The worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2% in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in their feature phones for smartphones with more advanced features. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Moreover, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.
“Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in the press release. “Last year’s high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010.”
To capture the strong consumer demand for smartphones, manufacturers have unleashed a steady stream of new models and features over the past two years. The battle for mind and market share has also resulted in stiff competition among the smartphone operating systems.
MacDailyNews Take: What about revenue share? š
“Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010,” said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team, in the press release. “For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users.”
Nokia’s recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. “Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences,” added Llamas. “The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”
Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 CAGR (listed alphabetically)
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, March 29, 2011
Source: IDC
MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed for future use.
“…based on the breeze blowing out of my ass.”
it’s same thing with windows vs mac. windows on more machines. ios only on one phone
Their Numbers are VERY suspect ……
How in the world would can one even figure what technology is going to be out …. OK ……
And then figure both CrackleBerry and Windoze WhatEver will have more or just under that of Apple, give me a break, buddy!
Geez, give me a break ….. IDC ……
Just a little more than year ago IDC and all other “analysts” thought that tablet market is going to few hundred thousand units per year until 2015.
So IDC’s prognosises are ignorant and clueless as ever.
prognoses. Just like analysis/analyses.
Not sure if I buy these numbers, but even if they prove to be accurate, 19% of the total smartphone market would be great for Apple. With their profit margin, it would be a huge win for them in the industry.
Ah, so Exxon, Nokia and Microsoft will top the stock market by 2015. ( smirk )
Time to sell all AAPL? š
And people keep forgetting that, this time, there is no price advantage to Android phones (or Windows phones). People who have cheap Android phones KNOW they have cheap Android phones.
And… I wish they’d stop counting Chinese Android variants (that can’t actually run Android software) as part of the worldwide market share.
I’m still mad this doesn’t get enough attention – the artificial inflation of “Android” numbers by counting incompatible variants as part of “Android”. Why aren’t there more people taking them to task for this blatant distortion? Or do they just not understand how truly incompatible these variants are?
I’m right there with you. Approx 33% or more in 2010. Probably 50% this year and 67% in 2012.
And none of them have Google services, are incomparable with Andriod Marketplace and most don’t even have Google Search!
Be careful when you interpret these market share numbers. IDC likes to count every Android phone together, but they only count iPhones in ther iOS numbers, not iPod touch or iPads. So they’re comparing one platform to one phone.
But to assume WP will have 20% some day, just because, is simply idiotic. They’re basing that on how many phones Nokia sells now, now how many WP’s it will actully be able to sell.
pure fabrication same as FBR capital press release today on iPad production.
We need to see some actual movement on the patent litigation case. When Apple sued HTC, HTC’s stock tanked. As time went by, analysts have all but forgotten that there is this huge sword dangling above HTC’s head. The damn thing needs to be resolved, one way or the other, as soon as possible. As it is, everyone seems to be happily ignoring it and predicting this significant Android growth.
As for the Nokia/Windows part, I seriously doubt it. Nothing is stopping RIM from growing their own smartphone platform, considering the massive brand recognition (and free advertising everywhere), yet they continue their steady decline. It is rather difficult to me to imagine Nokia and Microsoft gaining share just based on the brand name recognition. Those brands have long ago been devalued, and no longer represent coveted choice.
I agree, Predrag. We can be pretty sure that Apple will win, since Google’s patent portfolio is so weak and Apple’s is so strong. With that win, Apple will move on to a next target and work on disrupting Android development entirely.
Margins, margins, margins.
Well exactly, MDN says “What about revenue share?” Significant, yes, but profit share is even more in Apple’s favor. It’s safe to assume Apple will be able to stay in front of the others in quality and cost of manufacture, so everyone but Apple is looking at a profitless venture just to be in the game. Moreover, Android’s severe vulnerabilities on patents overhangs the future of that platform.
The worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2% in 2011
Not an even 50%???????
That was the first hint these SOBs have no clue what they are talking about, hiding by such faux precision.
The only advantage for WinPho would be enterprise because IT departments are used to the management software MS has for their devices. BTW,I’m not an IT guy nor am I making a judgement on the enterprise worthiness of iOS. Just saying I think IT depts would push for WinPho over iOS. Even though they repeatedly refer to consumer in the article, there is not an indication that the marketshare numbers are consumer only. I suspect enterprise is part of that equation. I suspect that enterprise will dominate WinPho’s marketshare numbers. Why does that matter? Those users, controlled by IT depts, will be less likely to buy Apps, which means less App revenue and less in-app advertising revenue.
Android and WinPho will also probably capture a lot of the “whatever phone is cheapest” market. I’m guessing that such consumers are also not a great demographic for app purchases and ad revenue.
Regardless, as long as Apple keeps in the the 15-20% marketshare. They just need to keep developers interested to stay current. The hardware on the top end will always be similar in specs and there is no reason Apple will suddenly fall drastically behind there, given their in house chip and battery work.
Anyone really think Windoze Phone will be around in 2015? No, didn’t think so.
Android may well have a greater market share but I couldn’t give a tinker’s toss what other people choose. I really don’t give a toss being a Mac user while the 85%-90% zombies out there use PeeCees.
The post PeeCee world has only just begun and it’s going to look very different in 2015. If those Apple figures are anything like correct it’ll mean there are a host of Apple post PeeCee devices out there cannibalising their own smartphones sales.
muaaaahahahah! LMAO. These guys need to get their heads out of their asses. Android is going to hell soon. Not too many geeks around to lose time playing with a fragmented OS and norman users don’t have the time to play anymore in order to BECOME a GEEK.
I love that IT departments dole out crap and expect people to do their jobs.. You shouldn’t have to fight technology it should help you..
Apple is selling the iPhone as fast as they can grow their distribution and manufacturing. The IDC numbers assume current distribution models projected into the future – but Nokia and Microsoft are currently losing marketshare, so why would things change when you put two has beens together?
Besides HTC, how’s that android working out as a business model for ya? IDC… you betcha!
@ChrissyOne
Though this has absolutely nothing to do with the topic….
as a fellow photographer, I like your photography… just thought I’d share that š
Thanks!
I especially like “Eric’s at Dusk.” the rest are darn good as well.
āLast yearās high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases.ā
Seriously? Seriously?!!! I guess it had nothing to do with the introduction of the iPhone 4.
IDC can’t even predict one year out and now they are predicting 5 years out? What did they predict a year ago before Nokia crumbled and WP7 fumbled?
so, let me get this straight… iOS will remain essentially flat, and perhaps loose share over the next 4-5 years? I mean, I know IDC has a slant, but that’s a pretty silly prediction.
Yup. By 2025, iOS share will be down to 10%. By 2075, it will be down to 7%. By 2115, it is expected that iOS will have a negligible 7%. In the year 2525, if phones are still alive, iOS may cry.
Ah yes, in the year 2525,
If Man is still aliveā¦
Thanks for the trip down memory lane, Abdullah!
IDC works for Microsoft.
So iOS will have only hold 19% of the smartphone market, despite Apple owning about 80% (or more) of the tablet market, and about – what? – 85% of the “hand-held media device” market? Even if this happens, which seems highly unlikely, Apple will still be selling many more apps and much more related content than all the various phone makers/content sellers combined. Developers will fall all over themselves to develop for iOS. The fragmented, insecure Android platform is in trouble. Google’s recent decision to develop Honeycomb while ignoring the OS version for phones and delaying it indefinitely has already pissed a lot of Android fans off.
If as these idiots assume that when WP7 steps into Symbian’s shoes that WP7 take over Symbian’s market share, it must follow that WP7 will also step into Symbian’s trending market share, which is down, way down. So, to say that WP7’s market share of 20.9% in 2015 will be identical to Symbian’s in 2011 is ASSinine. (misspelled on purpose – I know there are those of you who troll this site for misspellings and grammatical errors). WP7 lost market share from Windows Mobile. To expect it to somehow take off because it steps into Symbian’s shrinking shoes is ludicrosity (I know, not a real word. I was channeling Don King).
None of this matters anyway. In 2015, we’ll all be dead.
I’m not an analyst but how would you come up with Windows phone having a larger share. Apple has owned the market and Windows never has–on what basis would you expect them to surpass Apple–would it be Microsoft’s sterling success in the phone market to date or . . . would it be the success of the Zune or the Kin? Why would you cede the largest market share to the company that has historically had the least success in the phone space.
I don’t get it.
IDC and its parent company IDG are making news once again.
IDCs analysts generate the forecasts, whose outcomes are predicated on “informed” assumption, which are then handed off to IDG’s wags, i.e., Gruman, Reisinger, and Cringley X, Dvorak, et. al., who in turn will spin this every which way.
We all know IDGs leadership is biased against Apple for the bitter dust-up in 2002.
IDG predicted Steve Ballmer would leave Microsoft in 2011. Now why would he do that when his star is about to make its meteoric rise in the next couple of years, according to IDCs own numbers?
If Ballmer leaves Microsoft, his replacement could very well knife this baby (M$/Nokia relationship) in its crib.
Is it any wonder Microsoft has stumbled badly in the mobile space? They’re chained to the desktop and aren’t going to side step that meme overnight. Mobile computing is Microsoft’s hobby.
The next CEO of Microsoft could smash any notion of Microsoft taking on a major role in mobile computing. It’s one thing to take on the mantle of platform dominance and quite another to sustain it, especially if you aren’t leading, innovating, and more importantly, embracing accepted standards.
Microsoft is out of its league when it comes to the web/mobile meme. They were wrong about Scalable Vector Graphics and finally admitted as much when IE9 finally embraced basic SVG standards, as disclosed at SXSW.
For the last ten years Microsoft has held back web development by insisting the world embrace their VML standard. We are just now beginning to realize the promises held for a 2D web experience, when we should have been standing on the threshold of 3D!
The 3D web experience is possible with WebGL, a subset of OpenGL, and has been embraced by everyone except you-know-who. Gaaackk!
WebGL could finally bring 3D imaging to HTML5! Imagine, web pages with depth?! Instead of the usual scrolling up and down and back and forth (in the X, Y-axis), imagine being able to scroll in and out along the Z-axis? Do you know what promise that holds for gaming and commerce?
Microsoft sure does, that’s why they’ll probably come out shortly with yet another proprietary solution that will compete with open-standards, a product that is supported exclusively by DirectX 3D.
I believe Microsoft will do everything in its power to hinder the proliferation of WebGL, simply because its not in their financial interest. Google, Mozilla, Apple, WC3, Kronos are pursuing WebGL because it will enhance not only the user experience, but lay a foundation for a not-for-profit web experience.
I hope IDG is wrong about Ballmer. I hope he remains at the helm of the SS Microtanic.
The problem with predictions like this is they look at things in isolation rather than in general terms. Do you really think iPhone growth will be below market growth? Or, how about the influence of other iOS devices like the iPad for example. So, maybe smartphone market share will be lead by Android (I’m not convinced this is will be the future, but let’s just say it’s “so” for the sake of argument). What impact will there be on market share for iOS devices if you include all iOS handheld devices (iPad, iPod touch, and iPhone)? The implied fear of this article is that Apple will once again be faced with a lower market share in the smart phone market, therefore, it will lose developers, therefore, it will not have its current market clout, therefore…? Also, remember this market was created by Apple as was the current state of the tablet market too. Who’s to say that Apple won’t be where the puck is in 2014? I frankly, don’t see Google or Microsoft having that kind of market leadership ability with either platform.
The percentages imply a level of accuracy that is just impossible to predict. Very flawed.
It’s funny that IDC thinks Windows Phone 7 will move into the #2 spot based on phones that won’t even be released until 2012. They think they can gauge the future sales of a phone that’s a year away from release. They must be psychic. I’ve seen no indication that either consumers or businesses are intetrested in the many, many Windows Phone 7s already on the market. Why would yet another model (Nokia this time) change that?
Second, IDC isn’t even considering the enormous impact of the CDMA iPhone in the USA. All of my family members who are on Verizon have already switched to iPhones. And long before 2015, the iPhone will be on Sprint as well.
“By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”
Based on what data points? The thundering success of Zune? The extraordinary sales rates of Kin? The amazing market response to Windows Phone ’07? The string of hit smartphones from Nokia? The incredible buzz surrounding Nokia’s work on Meego?
There is absolutely no evidence that either Microsoft or Nokia has any clue what the customer wants in a mobile computing and communications device. Putting two clueless parties together does not make a genius. Or even a modest success. Generally, it leads to an expensive disaster.
besides all the intelligent comments from readers about IDC’s moronic predictions for example basing their predictions on phones that are not even released yet
we also know that:
WP7 was launched on 60 carriers in 30 countries and even with a 500 million ad budget sold only 2 million phones after weeks. that’s embarrassingly PITFUL. IP4 sold 1 million in 3 days in 5 countries. and interest in Wp7 like Zune is fading.
From THIS result saying that wp7 will be bigger than iPhone is deluded fantasy.
People aren’t going to buy Windows Phones just because Nokia is selling them. People will buy the phone they like and can afford, which means Android and Windows Phone have no advantage over the iPhone, and even a disadvantage at price, unless carriers do BOGO sales or other promotions.
Consumers aren’t tied to a phone platform like they may have been with Windows/Mac and had invested hundreds in software. If anything, they would be invested in the iOS platform and it’s apps.
I especially liked “Eric’s at Dusk.” Looks like my kind of joint.
Your other shots are impressive as well.
Hogwash. ICal this one MDN. This is one of the more ridiculous suppositions by idiot analysts I’ve read lately. I’ll bet the numbers are flipped iOS’ favor by then. Absolutely absurd.
If Apple loses market share to Android, it’s their own fault. Android grew because it took advantage of Apple’s poor business decisions. Apple should have abandoned carrier exclusives. By keeping them so long, it gave Android the time it needed to position itself as the “iPhone alternative”. I can’t tell you how many friends I have who were not going to join At&t under any circumstances. They simply got tired of waiting for Apple to go multi-carrier, so they settled for Android. Now it may be too late….it’s too bad. They could have dominated the smartphone market much like they dominate the PMP market and like they will dominate the tablet market.
Apple owns a measly 4% of the cell phone market and pulls in 50% of the total global cell phone profits!
Apple doesn’t care about you, or your friends, and never did. Apple couldn’t possibly appeal to everyone.
Apple is the alternative to cheap and plentiful.
People that high on drugs should stop making predictions. WTF do they have Carnac on staff. This pretty scary shit if I was an investor , that why I never trust these so call analyst. Thes are the same morons that created financial crisis.
I’m just wondering when this so called “blood bath” that MDN predicted would happen after Verizon got the iPhone is going to start? Now what? Is it going to be when the iPhone 5 is out? Or is it iOS 5? I’m waiting. Didn’t you iCal it?
The bloodbath was over before Apple signed up Verizon. The “bloodbath”, figuratively speaking, was about mind share, not market share. Surely you realize this?
If it was about market share, Apple would have sold a two-hundred-dollar phone, but that’s not their market. Instead they priced the phone high enough to weed out the coupon-clipping-cheetos-dusted-sausage-fingered-pork-belly-crowd and I think they succeeded.
Of Apple’s 4% market share, 40% have earned-incomes exceeding 100k. The remaining 60-percent comprise a group who has always been loyal to Apple and it’s products, appreciate a quality consumer experience, and perhaps made a few sacrifices to own an iPhone.
Verizon now provides consumers with an alternative carrier, but they’ll soon find out there’s very little difference between any of the carriers; they all suck eggs.
Once the iPhone reaches parity across all carriers, as opposed to CDMA vs GSM, the carriers will no longer be able to lie about their competitors. The iPhone will be the lowest common denominator, from which everything else will be compared; customer service, bandwidth, pricing, regulation and policy, etc.
When the iPhone behaves the same on all carriers, the consumer will finally be able to measure and compare the quality of a carrier’s product. That is empowerment!
Perhaps you’d have realized this, if you hadn’t been so busy looking for the Butcher’s Bill.
‘āAndroid is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010,ā said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDCās Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team, in the press release.’
Ramon Llama? Shouldn’t let dumb animals have important roles in your company, or you will produce cr@p like this report.
And to close with a Monty Python reference: “Cuidado! Llamas!”
As I posted at the source of this lunacy:
This article was apparently posted a few days too early.
APRIL FOOLS!
I’m having a hearty laugh at IDC…
This is from the same IDC that predicted Itanium sales like
Yeah right
Thee market prediction folks are so out of whack it’s amazing they still have jobs