and have a another plate of poutine.
- Derek Currie
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 5:31 pm · Reply
  
  For at the end of Friday, the S&P 500 went down 2.50%. This is an overall panic. As per usual, the drop in Apple’s price today (2.37%) is absurd. We know full well that the actual value is more like $450+. Such are the day trader tards. What can you do?
Arnold Ziffel

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 2:54 pm · Reply

Just a variation on stock price manipulation, if you ask me. Gotta keep that pump and dump machine humming along.
- DogGonetoo
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 3:10 pm · Reply
  
  I agree. The main thing is that aapl has reached a new high around 420. The new low is probably between 380 and 400.
  Aapl always does this. It goes up on a bender, reaches a new high and defines a new low.
  Look at it this way. Aapls new low has gone up from about 340 to 380. Thats a 15%increase on a few months and better than most stocks.
  - Ansel
    
    Friday, September 30, 2011 - 7:37 pm · Reply
    
    Strong support around $365-$367 was broken with Jobs announcement but stock quickly recovered …..
    
    If we have a melt down in the market, which is probably 70% chance look for Apple to break to the downside and the $365 support will fold and perhaps go to the $340-$345 range …..
    
    But we have several things working for Apple and that is stellar earnings coming and new products, and not just the iPhone 5 and it will be called iPhone 5 ….. but more new products like iOS 5 and who knows what else might be up their sleeve ……
    
    One can bet Jobs departure is well planed and Tim is going to make a BIG SPLASH an pump up the team and customers …..
Weekend

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 2:57 pm · Reply

I guess it’s the big guys,as usual, controlling the stock before product announcement. I don’t think enough people are worried about a 4S instead of a 5 iPhone delivery to affect the stock in any way. I’m worried about a 4S only but there just aren’t enough of us to move the stock price. I do believe that if they only offer a 4S or a marginal upgraded 4 iPhone you’d better be out of Apple because it will be a bloodbath. It seems that they are going to improve speed and camera for sure. They are pumping up the voice control aspect too. That’s great but I think it needs a new form factor to make it seem like a truly new phone rather than a upgraded 4. The market isn’t panicking and Apple is not down because the market is down. Steve Jobs has nothing to do with what’s going on. The stock is being manipulated. I hope that it is being controlled to allow buying now and a run up Monday otherwise it won’t be pretty.
kingmel

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 3:11 pm · Reply

AAPL is down because Amazon released the $199 Fire tablet along with a few other low-cost Kindle variants that are sure to sell well during the holidays.

Personally, I have no problem with Amazon’s tablet products, even if the Fire is yet another mini-iPad lookalike. Apple’s iPad has driven Amazon to improve their Kindle products and dramatically reduce their prices. As usual, however, Apple won’t get much love for it.

I do have a problem with the Silk browser, though. Not that I plan on buying a Fire but, if I did, I would never allow Amazon to hijack my web traffic. I especially do not approve of the HTTPS interference – I don’t want an Amazon proxy in the middle of an encrypted transmission in both directions.
- hanky
  
  Friday, September 30, 2011 - 10:02 pm · Reply
  
  UM…AMZN is down too (6.21)….so wheres the sense in this reasoning?
- Applesmack
  
  Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 2:12 am · Reply
  
  I don’t think the Fire hasn’t anything to do with Apple’s current price. As others have pointed out the market is way down, it’s end of the month trading and some manipulation.
MacRaven

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 3:30 pm · Reply

This stinks, but whatever…been there done that before. It’ll go back up.
bobo

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 8:39 pm · Reply

the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
eidjed3e

Friday, September 30, 2011 - 9:29 pm · Reply

You guys live in a pretty small world don’t you?

Have you guys not crawled out from the iRock lately and read the news about Europe?
- GM
  
  Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 10:39 am · Reply
  
  AAPL stock price has not gone lock step with the problems in Europe. AAPL is a contrarian equity at this time. It’s up sometimes on days when the Naz is down. It marches to the beat of a different drummer. Whatever the stock does Monday,Tuesday and Wednesday it won’t have anything to do with Europe.
BoughtAAPL@40

Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 10:34 am · Reply

Go chart AAPL against the rest of the market for the past month, or even the past quarter. Look at the trends. Two things should become abundantly clear, 1) AAPL is not immune to overall market moves, and 2) AAPL outperforms the market by a large margin.

Over a one month span
Nasdaq: -6.36%
Dow: -6.03%
MSFT: -6.42%
GOOG: -4.79%
AAPL: -0.91%

Pretty clear and obvious to me. AAPL is a great LONG stock. Is it down? Yes. But even in the downturn, it’s losing less than other investment vehicles. Beating the Market by 5+% is no mean feat.