IDC: By 2015, both Android and Windows Phone will beat Apple’s iOS in smartphone market share

The worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2% in 2011 as more consumers and enterprise users turn in their feature phones for smartphones with more advanced features. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010. Moreover, the smartphone market will grow more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market.

“Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in the press release. “Last year’s high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010.”

To capture the strong consumer demand for smartphones, manufacturers have unleashed a steady stream of new models and features over the past two years. The battle for mind and market share has also resulted in stiff competition among the smartphone operating systems.

MacDailyNews Take: What about revenue share? 😉

“Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010,” said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team, in the press release. “For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users.”

Nokia’s recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. “Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences,” added Llamas. “The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”

Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 CAGR (listed alphabetically)
ID Worldwide Smartphone OS 2011 and 2015
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, March 29, 2011

Source: IDC

MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed for future use.


    1. Their Numbers are VERY suspect ……

      How in the world would can one even figure what technology is going to be out …. OK ……

      And then figure both CrackleBerry and Windoze WhatEver will have more or just under that of Apple, give me a break, buddy!

      Geez, give me a break ….. IDC ……

  1. Just a little more than year ago IDC and all other “analysts” thought that tablet market is going to few hundred thousand units per year until 2015.

    So IDC’s prognosises are ignorant and clueless as ever.

  2. And people keep forgetting that, this time, there is no price advantage to Android phones (or Windows phones). People who have cheap Android phones KNOW they have cheap Android phones.

    And… I wish they’d stop counting Chinese Android variants (that can’t actually run Android software) as part of the worldwide market share.

    1. I’m still mad this doesn’t get enough attention – the artificial inflation of “Android” numbers by counting incompatible variants as part of “Android”. Why aren’t there more people taking them to task for this blatant distortion? Or do they just not understand how truly incompatible these variants are?

    2. I’m right there with you. Approx 33% or more in 2010. Probably 50% this year and 67% in 2012.

      And none of them have Google services, are incomparable with Andriod Marketplace and most don’t even have Google Search!

  3. Be careful when you interpret these market share numbers. IDC likes to count every Android phone together, but they only count iPhones in ther iOS numbers, not iPod touch or iPads. So they’re comparing one platform to one phone.
    But to assume WP will have 20% some day, just because, is simply idiotic. They’re basing that on how many phones Nokia sells now, now how many WP’s it will actully be able to sell.

  4. We need to see some actual movement on the patent litigation case. When Apple sued HTC, HTC’s stock tanked. As time went by, analysts have all but forgotten that there is this huge sword dangling above HTC’s head. The damn thing needs to be resolved, one way or the other, as soon as possible. As it is, everyone seems to be happily ignoring it and predicting this significant Android growth.

    As for the Nokia/Windows part, I seriously doubt it. Nothing is stopping RIM from growing their own smartphone platform, considering the massive brand recognition (and free advertising everywhere), yet they continue their steady decline. It is rather difficult to me to imagine Nokia and Microsoft gaining share just based on the brand name recognition. Those brands have long ago been devalued, and no longer represent coveted choice.

    1. I agree, Predrag. We can be pretty sure that Apple will win, since Google’s patent portfolio is so weak and Apple’s is so strong. With that win, Apple will move on to a next target and work on disrupting Android development entirely.

    1. Well exactly, MDN says “What about revenue share?” Significant, yes, but profit share is even more in Apple’s favor. It’s safe to assume Apple will be able to stay in front of the others in quality and cost of manufacture, so everyone but Apple is looking at a profitless venture just to be in the game. Moreover, Android’s severe vulnerabilities on patents overhangs the future of that platform.

  5. The worldwide smartphone market is expected to grow 49.2% in 2011

    Not an even 50%???????

    That was the first hint these SOBs have no clue what they are talking about, hiding by such faux precision.

  6. The only advantage for WinPho would be enterprise because IT departments are used to the management software MS has for their devices. BTW,I’m not an IT guy nor am I making a judgement on the enterprise worthiness of iOS. Just saying I think IT depts would push for WinPho over iOS. Even though they repeatedly refer to consumer in the article, there is not an indication that the marketshare numbers are consumer only. I suspect enterprise is part of that equation. I suspect that enterprise will dominate WinPho’s marketshare numbers. Why does that matter? Those users, controlled by IT depts, will be less likely to buy Apps, which means less App revenue and less in-app advertising revenue.

    Android and WinPho will also probably capture a lot of the “whatever phone is cheapest” market. I’m guessing that such consumers are also not a great demographic for app purchases and ad revenue.

    Regardless, as long as Apple keeps in the the 15-20% marketshare. They just need to keep developers interested to stay current. The hardware on the top end will always be similar in specs and there is no reason Apple will suddenly fall drastically behind there, given their in house chip and battery work.

  7. Anyone really think Windoze Phone will be around in 2015? No, didn’t think so.

    Android may well have a greater market share but I couldn’t give a tinker’s toss what other people choose. I really don’t give a toss being a Mac user while the 85%-90% zombies out there use PeeCees.

    The post PeeCee world has only just begun and it’s going to look very different in 2015. If those Apple figures are anything like correct it’ll mean there are a host of Apple post PeeCee devices out there cannibalising their own smartphones sales.

  8. muaaaahahahah! LMAO. These guys need to get their heads out of their asses. Android is going to hell soon. Not too many geeks around to lose time playing with a fragmented OS and norman users don’t have the time to play anymore in order to BECOME a GEEK.

  9. Apple is selling the iPhone as fast as they can grow their distribution and manufacturing. The IDC numbers assume current distribution models projected into the future – but Nokia and Microsoft are currently losing marketshare, so why would things change when you put two has beens together?

    Besides HTC, how’s that android working out as a business model for ya? IDC… you betcha!

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