Dediu pojnts out, “Apple sold 14.8 million iPads in 2010.”
“I sometimes use the phrase ‘unforeseeable growth’ to describe the kind of growth that not even the most knowledgeable observers of a market can predict. It’s usually an indicator that fundamentally transformational change is taking place,” Dedi writes. “It’s not a sufficient condition, but it’s clear that ‘nobody saw it coming’ is a common refrain when disruptions are seen in the rear-view mirror.”
Dediu writes, “If analysts, to a man, fail, you can be sure that competitors are no wiser. This collective shrug amounts to the greatest competitive advantage any entrant could ever hope to obtain.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Add us to your bookmarks Horace. Since the iPad unveiling, we’ve consistently said the analysts’ estimates were too low.
Here are just a few examples:
• January 28, 2010
• February 03, 2010
• March 24, 2010
• April 01, 2010
• April 02, 2010
• September 01, 2010
• October 12, 2010
In fact on June 01, 2010 we wrote, “We’ve been saying that the analysts’ estimates are all too low since they began releasing estimates. Unless, due to some unforeseen event, Apple can’t make more than 10 million iPads this year, the analysts estimates listed [top estimate: 10 million by Broadpoint Amtech’s Dinesh Moorjani] are all still too low.”
On January 27, 2010, the very day the iPad was unveiled, our own SteveJack wrote in our Opinion section, “The iPad has a larger target audience than some people might think” as he explained why he, “along with millions of others” would be buying an Apple iPad. Full article here.
To top it off, in an online poll we ran starting the day of iPad’s unveiling, January 27, 2010 through Jan. 30, 2010, one out of every four MacDailyNews readers correctly predicted that Apple would sell over 10 million iPads in 2010:
How many iPads will Apple sell in 2010?
@MDN:
and what is your 2011 iPad/iPad2 sales forecast?
You win
Nostradamus predicted 14.1 million in 2010.
What did Dvorak predict?
@ TimD
He predicted that he won’t be an idiot for 2011. I think he blew that already. LOL
Following MDN’s links to last year’s stories is very entertaining. While MDN appears to be quite partisan, they consistently predict the future accurately, while no professional analyst or pundit I’ve found ever does.
My condolences on the broken arm you sustained from patting yourselves on the back. Get well soon…
@TimD
The demise of the mouse. And he might be right (just off by 30 years).
Yeah, for all the baloney we find on this site, . . . the ratio of that to sirloin and filet is fairly modest.
It’s my top bookmark.
MDN word “class” appropriate, no?
I have 2 iPads and will pick up the next generation one too if it has FaceTime.
Go on clueless ones. Keep telling yourself what it is not and never see what it is!
The best value Dvorak has, is being an old timer. He was way off on the iPad and any iDevice. He is pretty much locked into 1990s and the old TechTV days with Paul Allen.
17 Mil. People will want to upgrade & all the hold outs, that’s been waiting for V2 with FaceTime.
I have to give MDN (Steve Jack) credit. Sure t[he]y do a lot of hit-whoring with politically oriented stories, but t[he]y nailed iPad sales for 2010.
No consumer will ever buy some useless, over-priced Apple device with the name “iPad”. Scott Moritz named the iPad, the “iFlop”. The iPad will likely turn out to be the worst-selling product Apple has ever made. Why would a consumer pay $499 for a tablet with an iPhone-based OS when they could easily go out and buy a full Windows 7 desktop netbook for half the price?
i always said 15 million. from day one. but of course i don’z have a blog so no one cares and i can’t prove it.
i am so sad… could have been the winner …
and mdn, you sad too low but never dared to give a sales number yourself. coward
correction:
– don’t
– said
sorry.
Partisan? With a name like “Mac Daily News”?
If you know the subject, understand it’s dynamics, and the impact on a group of individuals, it will show on the forecast. If you are just a reader of information, no understanding of the subject, and your degree is statistics- blind sided is often the case on for these people.
They are paper pushers without any real understanding of the subject and often lacking any imagination on tech use.
That is why the average Joe spanks then more often than not. Joe knows. Bob the analyst has no clue and asks Joe for his opinion. Then thinks Joe is too optimist and waters it down to be safe without gong out of the rest of the analysts numbers by any large degree.
Damn, their lemmings!!
Go Joe!
iPad sales estimate for Calendar Year 2011: 40 million
I don’t recall MDN ever posting a prediction for iPad sales. Yeah, you kept saying the analyst estimates were too low, but you never put out your own number.
MDN: fistbump?
@ iphonerulez
Would love to hear that blowhard response to iPad sales. hehe
Oh, maybe he should call himself an iFLOP!
It’s hard to be wrong when one uses the Shot Gun approach. You’re liable to hit something, intentional or not. MDN, usually when estimates are made, the analyst will use *conservative* estimates. MDN, It’s easy to just sit back and say, “estimates are too low”, especially when comparing estimates to actual numbers. At the time estimates are made, how can estimates be “too low”, when one never knows what the actual results will be? Give the analysts some credit for trying to predict the future with nothing more than historical data, latest news, and educated guesses. At least the analysts are underestimating, rather than overestimating.
I love you guys, but I need to put a name down next to a number. I want names. Yea, you heard me right, I want you to name names.
Along with that “pro vs. amateur” analyst competition you linked to two days ago, where the “amateurs” trounced the “pros” concerning Apple’s financial numbers, this just goes to show that we consumers (and MDN in particular) are much wiser than the idiots who get paid to analyze tech data. Sad.