MacDailyNews Take: Simple logic dictates that initial pent-up demand would be higher than on subsequent days.
Elmer-DeWitt continues, “Tello, who is better known on the Web as Deagol (after a Hobbit in J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings), attributes roughly half of the estimated 120,000 first-day sales to ‘pure overexcited fanboism.’ The real demand for Apple’s tablet computer in the weeks before its April 3 release, he says, is probably closer to 30,000 per weekday and half that on weekends… ‘My best guess, although very tentative given the early stage and few data we have so far, would be that they hit the 1 million unit milestone by the second week after it ships,’ he told Fortune. ‘But this is a very speculative guesstimate based on just a weekend of pre-orders.’”
Elmer-DeWitt reports, “Tello’s estimates are based on 120 orders for 137 iPads over 39 hours, starting at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday… Tello’s bottom line estimate: 152,000 pre-orders over 72 hours. This does not include iPads reserved for pick-up.”
Full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Not enough data is known. The marketing has just begun; how will that affect pre-orders? Plus, this only includes on-line pre-orders, not iPads reserved for pickup in Apple Retail Stores.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader "Lynn W." for the heads up.]
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